Every year we see significant turnover at running back across the league. After a draft loaded with budding talents at the position, several starters are looking over their shoulder at a rookie who could take their job.
The following five rushers are projected to start this year, but each of them enters the season with some level of doubt surrounding their ability to be the lead back.
Matt Forte
Competition: Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire
Forte regained his fantasy star status in the first half of the 2016 season, proving to many he still had something left in the tank. Unfortunately, the veteran was running on fumes late in the year, and by the time his 31st birthday arrived in December, he'd be supplanted by Powell.
Entering 2017, Powell appears to have a chance at taking over as the lead back in New York. The 28-year-old has fared well in limited action, while increasing his yard-per-carry average every season of his career. Powell's job won't be an easy one, playing for a rebuilding team with a questionable quarterback situation, but he has an excellent shot at topping 1,000 total yards for the second straight year.
It won't be fun watching Jets games all season, but Powell could deliver low-end RB2 numbers for his fantasy owners if he can leapfrog Forte on the depth chart.
Frank Gore
Competition: Robert Turbin, Marlon Mack, Josh Ferguson
If you draft Gore, you're setting out on a cross-country road trip in a used car that likely won't get you to your final destination - a fantasy championship.
We'd all like to see Gore continue his outstanding career, but everything comes to an end, especially for soon-to-be 34-year-old running backs. Gore will enter the year in the top spot, but the team will certainly try to reduce his workload by getting Turbin and Mack into the mix.
Turbin is a journeyman, who lacks the talent to emerge as a consistent fantasy option. Don't be fooled by the eight touchdowns he scored in 2016. The more intriguing member of the Colts backfield is the rookie Mack, an impressive athlete taken in the fourth round, capable of injecting some life into an otherwise stale rushing attack.
Gore could be a stopgap RB3 for fantasy owners early in the season, but Mack is an intriguing sleeper.
Rob Kelley
Competition: Samaje Perine, Chris Thompson, Matt Jones
Kelley was a surprise last season, usurping an underqualified starter in Matt Jones and giving the Redskins a more reliable option on first and second downs. Now Kelley will find out how it feels to be on the other end of that storyline.
The Redskins were pretty clearly looking for an upgrade at running back and it came when they got a great value in the fourth round of the draft - Samaje Perine. The rookie is a powerful runner, whose receiving skills are overlooked. While he lacks top-end talent, he's a more complete player than Kelley and should beat out his competition during training camp.
Perine is already ahead of Kelley in my rankings and I don't expect that to change. The rookie is an RB3 at the moment, but once we're certain he's the starter, he'll move up into the low-end RB2 conversation for fantasy.
Related: Which rookies will emerge as stars in 2017?
Carlos Hyde
Competition: Tim Hightower, Joe Williams, Kapri Bibbs
Kyle Shanahan can generate a productive running game no matter where he's coaching in the NFL, but all signs seem to be suggesting that the 49ers aren't sold on Carlos Hyde being the beneficiary of that upgraded rushing attack.
Hyde, who has struggled with injuries during each of his three NFL seasons, would have posted his first 1,000-yard campaign if injuries didn't cut his year short. The new front office decided to improve the team's depth, or maybe give Hyde some competition, by signing veteran Tim Hightower and drafting Joe Williams in the fourth round.
Hyde remains a high-end RB2, who could break out as an RB1 if Shanahan crowns him the lead back in San Francisco. Hightower always seems to work his way into a few relevant fantasy weeks each season, but Williams is a favorite of the coaching staff, with the speed and style to excel in this system. He'll be given every opportunity to prove himself, making him worth monitoring throughout the offseason.
Mark Ingram
Competition: Adrian Peterson, Alvin Kamara
Ingram's fantasy outlook took a major hit when the Saints signed Adrian Peterson. It took another less obvious hit when the team moved up to draft Alvin Kamara in the third round, a player who projects to fill the pass-catching role in New Orleans' backfield.
Ingram has been a decent starter for the Saints, and is coming off 1,362 total yards and 10 touchdowns in 2016, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Those are numbers that will be nearly impossible for Ingram to reach barring injuries to his new teammates.
Peterson might be a diminishing version of the future Hall of Fame back we've become accustomed to seeing on Sundays, but he's still going to factor into the game plan in New Orleans and may even capture the starting job if Ingram falters in camp. With Kamara stepping in as Drew Brees' new receiving back, the best case scenario for Ingram would be a trade to a running-back needy team like the Eagles.
Others who should be worried
- Latavius Murray, Vikings - After signing with Minnesota in free agency, Murray now faces stiff competition from second-round pick Dalvin Cook. The offensive line needs to improve before either can be taken seriously as a fantasy starter.
- Ty Montgomery, Packers - The team drafted a pair of potential challengers in Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. Montgomery may turn into a passing-down option if either rookie steps up early.
- Lamar Miller, Texans - Miller played well last season, but questions about his durability remain. Rookie D'Onta Foreman is a bruising back who will carve into Miller's workload and could potentially unseat him if he breaks down again.
- Spencer Ware, Chiefs - Like Miller, Ware has a good chance of holding onto his starting job, but after his contributions dropped off as the season went on in 2016, the arrival of rookie Kareem Hunt is at least a notable threat.
Too obvious to make the list
- Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - When you're over 30 and your team takes a running back in the top 10, it's time to get comfortable with a backup role. Stewart may still serve as a goal-line back, but Christian McCaffrey is the back to own in Carolina.
- Jeremy Hill, Bengals - Regardless of your feelings toward rookie Joe Mixon, he's definitely going to be the Week 1 starter.
