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Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 9.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)
I wasn’t sure what to think when the offshores came out with a clunker of a line at -3.5 but bettors quickly jumped all over it in no time flat. I made this game closer to -6 and believe this line will continue to rise quickly.
I’m seeing through the recent success of Cincinnati and its victories over low-level teams as Cleveland and Indianapolis and another against a superior Buffalo team that came up flat. A nice comparison stick is the loss in Pittsburgh 29-14 where Jacksonville handled business 30-9 in the same venue. Both were recent and back-to-back within the past three weeks.
Staring at this total, it’s to no one’s surprise that this will be a defensive struggle. Between these two teams, Jacksonville has shined on the defensive end holding four of seven opponents to single digits which includes one shutout.
The Jaguars won’t have to score many points to clear the low bar they hold right now. If you’re looking for value, the Jaguars right now are your play. If you think the Bengals will stay close, you may want to wait until this line reaches its apex come game day.
This is a game that Jacksonville needs to win to reestablish some sort of home-field advantage and stay within shouting distance of the playoff positions. That makes Jacksonville a value play this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (Pick, 51.5)
This line is moving fast and I can’t argue the trajectory whatsoever. I’m not sure who thought Dallas was on even ground with the Chiefs but they’re going to pay for it come Sunday.
I made this Kanas City -2.5 (-120) or better yet -3 (EVEN). After stumbling at Oakland (in a farce of an ending) following a not-so surprising loss to Pittsburgh, the Chiefs got back off the canvas and looked every bit as good as their season start in their win over Denver this past week. Taking a look at Dallas’ wins this season isn’t exactly a resume builder. The Cowboys beat the Giants, Arizona, San Francisco and Washington.
With the line hovering around the PK to -1, your value is with the superior Kansas City Chiefs asking them to basically win the game outright. No doubt, this line is a tough one to make. Any time you see the Cowboys at home in an underdog position, it looks a little out of whack. Dallas has a fierce following and that’s a factor you can use to your best advantage here as that Cowboy money will keep this line basically to a minimum.
The value play here is KC and don’t look back.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)
This one opened at Oakland -2.5 and quickly established itself on the key number -3 in no time. And the fact that Miami just got rid of their biggest playmaker at the trading deadline doesn’t help the Dolphins’ cause.
I made this game Oakland -3 (-120) but with Ajayi gone and a Miami team that has to be somewhat bewildered, I’m thinking this game has to be at least -4 if not a little more north of that as we stand.
Oakland needs a big-time win to get itself back in the playoff hunt. After a humiliating loss at Buffalo, I see this Raiders team getting pumped up for this one. Oakland can score but Miami doesn’t have the weapons to hang with the Raiders. In fact, Miami has scored over 20 points just once this season.
A few sportsbooks are with the extended moneyline at -3 now and we can expect that to proliferate throughout Nevada and abroad the rest of the week. Because we stand on the key number, this will slow down the crawl early in the week for any chance of this number adding the all-out hook.
The value here is with the Raiders while we stand on the -3. Miami backers just may want to wait for game day as I don’t see too many wise guys storming the counter to play a dead team like Miami at this point.
