NFL season-long props: Fewest points scored

The "race" for the fewest points scored in the NFL last season was a barn burner. The Texans scored just 289 points, living up to their preseason billing as favorites to be inept. The Colts' (50-1) season-long fiasco meant they finished at the same number. The Broncos, who seemed more like a candidate to lead the league in scoring, finished two points worse despite a 31-point explosion in Week 18, paying out tickets at 75-1.

Strangely, the Texans and Colts played a 32-31 shootout in Week 18, as if trying to avoid the infamy of being the league's worst offense. From a betting standpoint, though, it goes to show that it's easier to be surprisingly woeful than it is to be surprisingly electric. This is certainly a market in which you can find a long shot.

Fewest points scored odds

The Cardinals are the favorite to be inept, but what if Kyler Murray shows up at some point? That still might not be enough to win more than a few games, but the Cardinals weren't even in the bottom 10 in scoring last year despite Murray missing the final eight games.

Best bets

Rams (+1400)

The Rams had just 307 points last season as the electric Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp duo missed nine games. Despite optimism following their return to health, it's worth noting the Rams were averaging just 16.4 points in the first eight games of 2022. That pace would put Los Angeles at 278 points on the season - a total bad enough to have been the fewest in 2022.

Kupp's already injured his hamstring this season. Stafford - familiar with bumps, bruises, and worse over his career - isn't getting any younger or more mobile behind a devolving offensive line.

Panthers (+1400)

The Panthers hope to have found their franchise quarterback. They certainly paid enough for him. Having Bryce Young to build around is certainly a step up in Carolina despite some inevitable growing pains. Whether it's a still-developing depth chart on offense that should feel the loss of D.J. Moore in the immediacy or how things have looked in limited action in the preseason, it might be a second season of offensive headaches for Frank Reich - this time in Carolina.

The Panthers used scoring spurts against the Seahawks, Lions, and Falcons (twice) to find their way to the middle of the pack in scoring last year, but Seattle and Atlanta have made concerted efforts to revamp their defenses. If Carolina's new offense, which will suffer from understandable issues with a rookie quarterback, can't take advantage of the few soft defenses on the slate, then the Panthers might end up paying out a decent price in this market.

Jets (+6000)

If we're looking for long shots, the reality is we're betting on something bad to happen. It's just a fact of life. An injury to a 40-year quarterback isn't out of the question, especially one playing behind a shaky offensive line. Aaron Rodgers is also coming off the worst healthy season of his career and fits the profile of Russell Wilson's bad 2022 season.

Speaking of the 2022 Broncos, Nathaniel Hackett, the Jets' new offensive coordinator, was prominently involved in the Broncos' offensive dehydration last year. While Rodgers' arrival is exciting for New Yorkers, last year's offense scored just seven points more than the Texans and Colts. So whether it's another step back from Rodgers or one bad hit, the Jets are too close to reverting to last season's production to not bet at 60-1.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.