Super Bowl odds, value bets: Chiefs, Bills enter postseason as favorites
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The NFL playoff field is set, and the Kansas City Chiefs (+150) are predictably the Super Bowl favorites, as they have been the entire season. But the rest of the oddsboard may come as a surprise to some.
We've been highlighting the Buffalo Bills (+450) as legitimate title contenders since the summer, and they enter the postseason with the second-shortest odds after blasting the Miami Dolphins by 30 points in Week 17 - their biggest win of the season and third straight by at least 29 points. That victory helped secure the AFC's No. 2 seed for Buffalo, which will avoid Kansas City until at least the conference championship game.
On the other side, the Green Bay Packers (+500) have the shortest odds in the NFC after clinching the No. 1 seed on Sunday. They're the top-ranked team, according to PFF, and tied with the Bills for the longest winning streak in the NFL (six). Still, the New Orleans Saints (+700) are the best team by DVOA and priced shortly behind those other clubs, in part thanks to a favorable wild-card matchup with the Chicago Bears.
Here are the updated Super Bowl odds and three potential value plays outside of the four favorites:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +150 |
| Buffalo Bills | +450 |
| Green Bay Packers | +500 |
| New Orleans Saints | +700 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1300 |
| Tennessee Titans | +1800 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +4500 |
| Washington Football Team | +6000 |
| Chicago Bears | +7500 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000)
There was a time when the Buccaneers looked like the best team in the NFL, fulfilling the expectations many set for them entering the year. A blowout loss to the Saints flipped that perception quickly, but it's hard not to feel like Tampa Bay is the most balanced team in the league.
The Buccaneers are the only team ranked in the top two in DVOA, PFF, and net yards per play. They're also the only one with a top-six ranking on offense and defense by DVOA and PFF, sitting third in points scored and eighth in points allowed.
Tampa Bay gets an opponent with a losing record in the first round, and it would likely face the Packers - a team the Buccaneers beat by 28 points earlier this year - in the divisional round. This price isn't a bargain, but it's still worth it for one of the best teams in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens (+1300)
The Ravens entered the year with some of the shortest Super Bowl odds, and they now own the NFL's best point differential (+165). Yet they're somehow priced as a secondary contender ahead of the postseason.
Baltimore has scored at least 34 points in four of its last five games and held its opponents to 17 points or less in each of those four contests. Its five-game win streak coincides with Lamar Jackson's return from the COVID-19 list, and he's helped the Ravens' rush offense average 267.4 rushing yards over that stretch.
A first-round matchup with the Titans is sure to scare any Baltimore bettor, especially those who saw their tickets go up in flames a year ago in a similar spot. Still, the Ravens' upside is too high to ignore at this price.
Indianapolis Colts (+3000)
I've been a fervent supporter of the Bills all season, so perhaps it's counterintuitive to suggest their first-round matchup as a potential value. But I'm also been high on the Colts, who have the balance and upside to make noise in the AFC.
Indianapolis' defense has been among the best in the NFL this year and may be one of the few units that can cause problems for the Bills. As can the Colts' rushing offense, which logged an incredible 273 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry on Sunday. The Bills have struggled against the run at times this year, allowing over 200 yards to the Chiefs and Cardinals and 5.0 yards per carry in five of their last 11 games.
We know from recent years that a potent rushing attack is an effective way to beat teams such as the Chiefs and Ravens, who would be the Colts' biggest threats if they can survive this weekend. If they do, this ticket will skyrocket in value.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.