Super Bowl LV betting preview: What to know ahead of Chiefs vs. Bucs
Surely you've read everything you can find in the lead-up to Super Bowl LV between the Chiefs (-3.5, 56.5) and Buccaneers - from MVP odds to game props to the Gatorade color dumped on the winning coach. But what about a good ol' fashioned side bet? We've got you covered. Here are some of the key trends and X-factors you need to know before wagering on Sunday's game.
Trends and results
If you just look at the surface-level numbers, it's hard not to like the Bucs. They rank No. 1 in weighted DVOA and have covered six of their last eight games dating back to a Week 12 ATS win over the Chiefs, which was one of Tampa Bay's four ATS wins in five tries as an underdog.
Conversely, Kansas City had lost nine straight ATS - depending on the number in Week 15 - before defeating the Bills for the AFC championship, which marked the team's fourth ATS win in its last five playoff games. The Chiefs have also won all seven of Patrick Mahomes' starts coming off a week of rest, going 4-3 ATS in that spot.
Kansas City coach Andy Reid has been a wizard with an extra week to prepare, boasting a 21-11 ATS record in his career with a 6-3 ATS record in the playoffs. The rest of the situational trends skew Tampa Bay's way. Wild-card teams are 7-2-1 ATS in the big game, while Super Bowl teams avenging a regular-season loss of a touchdown or less are 6-2-1 ATS in the title rematch.
Tom Brady is also 38-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, with 33 outright wins in 56 tries. He's the last quarterback to win consecutive titles and hopes to spoil the Chiefs' bid - defending champions are 6-7 ATS in the Super Bowl, including 0-4 ATS when giving fewer than 6.5 points.
X-factors
Chiefs' offensive line vs. Buccaneers' pass rush
Eric Fisher's season-ending injury last week earned at least one mention from most talking heads, but it's mostly been treated as a footnote amid a flood of information. Make no mistake: this is a big deal, and it could be a deciding factor in this game.
The injury forces Mike Remmers, who has played zero snaps at left tackle since 2016, into a new spot with just two weeks to prepare for the biggest assignment of his life. The Bucs won't make it easy - they rank third in pressure rate (27.9%) and fifth in blitz rate (39%), and the duo of Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett is a nightmare for opposing tackles.
Remmers moving to left tackle also forces right guard Andrew Wylie to kick out to right tackle, leaving two inexperienced linemen at arguably the worst spots against this Tampa Bay front. If they can't hold up, that will decide this matchup.
Tyreek Hill vs. Buccaneers' secondary
The last time these two teams played, Hill exploded for a career-high 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 15 catches, with much of that coming in the first quarter. It simply can't happen again if the Buccaneers are to win Sunday.
Their defense ranked near the league average against wide receivers during the regular season - even with the Hill explosion - and they've done an admirable job containing the likes of Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, and Terry McLaurin this postseason. Still, Tampa Bay's secondary has been vulnerable to the deep shot, which looms every time Hill steps on the field.
Tom Brady vs. Steve Spagnuolo
In some ways, Sunday's contest for Brady is personal; he faces the defensive coordinator that robbed him of football's greatest achievement. Spagnuolo's game plan with the Giants foiled the undefeated Patriots in 2008 - forcing Brady into what's arguably the quarterback's worst Super Bowl performance - and he's 3-2 against Brady in his career, including 2-0 with the Chiefs.
Pressure is the name of the game for Spagnuolo's defense, which blitzes 35.7% of the time with a top-five knockdown rate (12%). Brady struggled under duress this year but found success in Week 12's loss to the Chiefs, when he threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns with just one sack. If Spagnuolo can dial up some pressure, Sunday could be a different story.
Best bet
Under 56.5
I know what you're thinking: You aren't giving out a pick against the spread? And you aren't taking the over? Both may seem blasphemous, but the line is too spot-on - the Bucs are the more complete team, but Mahomes has a funny way of rendering advantages obsolete in games of this magnitude.
Both defenses are being overlooked, though, and there's value on fading such a high total. The under is 8-2-1 in the Super Bowl with a total of at least 50, including each of the last two years. The weather could also suppress the scoring in this rematch, which also went under in Week 12. It may not be fun, but the under is the safest play to make Sunday.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.