Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
October is the month when NFL contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders. Every season is a marathon, not a sprint, and while starting hot in September is important, catching fire in October has a much greater effect on your team's postseason aspirations.
Remember how terrible the Saints' defense looked versus the Vikings in Week 1? Or how Cam Newton shredded a confused secondary in Foxboro? Or when the Jets were leading the AFC East? Or when Big Ben sounded like he was on the verge of retirement? All of these stories are #fakenews a month later.
October has been scary for some teams, while providing tasty treats for others.
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
Eagles are flying
Since a Week 2 loss at Kansas City, a place where visiting teams have rarely won during the Andy Reid era, the Philadelphia Eagles have won six games in a row. After not making the playoffs last year, they shot up to the top of the NFL power rankings. They are the lone remaining team with only one loss.
How did an 7-9 team turn into a contender? It’s easy to say Carson Wentz, but it goes much deeper than that.
In 2016, the NFC East was the most competitive division in the NFL. The Cowboys steamrolled through their non-division games, going 10-0. However, they were only .500 in NFC East contests. The Giants won 11 games to capture a wild-card berth. Washington managed eight wins and missed the playoffs along with the Eagles, who won seven games.
Yet, of those seven wins, four were against teams who made the playoffs. With a rookie quarterback, the Eagles beat four playoff teams. Two of those wins came in Weeks 16 and 17 against NFC East rivals.
That momentum has gotten them off to a fast start in 2017. Their defense has created 13 turnovers, good for fifth in the NFL, while giving up under 20 points a game. They are stopping the run also, allowing only 70 yards per game, good for third-best in the league.
At first glance, the Eagles' biggest concern defensively is their inability to stop the pass. Opposing offenses are racking up over 250 YPG throwing the ball, but this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Out of necessity, offenses are throwing it over 40 times a game against the Eagles. Why? Because they are behind. Philadelphia is outscoring opponents 44-9 in the first quarter. This has led to nine interceptions. Advantage Eagles.
Offensively, the LeGarrette Blount signing was brilliant. Blount doesn't blow you away with flashy runs, but he is very disciplined in the Eagles' zone-running scheme. And Tuesday's acquisition of Jay Ajayi from Miami further solidifies the Philadelphia running game in a way that should allow it to keep opposing defenses honest.
The move to trade up to the No. 2 position and grab Wentz looks like one of the best draft-week trades this decade. If you asked most NFL analysts who they'd want as a quarterback for the next 10 years, many would say Wentz.
It would be a disservice to think Wentz has brought only Pro-Bowl quarterback play to Philadelphia. He has brought the belief that the Eagles can beat anyone in the league. He proved that last year as a rookie, and has already taken the next step in his sophomore season.
There isn't a box left unchecked when you dissect Wentz's play. He has a huge arm, is accurate, can extend plays with his legs, and has learned how to read and manipulate defenses. He seems to have the "it," an impermeable belief in oneself to be successful. That confidence has spread throughout the Eagles organization - and with Wentz, Philadelphia is now capable of beating anybody in the NFL.
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
Patriots are back to doing Patriots things
After starting the season giving up 42, 20, 36, and 30 points, respectively, the Patriots' defense has gotten its act together. Their last four opponents have averaged just 12.75 points per game. As a result, the Patriots have rebounded from a rare 2-2 start to again lead the AFC East with a 6-2 record.
Last year, New England led the NFL in scoring defense, which I believe is the most important stat in judging a defense. In that category, the Pats went from 32nd in the league to 18th in only four weeks. This more than anything has been the biggest improvement on the team.
The real question is why any analyst would expect anything different. The Patriots have a very talented secondary who were making mental errors in September. You would have had to assume that Belichick and Matt Patricia would make adjustments by either teaching their scheme better, or simplifying their concepts to let their players read and react rather than overthink.
Whatever these two great defensive minds did after their embarrassing loss to the Panthers has obviously worked.
Let's not forget about their offense, either. Tom Brady has been hit and hurried more this year than in recent memory. He is also without Julian Edelman, one of his favorite targets. The result? The Patriots are leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage (411 yards per game), and are seventh in scoring (27 points per game). Per usual, the Patriots are one step ahead of the rest of the league by using non-wide receivers in the passing game.
They have four running backs who contribute significantly to the offense. Gronk is being Gronk. Brandin Cooks has taken over Edelman's role as the go-to wide receiver. He has been sure-handed on the short and intermediate routes; aspects of the game which were Edelman's strengths. Cooks also adds the big-play potential that New England hasn't had from its premier receiver since Randy Moss.
The Patriots are for real. They have weaknesses, just like every other NFL team. But no quarterback and coach combo does a better job of hiding weaknesses while maximizing their strengths as Brady and Belichick. Per usual, they should be in the hunt for another title.
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
Saints are marching
Drew Brees has been counted out so many times in his life that being the underdog is where he feels most comfortable. When the Saints started 0-2, with poor defensive performances against the Vikings and Patriots, many counted New Orleans out of the always competitive NFC South.
The Falcons almost won a Super Bowl last year, and the Panthers were the runners-up the previous season. The Bucs looked to be a team on the rise as well, so it was easy to place your bets against the Saints returning to their glory days back when Brees was putting up 5,000 passing yards and winning division titles.
Fast forward six weeks, and the Saints are 5-2 (bye week included). Their offense has regained its form as one of the NFL's most dangerous, something Saints fans have become accustomed to during the Brees/Sean Payton era. They are currently third in yards per game and sixth in points per game.
Brees, unsurprisingly, is having another stellar year. He has a quarterback rating over 100, a 70 percent completion rate, and is averaging nearly 8 yards per attempt. Like Brady, he is getting his running backs very involved in the passing game, with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram sitting second and third on the team in receptions.
A huge change from seasons past is the Saints' ability to run the football. Through seven games, they are averaging 5.4 yards per carry. I guess they didn't need Adrian Peterson after all.
While the offense has regained its form, the defense has been the biggest surprise. Led by Kenny Vaccaro, Cam Jordan, and A.J. Klein, the Saints once again have a credible defense. Vaccaro is having a Pro Bowl year, leading the team in tackles and interceptions. Jordan is the feared pass-rusher that Payton has needed. Klein has been a great offseason acquisition.
At the time, Klein's signing wasn't big news. After sitting behind Luke Kuechly for three years in Carolina, Klein made the most of Kuechly's absence last year, and was rewarded with a nice contract by New Orleans. Watching Klein is like watching a 90 percent version of Kuechly.
He's not as physically talented, but it's obvious that Klein was paying attention to the details of Kuechly's game. He's smart, instinctual, can cover, and runs sideline to sideline extremely well.
When the Saints won their Super Bowl at the end of the 2009 season, their offense was elite and their defense was confusing and opportunistic. This formula is working again, and it finds them leading what will be a very exciting NFC South division race.
Other teams that loved October
Minnesota Vikings
Case Keenum is turning the Vikings into believers one win at a time. He has stayed away from turnovers, and continues to buy extra time in and out of the pocket to create plays down the field for Pat Shurmur's offense.
Their defense is ranked third in the league as well.
This is how you win when your starting quarterback gets injured.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have won four in a row, thanks to their defense and Russell Wilson carrying the offense on his back.
Seattle has been one of the better running teams in the league during the last five years, but rushing the ball is nearly nonexistent today. They may not have a running back reach the 600-rushing-yard mark this year.
I love their defense and Wilson, but teams with pathetic rushing attacks rarely make it deep in the playoffs.
