TNF player props: Who finds paydirt in this AFC West clash?
It's the penultimate Thursday Night Football game of the season, and we've been rockin' and rollin' with the player props to begin each week. With two games to go, we're sitting at 6-3 (+2.55 units) on yardage props, 4-5 (+3 units) on touchdowns that will definitely happen, and 2-7 (+7.5 units) on long-shot touchdowns.
Maybe we're not ready to purchase land on the sun-splashed shores of Los Angeles with our 13 units, but the Chiefs are making the trip inland to Super Bowl LVI's "Stadium Arcadium." With both teams dreaming of February "Californication," we'll get the vibes right with L.A.'s unofficial king of rock, Anthony Kiedis and the Red Hot Chili Peppers.
"Higher Ground" game
If oddsmakers "Can't Stop" setting Patrick Mahomes' passing yards totals close to 300 against the Chargers, then we'll keep taking the "Otherside." We continually see L.A. use a two-high safety zone defense against K.C., making Mahomes turn to the run game.
"By The Way," with Chris Jones out for the Chiefs, the Chargers should be able to run the ball themselves and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. Add in K.C.'s renewed patience on offense, its capable crew of ball carriers, and a banged-up Austin Ekeler, and there's no one to pinpoint here for an over. Instead, we'll fade Mahomes in the passing game.
Pick: Mahomes under 289.5 passing yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
As usual, the tongue-in-cheek definite touchdown bet comes at a price where sportsbooks won't "Give It Away." However, there's a good chance Mahomes tells Clyde Edwards-Helaire to "take me all the way" down the field against L.A.'s soft run defense. As we know, the Chargers are fine with opponents turning to the run game, as Edwards-Helaire had his most productive game of the campaign in their first matchup.
The Chiefs' running back scored twice from in close last week, so the goal-line carries are there - and of course, he can also turn a screen pass into six points.
Pick: Edwards-Helaire anytime TD (+100)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
If you're thinking Justin Herbert scoring a touchdown doesn't come with the juicy payout we often see here, "I'm With You." However, with so many scoring options for both sides, everyone occasionally near a football is priced more tightly. There isn't one player taking all the win probability, providing value on a long shot to have "One Hot Minute."
We've had some "Scar Tissue" built up due to some failed backings for a quarterback rushing touchdown. But Herbert is certainly capable of using his legs to score from distance, so we'll consider losses on Aaron Rodgers, Taysom Hill, and Derek Carr water "Under The Bridge." Also, with L.A.'s pass-catchers posing a size mismatch for K.C.'s secondary, we could see a pass interference call in the end zone resulting in a sneak opportunity from the 1-yard line.
Pick: Justin Herbert anytime TD (+400)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.