NFL Week 16 player props: Looking for that special gift

At this point, it's difficult to predict who's going to play, let alone how someone will play. That said, last week's 7-3 record brings us to 90-63-1 on the season. With limited options on the board, let's hold our breath and hope circumstances don't drastically change for any of our Week 16 plays.

Marcedes Lewis anytime touchdown (+650)

We're hoping for a Marcedes this Christmas. Even though this bet is more likely than a Benz in the driveway, we'll probably lose it. That said, Lewis has had multiple receptions just short of the goal line and missed end-zone targets ever since Robert Tonyan suffered a torn ACL. Let's see if the Packers' jolly big man can gift us a touchdown.

Nick Chubb over 16.5 yard longest rush

If you're looking for something more conservative, the Browns will be driving their midsized sedan down the field. Let's bet on Chubb to pop one for a decent chunk of yardage against a mediocre Packers run defense.

Christian Kirk over 58.5 receiving yards

Like a reliable Christmas gift for dad, when it works once, you go back to it. Last week, we played Kirk to go over his receiving yards total on the premise that he'd see an uptick in targets without DeAndre Hopkins. Do a season-high 12 targets qualify? Kirk also caught nine balls for 94 yards. There's no reason not to run it back this week, as it's a better bet than dad liking the new tie you bought him.

Tee Higgins over 64.5 receiving yards

With the Ravens' quarterback uncertainty, there's less to choose from in this prop market than at the local mall on Christmas Eve. So, we'll look to the Bengals for a bet. Baltimore became keenly aware of Ja'Marr Chase when he torched the Ravens in their first meeting. Instead, we'll turn to Tee Higgins, who had 15 targets against Baltimore in that game.

Mac Jones under 224.5 passing yards

Jones famously had a silent night in Buffalo three weeks ago. Even with the weather expected to be a little more pass friendly, I'll bet the Patriots try to keep the ball on the ground again. The Bills will also do a better job of ball control, meaning Jones won't have the opportunity to rack up yards.

Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown (+150)

Pitts only has one touchdown this season, yet he leads the Falcons in receiving by 292 yards. That doesn't add up. Look for Arthur Smith to put an end-zone target or two in Pitts' stocking against the Lions this week.

James Robinson anytime touchdown (-115)

We're handing out anytime touchdowns like the creepy-looking Grinch giving back the presents he stole.

While the Jaguars haven't played much better since getting rid of Urban Meyer, at least we know Robinson will get the appropriate usage in a very winnable game for Jacksonville.

Mike Williams anytime touchdown (+115)

The real reason there are so many anytime touchdowns on our card is the utter lack of options on Christmas Day in the time of COVID. The Chargers are without their goal-line wrecking ball in Houston, but at least they have their big red-zone target in Williams.

Matthew Stafford under 280.5 receiving yards

The Vikings should have an elaborate book on Stafford since he's faced them 21 times in his career. With a must-win home game for Minnesota and a relatively clean injury report for its defense, let's see if Mike Zimmer's group can step up and slow down the Rams' offense.

Dak Prescott under 278.5 passing yards

Prescott couldn't have had an easier game script during the Cowboys' visit to Washington, and even he could only accumulate 211 yards while throwing it 39 times. With Washington healthier than the version we saw Tuesday, I'll fade Dak to light up the scoreboard Sunday night.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.