DFS: Finding Value on the Blue Line

by
Christopher Hanewinckel / USA TODAY Sports

The quality of a defenseman is not dictated by how he lights up a stat sheet - unless you're talking fantasy.

With DFS, how do you go about rounding out your lineup? Guessing at defense might work once or twice, but you wouldn't be maximizing your opportunities for success. Oh, but where to look?

Power-Play Production

Check lineups every time you play. Who do the coaches have playing on the power-play? While every hockey fan knows Erik Karlsson, take a look at the other names in the top five of power-play points last season among D-men:

Name Total Points Power-Play Points
Erik Karlsson (OTT) 66 30
Mark Streit (PHI) 52 30
Keith Yandle (NYR) 52 29
Andrei Markov (MTL) 50 25
Kevin Shattenkirk (STL) 44 25

The most intriguing is Shattenkirk. The other four each played over 80 games while Shattenkirk only played 56. Injuries stalled him a bit, but he is poised to be a big member of the Blues' power-play and should be in DFS lineups until his cost becomes too unwieldy.

Plus-Minus and Blocked Shots

Blocked shots will be covered separately, but depending on where you play DFS, plus-minus could impact your lineups.

If plus-minus carries a bonus, there are certain names to target. It's a pretty simple formula. If a team has a bad goaltender, and thus gives up a bunch of goals, the plus-minus is going to be abysmal.

The Oilers allowed more goals than anybody in 2014-15. It comes as no surprise that six of their defensemen had a minus-12 or worse. Meanwhile, the best plus-minus players come from teams with positive goal differentials.

Player 2014-15 Team +/- Team Goal Diff
Jason Garrison Tampa Bay 27 +51
Niklas Hjalmarsson Chicago 25 +40
Hampus Lindholm Anaheim 25 +10
Kevin Klein New York Rangers 24 +60
Ryan McDonagh New York Rangers 23 +60

Some sites also give a bonus for shorthanded points, but they are so infrequent (no defenseman had more than three last season) that they are foolish to try and predict. If you're insistent, monitor consistent penalty killing lineups and you stand a better chance.

Shots on Goal

The defensemen who shoot the most tend to score the most:

Name Goals Shots on Goal
Erik Karlsson (OTT) 21 292
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) 23 264
Brent Burns (SJ) 17 245
Justin Faulk (CAR) 15 238
Shea Weber (NSH) 15 237

If the site you frequent carries a SOG bonus, it gives these players even more value. Karlsson will cost a pretty penny because he does pretty much everything. But, follow shooting trends and when you see a lower or mid-tier player like Johnny Boychuk or Jake Muzzin taking a ton of rips on net, you might be able to spread the scoring around your blueline.

Finding the Right Pairs

Maximize points by picking a defensive pairing likely to be on the ice when points are scored (doubly good if plus-minus is counted). While selecting Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook or Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban will carry a high price, you might be able to target a mid-range pair at a discount.

Keep an eye on prices as the season starts while monitoring lines and ice time to see who is gelling early.

The pairing who consistently notched the most time on ice were Nashville's Roman Josi and Shea Weber, though it's unlikely they will come cheap. Maybe choose Winnipeg's Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers as they won't carry nearly as lofty a price as some others.

The Digest

DFS: NHL Daily Fantasy Primer

by theScore Staff
@emptynetters/Seth Rorabaugh

The skates are sharp, the sticks are taped and the visors are clean.

It's almost time to kick off another NHL season - and theScore is here to prepare you for your quest to conquer the daily fantasy hockey world. Here's a look at our comprehensive DFS hockey offering:

  • Andrew Potter analyzes five players who could be major bargains early in the season.
  • Ken Conrad examines the difference between the "Studs and Duds" lineup approach and the philosophy of building a balanced roster.
  • Jack Eichel, Connor McDavid and the rest of the NHL's top young stars are featured in Josh Wegman's post on five impact rookies.

New to daily fantasy? Here is everything you need to get started:

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