Super Bowl LV quarterback props: Will Brady or Mahomes have bigger day?

Among the many storylines in a compelling Super Bowl LV matchup between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers is the battle between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, who comprise arguably the greatest quarterback matchup in the history of the Big Game.

Which one will have a bigger day on Sunday? Here are five of our favorite matchup props from theScore Bet and where we lean on each of them.

More gross passing yards

Mahomes (316) and Brady (289.6) finished first and third in regular-season passing yards per game, respectively, and while Brady is the current playoff leader in passing yards (860), Mahomes has thrown for 3.3 more yards per contest this postseason.

Should there be such a large gap between these two passers? When they met in Week 12, Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards to Brady's more modest 345-yard output. Since then, Brady has averaged almost 10 yards per game more than Mahomes, who also faces a tougher matchup against Tampa Bay's fifth-ranked pass defense, per DVOA.

The "gross yards" aspect of this prop also favors Brady, who benefits from a healthier offensive line and faces a much weaker pass rush. With a 33.5-yard cushion, the GOAT should have the edge in this one.

Pick: Brady +33.5 (-110)

More touchdown passes

This is another stat in which these two quarterbacks were near the top of the leaderboard and nearly identical to each other. Brady threw 40 touchdowns in the regular season with seven more in the playoffs, while Mahomes tossed 38 in 15 games with four through two postseason contests.

Still, it's hard not to side with Brady in this one. The Buccaneers quarterback has thrown multiple scores in each of his last 10 games and faces a Chiefs secondary that has allowed at least two passing touchdowns in eight of its last 10 games.

Compare that to Mahomes, who has 12 touchdowns in his last six games and has to contend with a tougher Tampa Bay pass defense. Even at a shorter price, Brady catching a half-touchdown makes this an easy play.

Pick: Brady +0.5 (-140)

First passing touchdown

If we like Brady to throw for more touchdowns, surely we like him to throw the first one, right? Yes, but not for that reason alone. Brady has struck early and often this year, throwing 11 first-quarter touchdowns - including five within the first five minutes of the game - and 17 in the second quarter.

Conversely, Mahomes has seven in the first quarter and 15 in the second, and he's thrown just one score within the first eight minutes of a game this season. This could also come down to something as random as which team gets the opening kickoff, which makes us like the plus-money side even more.

Pick: Brady (+105)

First interception

Here's where the outlook doesn't look so rosy for Brady. The 43-year-old threw 12 interceptions in the regular season, tied for his most since 2009 and two short of his career high. He's kept his powder dry over the back half of the year, but a three-interception day in the NFC title game served as a reminder of just how turnover-prone he can be.

Outside of his own trio of picks against the Dolphins in Week 14, Mahomes threw just three interceptions in his other 16 games and has been turnover-free in the playoffs. Kansas City's defense also had more interceptions in the regular season than Tampa Bay's, which makes an already attractive case to bet Brady even more appealing.

Pick: Brady (-135)

Longest completion

At a glance, this is the easiest bet on the board. It's a bit closer when you dive into the numbers, but Mahomes is clearly the play on a prop seemingly built for him.

Surprisingly, Brady had more 40-plus yard completions (12) in the regular season than Mahomes (8), and his 52-yard bomb to Chris Godwin a week ago was a reminder of what he can do when he has the time. Still, it's no comparison to Mahomes, who has 16 passes of 50 yards or more over the last three seasons.

He doesn't even have to do all the work. In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes fired a short pass over the middle to Tyreek Hill, who turned it into a 71-yard gain. Those two connected for a 44-yard strike in last year's Super Bowl and could be due for another in this one.

Pick: Mahomes -3.5 (-120)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.