Bet or Bail: Luka's undervalued Mavs, Embiid's return

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We're into the home stretch of the NBA regular season, with only 10 days left.

The play-in tournament has made March basketball meaningful. Over 20 teams are competing for seeding or a spot in the play-in, creating plenty of excitement before the playoffs even begin.

We're focusing on a title contender from each conference in this week's NBA edition of Bet or Bail. Let's dive in.

Bet on Mavs as contenders

Rewind to a year ago this week: The Mavericks ended their disappointing 2022-23 campaign early by sitting their stars and intentionally missing out on a chance to compete in the play-in.

The Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving experiment didn't work in its first test run. One year later, Doncic, Irving, and the best supporting cast Doncic has ever had are on the rise.

The Mavs have won 11 of their last 13 games and covered the spread in all 11 wins.

They've jumped from play-in contender to firmly being in the playoff picture as the No. 5 seed. Dallas was +4400 to win the championship in February and is +2500 now, yet they still have the sixth-best odds to win the West at +1400.

Oddsmakers' calculations miss a key component: Excluding the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, Doncic will enter any playoff series as the best player on the floor.

Doncic is averaging career highs in points (34), assists (9.8), and 3-point percentage (38). He's particularly lethal in the pick-and-roll, which the Mavs, like most teams, rely heavily on. He leads all guards in effective field-goal percentage and scores the fourth-most points per possession on the play. Dallas is tied for the second-most efficient pick-and-roll offense, generating 1.00 points per possession, per NBA Stats.

"Unguardable" is thrown around too often, but the Mavs' pick-and-roll offense deserves the title, and it could carry them deep in the playoffs.

Good luck to any defense keeping its big in drop coverage as Doncic's defender chases over a screen.

How about switching and keeping Doncic in single coverage? The Slovenian leads the league in points off of isolations.

So, why don't teams just blitz Doncic in the pick-and-roll? Well, they do. Doncic is blitzed more than anyone on pick-and-roll possessions. Forcing the ball out of Doncic's hands is the most practical way to stop the Mavs.

The problem for defenses is Doncic can make "any pass against the double-team," as JJ Redick recently said on his podcast.

Making the right read, which Doncic consistently does, puts the ball in his teammates' hands, and reliable shooters and playmakers surround him - that's what makes this Mavs team different than years past.

Below, the Kings attempt to blitz Doncic but he gets the ball out quickly to the slipping screener in the short roll, creating a four-on-three advantage for Dallas that results in a three:

The Mavs have numerous productive players who Doncic can trust when he concedes the ball.

Meanwhile, Irving's been the perfect Robin to Doncic's Batman. He's accepted a decreased role - his scoring's down and his usage rate is as low as it's been since 2015 - but he takes scoring pressure off Doncic, who has a slightly lower usage rate than the previous two seasons.

Dallas' pick-and-roll efficiency and overall offense - it has the NBA's best clutch offensive rating - will carry it through the playoffs. The questions come on the other side of the ball.

The Mavs' defense and size were worrisome during a 15-15 midseason stretch. Dallas acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline to alleviate those concerns, and Gafford's averaged the second-most rebounds for the club, helping improve its rebounding percentage.

The Mavs have the sixth-best defense over the last 15 games after ranking near the bottom of the league for much of the season.

It'll take a near miracle for anyone to beat the champion Nuggets in a series, but Dallas may be Denver's biggest threat. Remember: There's nothing like singular talent in the postseason. The Mavs are worth a flier at +1400.

Can Sixers make a run with Embiid back?

Sixers fans have a long-suffering but hopeful relationship with their team. The last two months have been a lifeless stretch as the club's racked up losses. But the Sixers - and their fans - hope the losing days are behind them, because Joel Embiid's back.

Since his knee injury Jan. 30, the Sixers went 11-18 without him, plummeting to eighth in the East. All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey attempted to steady the ship, while Tobias Harris seemingly tried to throw everyone overboard. But the big man's back, returning in a win over the Thunder on Tuesday.

Embiid was on pace for a historically dominant offensive season. He had the NBA's highest player impact estimate, an advanced stat that tracks a player's value to his team. When Embiid's on the court, the Sixers have a 120.4 offensive rating (second best behind the Celtics) and a 110.5 defensive rating (second best behind the Timberwolves). With Embiid, the Sixers are 27-8 and a championship contender.

But Philly's path to the conference finals, where it hasn't been since 2001, is complicated.

The Sixers are -1100 to make the playoffs. They could sneak into the sixth seed with six games remaining, but will likely be seventh or eighth depending on the play-in tournament results, setting up a first-round series against either the Celtics or Bucks.

Assuming the Sixers stay in the play-in picture: If they lose the first play-in game and draw the Celtics, they can start planning for the offseason. The Bucks, however, are a winnable matchup.

Philly would have to play the Celtics at some point, but facing them in the conference finals with another month of Embiid working back towards 100% health is much different than playing them in mid-April.

There's also the fact Embiid's never finished the playoffs healthy and has consistently underperformed, leading to some early exits. The former MVP looked exhausted and slow in his return. Will two weeks of game action be enough to ramp up Embiid's conditioning?

The Sixers' on-court production pre-injury was enough to consider them a contender - they were +500 to win the East on Feb. 1. And, yes, Embiid's yet to play with midseason upgrades Buddy Hield and Kyle Lowry. But Philadelphia's now +1200 to win the East, behind the Celtics (-140) and Bucks (+310), and their chances will come down to Embiid's conditioning.

That's too big a what-if. Unfortunately for Philly fans, we know how this story ends.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.