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The halfway point of the NFL season is here and it’s a good time to reflect on the best and worst bets after the first eight weeks’ worth of action on the gridiron.
Best ATS teams
Buffalo Bills (5-1-1 ATS)
Big Cat and PFT remind us every week that nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Coincidentally, no one covers the spread like the Bills either. Buffalo is 5-1-1 against the spread and has won outright as an underdog three times already this year.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2 ATS)
When they’re not standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona, the Eagles are taking it to the limit in the NFC East. Philly is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS with wins over the Panthers, Chargers and Redskins. The Eagles are averaging 29 points per game and lead in the league in point differential at + 76.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 ATS)
The Chiefs traded up in the first round of the draft last spring to select a guy they thought would be replacing Alex Smith under center. Smith responded by playing the best half season of his pro career.
Smith has shed the moniker of Captain Checkdown with 2181 passing yards and a league-high 8.42 yards per passing attempt.
Kansas City upset the Patriots at Gillette Stadium as an 8-point underdog on the Thursday season kickoff game and clipped the Eagles 27-20 in Week 2. The Chiefs are 6-2 straight up and against the spread heading into this weekend’s game against the Cowboys.
Worst ATS Team
Arizona Cardinals (1-6 ATS)
Zona’s season was probably toast the minute David Johnson’s wrist exploded Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. The Cardinals stand at 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS and are fresh off a 33-0 shutout loss to the Rams.
Arizona heads into the second half of the season with a 33-year-old career backup at quarterback (Drew Stanton), a 34-year-old as its leading receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) and a 32-year-old who’s been dumped by two teams in less than a year (Adrian Peterson) as its No. 1 running back.
Best Over Team
Houston Texans (Over 5-2)
The Chiefs are actually the best over team through eight weeks (Over is 6-2 in their games), but we already talked about them in the best ATS teams section.
The Texans metamorphosis needs to be discussed here. Houston’s identity used to be about its elite defense and borderline unwatchable offense. The script has been flipped ever since Deshaun Watson became the starting quarterback. The Texans are averaging 34.6 points per game since rookie took over and they’re giving up 30 points per game over their last five games.
The over is 5-0 in Houston’s last five games and 5-2 on the season.
Best Under Team
Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 1-7)
The Steelers scored an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game in 2016 and this year they’re finding the end zone only twice (2.0) a game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had 29 TD passes in 14 games last season and has only 10 (with nine interceptions) through eight games this year.
The defense in Pittsburgh is rock solid helping the Steelers finish under the total in seven of their eight contests.
Season Win Total Review
Vegas and offshore sportsbooks do us the courtesy of setting over/under lines on each NFL team’s season wins total for the upcoming season. Everyone pounces on these lines and bets them for some early NFL action.
No Surprises Here
The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers were both pegged with 4.5 season win totals and both find teams are still in search of their first win of the campaign.
Did Not See That Coming
The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills have surprised a lot of casual and dedicated NFL bettors this year. The Rams are one victory formation away from surpassing their 5.5 season win total while the Bills are keeping pace with the Patriots in the AFC East and need just two more wins to top their preseason projection according to Vegas.
Should Have Seen That Coming
The 2016 Oakland Raiders were extremely fortunate to reach 12 wins on the season. Covers wrote a few articles saying the bubble was bound to burst on this overachieving side in the 2017 campaign, but the Raiders were one of the most popular offseason Super Bowl bets and people were gladly backing the Silver and Black to go over their 9.5 season win total.
Oakland is dead last in the AFC West and has fewer wins than the New York Jets after the first eight weeks of the season. Yikes.
Season Long Trends
Underdogs are barking this season despite the recent hot streak for chalk. Teams getting points were 53-35-1 against the spread after Week 6, but faves struck back in big way going 18-8-2 ATS over the last two weeks. Underdogs are still 61-53-3 ATS (53.5% win rate) on the year.
