NFL Week 4 round-robin moneyline parlay: Dumpster diving for value

Oh, what could have been. The Dolphins took a 14-0 lead against the Raiders, gave up the lead, rallied to force overtime, had the opportunity to secure the win - and came up short. As a result, we "only" hit four of five last week. Instead of contracting plans for an extension on the doubloon silo, we're settling for a modest overflow from our stash under the mattress.

Our underdogs are now 11-4 on the season, with an OT loss, a missed chip shot at the last, and a Colts three-point loss to the Rams. We've covered a season's worth of football betting lottery tickets - and then some.

But we're not done yet.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay. If three teams pull the upset, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win? We go swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.

Unfortunately, it only gets more difficult from here. The more games teams play, the more oddsmakers adjust, and the fewer opportunities for a live underdog remain. Eventually, the ones that do present themselves are downright gross.

Who to play

New York Giants +300

Case in point, we might as well get this one out of the way first.

The Saints got a fair number of bounces in last week's road win against the Patriots, including a pick-6, a quasi-pick-6 that led to a pass Jameis Winston should see intercepted nine times out of 10, and a blocked punt. New Orleans now gets its first home game, but the market has overreacted to that narrative bump.

For all the disgrace that accompanies a home loss to the Falcons, the Giants' offense went for 6.1 yards per play against Washington and 5.4 against Atlanta, besting both opponents in that regard. New York now goes on the road, where it's performed better so far this season. We'll take a shot on the Saints continuing their up-and-down season and playing to the bottom of their range. Let's hope the Giants play to the top of theirs.

Detroit Lions +130

I warned you: There are some real beauties this week, with another 0-3 squad live to get its first win of the season. The Lions have more talent than they're given credit for, and they could face either Justin Fields (who threw six completions for a single net passing yard last week) or Nick Foles (who is Nick Foles). After matchups with the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens, a clash with the Bears might be sweet relief for Dan Campbell's defense.

Arizona Cardinals +200

Good news: We get to bet on Kyler Murray.

Bad news: We have to bet on Kliff Kingsbury.

This number has come down, eliminating some of the value that existed on Monday and Tuesday. That said, this could be a letdown spot for the Rams after their big win over the Buccaneers. The Cardinals phoned in a win over the Jaguars last week, but we expect Murray and Co. to go shot for shot with the Rams here. And since we're getting 2-1 on our money, we'll take the rare opportunity to back Arizona as a decent-sized underdog.

New England Patriots +240

Save your narrative nonsense - we're getting Bill Belichick as a home underdog. Sure, he and the Patriots are facing Tom Brady after a loss. But if anyone knows what Brady wants to do, it's Belichick. Does New England have the horses to hang in? That remains to be seen. But the Buccaneers' pass defense has been more than a little shaky so far this season.

As mentioned, the Patriots' loss last week wasn't as lopsided as the scoreboard suggested. At this price, we'll see if New England can rattle its old franchise cornerstone.

Las Vegas Raiders +165

Time for an admission: The Raiders are better than I thought. Derek Carr outperformed my expectations last week - and the week before that. And though Las Vegas isn't necessarily better than the Chargers, there's reason to believe Monday night's game will be a coin flip.

The Chargers covering this number would indicate a consistency I'm waiting to see before believing; if this is a three-point game in either direction, getting a +165 price on the moneyline will be a good bet, win or lose.

Here's how the odds shake down this week:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.