2023 Philadelphia Eagles betting preview: Built to last
One ill-timed grasp of a jersey in the line of sight of an official, and that was it for the Eagles' championship chances. The Chiefs ran down the clock in Super Bowl LVII, thwarting Philadelphia's hopes of winning a second somewhat surprising Lombardi Trophy in five years.
The Eagles' 2022 schedule set them up nicely for a hot start, but an 8-0 and 13-1 beginning to the season was surprising, especially with the team lined at 9.5 wins and considered the second choice in the NFC East behind the Cowboys.
Philadelphia cleared its win total by 4.5 with a joint-best 14-3 record, but the betting market caught on to its quality quickly. It finished the season 3-7 against the number for an overall spread betting record of 8-9. As often happens when it comes to good teams, if you were buying on the Eagles, you better have done it early.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.5 (+100/-120) |
| Division | -130 |
| Conference | +250 |
| Super Bowl | +750 |
| Estimated rating | 71/100 |
Presumably out of respect for a tough schedule, oddsmakers opened the Eagles with a regular-season win total of 10.5 back in May. That's been deemed too low, as they're up to 11.5 with just minimal juice on the under. That pushes their estimated market rating up into the 70s, making them a championship favorite comparable to the Chiefs and Bengals - and putting them ahead of the 49ers, their most reputable competition in the NFC.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NE | PHI -4.5 |
| 2 | MIN | PHI -7 |
| 3 | @TB | PHI -7 |
| 4 | WSH | PHI -7 |
| 5 | @LAR | PHI -6.5 |
| 6 | @NYJ | PHI -1 |
| 7 | MIA | PHI -4 |
| 8 | @WSH | PHI -4 |
| 9 | DAL | PHI -3 |
| 11 | @KC | KC -3 |
| 12 | BUF | PHI -2.5 |
| 13 | SF | PHI -2.5 |
| 14 | @DAL | DAL -1 |
| 15 | @SEA | PHI -2 |
| 16 | NYG | PHI -7 |
| 17 | ARI | PHI -11 |
| 18 | @NYG | PHI -3 |
The Eagles are projected favorites in 15 of 17 games, and while they also have the most games lined at a touchdown or more, there are more challenging matchups on the schedule than last year. Let's look at one of the showdowns - an NFC Championship rematch with the 49ers - to see why power ratings are just a starting point for making a point spread.
Using an estimation of 27 being the highest possible point spread in the modern NFL, the Eagles' 71/100 rating gives them 19.1 points. At 63/100, the 49ers are worth 17 points. That's a 2-point difference on a neutral field, but the point spread is 2.5. On the surface, that assigns Philadelphia just a half point of home-field advantage. However, oddsmakers will be slow to give bettors a chance to back a contending team like San Francisco getting a full field goal.
What's to like about the Eagles
Jalen Hurts probably won't replicate the jump he made from his first full season as starter in 2021 to MVP favorite before he got hurt late in the 2022 season. But that doesn't mean he can't get better. His ability to convert short yardage plays for first downs shrinks the field for what's required on first and second down, giving the Eagles a natural advantage. Philadelphia also returns all but one starter on offense. Even the one change - swapping Miles Sanders for D'Andre Swift at running back - is arguably an improvement.
The Eagles are so well-built that they use first-round picks just to fill depth. In 2022, they added mountainous defensive tackle Jordan Davis, only to need him for about 30% of snaps. They picked another Georgia star, Nolan Smith, at the end of this year's first round with no guarantee of starting him. That embarrassment of riches meant the Eagles could roll the dice on Jalen Carter with an earlier first-rounder, adding him to a defense that allowed the fewest yards per play and yards per pass attempt.
What's not to like about the Eagles
This section should be brief. The schedule has regular high-end matchups, and the division is the toughest in the NFC. The Eagles' success came at the cost of both offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. However, even if Philadelphia somehow didn't win the NFC East or earn home-field advantage again because of an artificially depressed record, its personnel and plan are good enough to overcome a fair amount of adversity.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | MVP | +1100 |
| Most passing yards | +2800 | |
| Most passing TD | +6500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +1300 | |
| D'Andre Swift | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Comeback POTY | +5000 | |
| Most rushing yards | +7000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +7500 | |
| A.J. Brown | Offensive POTY | +4500 |
| Most receptions | +5000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +2500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +1500 | |
| DeVonta Smith | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most receptions | +5000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +4500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2500 | |
| Haason Reddick | Defensive POTY | +2500 |
| Most sacks | +1800 | |
| Darius Slay | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Jalen Carter | Defensive POTY | +18000 |
| Defensive ROTY | +700 | |
| Nolan Smith | Defensive ROTY | +2200 |
| Nick Sirianni | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
Sanders was fifth in the NFL in rushing last year, but Swift has the talent to surpass that if the Eagles let him. However, they're deep at tailback, too.
Only Jamaal Williams had more rushing touchdowns than Hurts last year - and the Eagles quarterback missed two games.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.