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The Atlanta Falcons could do with some familiarity
The defending NFC champs are mired in a nasty Super Bowl hangover, with an unimpressive 4-3 SU mark and an even more startling 2-5 record against the spread. And believe it or not, Atlanta has yet to play a divisional game through the first half of the schedule.
The Falcons played three straight against the NFC North – Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit – to open the season, then took a tour of the AFC East, playing Buffalo and Miami at home before trips to New England and the N.Y. Jets.
A Week 9 matchup with a familiar foe like the Carolina Panthers should come as a relief to head coach Dan Quinn and his staff, who have been prepping for mystery opposition every week since September. Better the devil you know, then the devil you don’t, right? And if you look at Quinn’s record against the devil he knows – Carolina – you can see why Atlanta and the points is a smart play this Sunday.
Quinn is 3-1 SU and ATS versus the Panthers since taking over the job in Atlanta. And according to ESPN’s Vaughn McClure, he’s done a number on Carolina QB Cam Newton as well, holding SuperCam to just 53.8 percent completions, five touchdowns, two interceptions and has sacked the dual-threat seven times through four meetings. Quinn's ability to counter Cam goes back to his time as the defensive coordinator in Seattle, where he went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus Carolina. That includes a 31-17 win over the Panthers in the 2014 NFC Divisional Round in which Newton was sacked twice, fumbled twice, and threw two interceptions - one of which was a soul-crushing Pick 6 in the fourth quarter.
The Panthers enter this game off a one-sided win in Tampa Bay last weekend, but have been a terrible bet at home in 2017. Carolina is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS inside Bank of America Stadium and just traded its top wide receiver – Kelvin Benjamin – to the Bills before the deadline. At 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, Benjamin was a big target for Newton on third downs and in the end zone, taking his 32 receptions for 475 yards and two touchdowns to Buffalo.
The Falcons are getting discounted for a sloppy win in East Rutherford last Sunday, barely escaping a wet and wild day in Jersey with a 25-20 win over the Jets. The weather was incredibly bad and left quarterback Matt Ryan to fumble three snaps (losing two) and limited his passing numbers to 62 percent completions for 254 yards and two touchdowns.
Ryan was awesome against the Panthers in 2016, passing for 780 total yards, six touchdowns, one interception, a completion percentage of 78.6, and a passer rating of 135.7. The Falcons won and covered in both matchups and finished with a 4-2 ATS mark against divisional opponents.
Matty Ice & Co. will be happy to see a familiar face in Week 9.
Pick: Falcons +2
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (+9.5, 43.5)
The news that Denver was switching up quarterbacks from Trevor Siemian to Brock Osweiler injected another point and a half to the Broncos’ already-hefty spread at Philadelphia in Week 9, going from +8 to as high as +9.5.
Jeez, the betting public must really dislike Osweiler considering the guy he’s replacing has thrown eight interceptions and totaled just three touchdown passes during Denver’s four-game losing skid. Osweiler heads into Sunday with the simple instructions “protect the ball”. And even if he does this half as well as Siemian, the Broncos defense should give the team a chance to at least cover the spread.
Despite getting thrust into action early and often during that skid, thanks to Siemian’s turnovers, the defense has remained one of the top stop units in the league. Denver is tops in yards allowed (261 ypg against) and boast the best third-down defense in the league, allowing opponents to move the chains on third down just 25 percent of the time.
Sunday’s opponent, Philadelphia, has thrived on converting those third downs, sitting second in the NFL with a 47.79 percent success rate – a clip it will have trouble keeping up against a stingy Denver D. The Eagles also come up against a solid pass rush and have allowed Carson Wentz to be sacked 22 times this season – tied for 10th most. They will miss injured offensive tackle Jason Peters dearly Sunday afternoon.
Denver’s offense isn’t flashy but it does eat up a lot of time. The Broncos are holding on to the football for 31:46 per game, which is just about two minutes less than the Eagles’ NFL-best TOP. The Broncs will keep Wentz and the offense off the field with a clock-chewing, run-heavy playbook for as long as they can and hope their defense can do the dirty work when they can't.
Pick: Broncos +9.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 51)
As of this writing, Ezekiel Elliott is not playing against the Chiefs this Sunday. His six-game suspension starts immediately, pending the NFLPA’s last-gasp effort in the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
There’s never a good time to lose your most valuable player, but having this suspension start right in the middle of the schedule and when the team seems to be picking up steam, could be the death blow to Dallas.
Yes, this roster has plenty of offensive options outside of Zeke, and the offensive line could probably help my slow ass rush for 1,000 yards. But Elliott is a different runner than Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden, who gets the dust blown off his 30-year-old surgically-repaired legs for Week 9. The second-year running back has totaled 413 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last three games and runs with an explosiveness and ferocity that the other backs don't.
One thing that jumps out to me, as a Cowboys fan who never misses a game and as a sports bettor always looking for value, is the risk/reward factor Elliott brings to the table. Dallas has rolled the dice on fourth down five times in those previous three games, picking up the first down on four of those tries – three coming from Elliott runs.
The Cowboys will likely need all the extra possessions they can get to keep pace with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. Dallas’ defense is relying heavily on the pass rush to snuff out plays before they happen. Beyond that, they struggle to make tackles in the open field and defend passes over the top.
This could all change between now and Sunday, if Elliott suits up. But as of right now, I'm grabbing the Chiefs as short pups while that line is still out there.
Pick: Chiefs +1
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 11-12-1 ATS
