2023 New York Jets betting preview: Not enough substance in Rodgers' arrival?
The Jets set an offseason record by creating the most buzz for the acquisition of a signal-caller with a quarterback rating lower than his current age.
Aaron Rodgers brings a new haircut, a refreshed zest for public appearances, and his 39.3 QBR to New York. Meanwhile, we're tasked with trying to figure out what that means for a team that claims to have a complete roster.
We could remind you of the Jets' 8-9 record against the spread, but given that most betting is done by focusing on the QB, isn't it more important to look at Rodgers' ATS record? Well, he too was 8-9 against the number last year.
By the end of last season, the Jets were a better team with Zach Wilson on the bench but still weren't close to an average team (their rating never went higher than 40). Meanwhile, the Packers were very much an average squad, but that hasn't stopped the betting market from being optimistic about the Jets' chances.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +250 |
| Conference | +1000 |
| Super Bowl | +1600 |
| Estimated rating | 60/100 |
The Jets are the seventh choice for the Super Bowl. Interestingly, they have shorter odds than the Ravens despite Baltimore having a higher implied average win probability while playing in a slightly more difficult division. This marginal difference is due to the market being more attracted to the big payout of a Super Bowl bet versus a win total bet on the over.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF -1.5 |
| 2 | @DAL | DAL -2.5 |
| 3 | NE | NYJ -4.5 |
| 4 | KC | KC -2 |
| 5 | @DEN | NYJ -1 |
| 6 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 8 | @NYG | NYJ -1.5 |
| 9 | LAC | NYJ -2 |
| 10 | @LV | NYJ -2.5 |
| 11 | @BUF | BUF -4 |
| 12 | MIA | NYJ -2.5 |
| 13 | ATL | NYJ -6.5 |
| 14 | HOU | NYJ -8.5 |
| 15 | @MIA | MIA -1.5 |
| 16 | WSH | NYJ -5.5 |
| 17 | @CLE | NYJ -1 |
| 18 | @NE | NYJ -1 |
Eight of the Jets' first nine games have projected point spreads of inside a field goal. That's somewhat unbecoming of a team that's No. 7 in the Super Bowl market, and dangerous if Rodgers has a hard time connecting with his new teammates or getting much out of the veterans he's hand-picked to come with him.
Based on the respective ratings, the Chiefs (74) would be worth 20 out of 27 on a point spread valuation, while the Jets would be worth 16.2. That's a 3.8 difference in their Week 4 matchup before accounting for home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium. With the line offered below KC -2 and the importance of capturing the key number of -3, I would jump on the Chiefs before the market corrects downwards on the Jets.
What's to like about the Jets
Jets QBs completed 57% of their passes for 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while getting sacked 42 times last year. Even if Rodgers was turning 50, he can do better than that.
The Jets' defense surrendered only 4.8 yards per play last season, tied with the Eagles for the fewest in the NFL. They discovered a shutdown cornerback in Sauce Gardner, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year despite swiping only two interceptions. If he's shrinking the field for the rest of the Jets' secondary, while Quinnen Williams is taking up double- and triple-teams for the front seven, life will feel a lot easier for their teammates, and head coach Robert Saleh can scheme up problems for opposing QBs.
What's not to like about the Jets
The Jets gave up 20+ points in their first four games last season, but the defense then inflated the metrics with wins over Skylar Thompson, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Trevor Siemian in four of their next seven games (with two losses to Mac Jones in that stretch). They also got the benefit of another look at Thompson in Week 18. It's possible that outside of Williams and Gardner, the defensive talent of this squad is OK.
However, with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert on the slate in the first nine games, and the possibility of Tua Tagovailoa available for the games with Miami, the defense has a whole new set of challenges.
Ideally, a 40-year-old QB would have a good offensive line, but that's not the case for Rodgers. Left tackle Duane Brown is mediocre at best, and Mekhi Becton, the tackle on the other side, has played one game in two years.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | MVP | +1600 |
| Most passing yards | +2000 | |
| Most passing TD | +650 | |
| Breece Hall | Offensive POTY | +4500 |
| Most rushing yards | +2000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +2500 | |
| Comeback POTY | +2500 | |
| Garrett Wilson | Offensive POTY | +2800 |
| Most receptions | +2500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +2000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2200 | |
| Sauce Gardner | Defensive POTY | +1500 |
| Quinnen Williams | Defensive POTY | +3000 |
| Most sacks | +6500 | |
| Robert Saleh | Coach of the Year | +1600 |
Rodgers is coming to New York to stabilize the QB position, not to win MVP, and 16-1 odds for him to do so with Nathaniel Hackett calling plays is downright laughable. If Rodgers accomplishes that basic task, it'll take credit away from Saleh, who's also unlikely to win Coach of the Year.
The market is giving Gardner credit for winning DROY, but that was a nod to his effect on a team compared to a small subset of players. Teams aren't going to all of a sudden start throwing his way more, and he's therefore unlikely to rack up interception totals that would earn him Defensive Player of the Year honors.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.