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The Super Bowl is always bittersweet. It's the pinnacle of the NFL season, but it's also the last meaningful football game for the next seven months.
From a betting perspective, everyone knows about the props, but with so many options readily available, the game itself can get lost in the shuffle.
Let's not forget what Sunday is all about. Here's our Super Bowl LIV betting preview.
Odds
Chiefs -1, 54.5
There's been little movement on the spread, with the Kansas City Chiefs largely staying put at the opening number of -1, although a few shops are hanging -1.5. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are being listed between +100 and +110 on the moneyline.
Meanwhile, the total has moved significantly. Without fail, public bettors will always back the over in the Super Bowl, and that's been the case again this year, with the latest number up from a 52.5 open.
Betting breakdown
Ahead of the divisional round, we noted that San Francisco was getting healthy at the right time. Defenders Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt were all set to return from lengthy absences, and they've played key roles during the playoffs. In fact, with all three in the lineup this season, the 49ers have gone 10-0 while allowing just 13.7 points per game and 4.5 yards per play.
No defense is more suffocating than San Francisco's at full strength, but there may not be a player more equipped to solve that defense than Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have posted 838 yards of offense in two playoff games while averaging a remarkable 6.9 yards per play. Mahomes has been the catalyst by averaging 8.7 yards per passing attempt and 7.1 yards per rush with nine total touchdowns.
Attempting to contain Mahomes will be the ultimate test for the 49ers' defense, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest the unit is up to the task. No team in the NFL is better at controlling the line of scrimmage than San Francisco is - on both sides of the ball. The 49ers possess a consistent ability to get after the quarterback and force rushed decisions, while their offense is constructed to sustain long drives and keep the opposing QB off the field.
That ability could spell trouble for Kanas City's run defense - the team's lone Achilles' heel. In the three games that Mahomes lost as a starter this season, the Chiefs allowed an average of 199 rushing yards and gave the opposition more than 37 minutes of possession in two of them. That issue appeared to be rearing its head in the divisional round against the Houston Texans, but the Chiefs were able to stop the bleeding thanks to a pair of massive plays on special teams and a coaching mishap from Bill O'Brien.
Overall, the Chiefs' run D has performed well in these playoffs. The unit's allowed just 3.8 yards per rush to opposing running backs and did an exceptional job of containing Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship Game.
But the defense may struggle to hold up against the 49ers, who've run all over teams this season and only seem to be getting stronger while averaging 5.8 yards per rush in the postseason (excluding quarterback kneels). The 49ers have gone 9-1 this season when they've rushed for at least 125 yards, with the only loss coming by virtue of a last-second field goal in Baltimore.
X-factor
Everyone knows about Mahomes, and about the 49ers' rushing attack and suffocating defense. None of those are variables. The one question that people seem to have is about San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
For me, though, the question isn't whether bettors can trust Garoppolo, but instead whether they should have to. The 49ers are built to win games by running the ball and playing stout defense, and they've done both exceptionally well this season. So, the 49ers can likely win on Sunday without asking their quarterback to throw a lot. But if they do need to deviate from the script, there's plenty of evidence to suggest Garoppolo's up to the task.
San Francisco went 3-1 this season when he attempted 35 or more passes - only losing in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks as a result of a missed field goal - and 6-2 when he threw at least 29 times.
Garoppolo's underwhelming numbers are more a comment on the dominance of the team around him than of his abilities. Don't let a misguided opinion about the 49ers quarterback sway you when deciding how to bet this game.
Best bet
49ers ML (+105)
Mahomes fever has swept the NFL off its feet, and for good reason. The 24-year-old has been the most dominant and dynamic player in the postseason. But while he's essentially matchup-proof, the 49ers will be a massive step up in class after facing the Texans and Titans.
The 49ers may lack a similar game-breaker on offense, but they're the more complete team and their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is impossible to overlook. As much as the landscape of the NFL has changed, games are still won in the trenches.
Running the ball and playing suffocating defense is a winning method that's stood the test of time, and there's no team more capable of doing so than San Francisco. Look for Kyle Shanahan to call a masterful game on offense while the defense does enough to contain Mahomes. In the end, the 49ers will be crowned Super Bowl champions for the first time since the 1994 season.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
