Assessing the Leafs' goaltending options ahead of trade deadline
The Toronto Maple Leafs' goaltending situation officially reached a red alert.
Petr Mrazek has completely lost his confidence. His .884 save percentage is third-worst among goalies with at least 10 starts this season. His minus-12.61 goals saved above expected ranks 100th out of 105 netminders. It's undoubtedly the worst stretch of the 30-year-old's career. And he's in the first season of a three-year deal with a $3.8-million cap hit.
Jack Campbell, meanwhile, is out for at least two weeks with a rib injury and struggled mightily before landing on injured reserve. His season has been a tale of two halves:
| Date range | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|
| 1st 20 games | .942 | 13.57 |
| Last 20 games | .885 | -20.22 |
Campbell had reportedly been battling the injury for a while, so it's safe to assume it affected his performances. However, banking on him to regain his early-season form when he returns from injury seems unwise. It may take Campbell a while to get back into a rhythm.
So, how should general manager Kyle Dubas address the position ahead of the March 21 trade deadline? We dive into his options below:
Sink or swim with Mrazek/Campbell
This will undoubtedly be the least popular option among Leafs nation, but there's a chance Dubas stands pat in goal. Sticking with in-house options would allow the GM to use his cap space and best trade assets to add a top-four defenseman and/or a top-six winger.
Plus, Mrazek has negative value on the trade market. It would likely be easier to get rid of him this offseason. As much as he's struggling now, he can't stay in this funk forever, can he?
It's also fair to argue that a healthy Campbell is better than most options available. But is Dubas willing to risk the 2021-22 season, and potentially his job, over it? Probably not.
Go all-in for Fleury
Marc-Andre Fleury is the most proven goaltender available, and the Leafs reportedly inquired about him. Fleury's contract contains a 10-team no-trade list, but the Blackhawks won't send him anywhere he doesn't want to play. Toronto apparently isn't one of his preferred destinations, but there's still time for that to change.
Fleury, a pending UFA, has a $7-million cap hit, so Chicago would need to retain half. A third team may even have to jump in to eat an additional 25%.
However, this has the potential to turn into a real blockbuster deal. The Blackhawks don't have an NHL goalie signed for next season, so perhaps they'd be willing to take Mrazek if Toronto added a sweetener. If the Leafs are willing to add more assets, maybe they could get defensive-minded, pending UFA blue-liner Calvin de Haan out of the deal, too. That would fill multiple needs, but the price would be very steep.
Fleury, 37, still has some gas left in the tank. He and Campbell would form a very solid - and likable - tandem entering the playoffs.
Add a mid-tier option
The following goalies are all enjoying stellar campaigns but shouldn't cost as much as Fleury.
Semyon Varlamov, Islanders
Varlamov surrendered his starting gig to Ilya Sorokin, but he still owns a respectable .912 save percentage in 19 games. The 33-year-old is signed through next season at a $5-million cap hit, which could be too pricey for Toronto if New York is unwilling to take Mrazek back.
Anton Forsberg, Senators
Forsberg has found a home in Ottawa this campaign, posting a .916 save percentage in 29 games. The 29-year-old journeyman carries a $900,000 cap hit and is a pending UFA. The Senators might try to extend Forsberg. Would they be willing to trade him to their provincial rivals if they don't?
Braden Holtby, Stars
The 2016 Vezina winner is having a nice bounce-back year after two subpar seasons. Holtby owns a .913 save percentage in 24 games and is a pending UFA with an affordable $2-million cap hit. The Stars may not be sellers anymore, but Holtby could still be an option considering Jake Oettinger has taken the starting reins.
James Reimer, Sharks
Wouldn't this be fitting? The former Maple Leaf is still a reliable option at age 33, posting a .916 save percentage in 34 contests. Reimer's signed through next season with a $2.25-million cap hit, but his current injury complicates things.
Anthony Stolarz, Ducks
Stolarz lacks NHL experience (55 career games), but he's recorded a .919 save percentage in 21 appearances in 2021-22. However, the Ducks may want to hang on to him as their backup considering he's signed through next campaign at just $950,000.
Roll the dice with a bargain
The following goalies likely won't cost much, but each has their warts.
Craig Anderson, Sabres
If any team knows that Anderson still has game, it's the Leafs. The 40-year-old stoned Toronto twice this month. Anderson has recorded a respectable .907 save percentage in 18 games this season and makes the league minimum. At the very least, he could be a cheap option while Campbell recovers and Mrazek works out the kinks behind the scenes.
Martin Jones, Flyers
Jones has plenty of playoff experience (62 games) and is only 32 years old. His .900 save percentage this campaign is his best since 2017-18, but the pending UFA's $2-million cap hit is attainable.
Karel Vejmelka/Scott Wedgewood, Coyotes
The Arizona tandem has been surprisingly effective this season. Wedgewood (UFA) and Vejmelka (RFA) are on expiring sub-$1-million contracts, and each own save percentages above .900. Arizona needs to get to the cap floor for next year, so it may be willing to take on Mrazek for a sweetener, as they did with Nick Ritchie.
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)