NFL Week 11 player props: Finding value down the board to stay hot

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Even I couldn't believe how well the Week 10 player props did. In the throws of the usual Sunday mayhem, I looked at the boxscore for Browns-Patriots and saw Kendrick Bourne had caught a 48-yard pass, which would have lost our play on Mac Jones' longest completion being under 36.5 yards. Except that Brian Hoyer threw the completion! What a pleasant surprise from a game not worth watching past halftime.

With that, we finished the day 8-2 and sit at an outstanding 63-39-1 on the season.

Baker Mayfield under 26.5 pass attempts

The Browns are favored by double digits, and the number is climbing. Cleveland blows out teams when the defense causes havoc in an opponent's backfield and the offense runs effectively to allow deep passes for Mayfield. The Browns don't want a high-volume passing approach, and the Lions won't induce that.

Latavius Murray anytime TD (+140)

The Ravens cut Le'veon Bell this week, which would seem to make room on the roster for Latavius Murray's return after missing the last three games with an ankle injury. Murray recorded four touchdowns in six games before missing time, and no one on the Ravens has grabbed the short-yardage rushing reigns. While he won't get a ton of carries, he'll be back in there at the goal line against the Bears' shoddy run defense.

D'Onta Foreman over 58.5 rushing yards

The first of a rare two-in-one game for our weekly prop plays. We'll start with a Texan draftee who's in line for a bigger role this week for Tennessee.

Foreman was a rookie in 2017 with Houston the last time he got his shot. He averaged six yards per carry in the game before being carted off with a leg injury. Foreman wasn't the same after returning, and he eventually missed the entire 2019 season. Following 22 carries last campaign, the former Texas Longhorn is once again ready for the workload this Sunday against his former team.

David Johnson over 35.5 rushing + receiving yards

Admittedly, this is a deep pull, but the Texans are now three weeks removed from trading Mark Ingram, and the touches are up for grabs in their backfield. After Houston turned the ball over four times in Miami, look for Tyrod Taylor to keep it conservative and include Johnson in the passing game, as well as in a handful of read-option carries. All it takes is one decent gain by a player who could be getting an increase in snaps after the bye week.

Jack Doyle (+600), Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD (+500)

Let's split one unit evenly between the Colts' two primary tight ends. In last season's wild-card game, Indianapolis' tight ends combined for 14 receptions, 136 yards, and a touchdown. With a clear matchup advantage and some potentially sketchy weather in Orchard Park, expect the Colts to work the short middle of the field and the play-action pass in the red zone. We'll net at least two units on this gambit if one of these two tight ends can score, and who knows, maybe both do?

Myles Gaskin over 22.5 receiving yards

We've used this angle to great success in the past as the Jets continue to be terrible at defending running backs in the passing game. Opposing running backs average 7.5 receptions and 71.4 yards per contest against New York this season. Myles Gaskin has averaged five targets per game when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa starts, so look for him to get a couple of extra looks versus the Jets.

Cam Newton under 199.5 passing yards

I know this number seems low, but doesn't that confirm the likelihood of Cam Newton coming off the couch and succeeding instantly as a starting NFL quarterback?

Ron Rivera should have a pretty good idea of what throws he'd like to force Newton to make, and he's more than aware of Christian McCaffrey's ability out of the backfield. Newton will struggle in his first full game of action.

Jeff Wilson Jr. over 79.5 rushing yards

I know this number seems high, but Wilson will be the featured running back with Elijah Mitchell doubtful to play. Wilson recorded 10 carries as the second option last week. Anytime you can pinpoint a specific 49ers runner to get the most carries, you take your chances on their over.

Joe Burrow over 267.5 passing yards

This is the same handicap that we had for the "Patrick Mahomes over" last week. Joe Burrow can go over his total in a highly competitive game or in a blowout. Why run it back again? I don't trust the Raiders coaching staff to make any discernible changes defensively, and they don't have the depth to do so anyway.

Cedric Wilson over 34.5 receiving yards

With Amari Cooper out, the initial thought is the volume will be shifted to CeeDee Lamb. Maybe it will be, but his 80.5 yards total is clearly adjusted for that. With Michael Gallup returning from injury, the first instinct is to assume he'll replace some of Cooper's volume, but his 54.5 yards total also indicates that. So we'll play the receiver that has a low total but should see an increase in volume in three-receiver sets.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

NFL Week 11 player props: Finding value down the board to stay hot
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