NFL over/under bets: Points will be more prevalent in divisional round
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Points were at a premium during Wild Card Weekend, as all four games stayed under the total for the first time since 2013. In fact, the over is just 8-24 (25%) in wild-card games over the last eight seasons.
While there are usually plenty of unders in the wild-card round, the opposite has been true in the divisional round. Since the 2010 season, the over is 24-12 (67%) during the second weekend of the NFL playoffs.
Should we expect fireworks this weekend? Or are those just meaningless numbers that don't represent a pattern? Let's take a closer look.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 44.5
At first glance, the under looks to be the play here. Both teams adopt a run-first approach offensively and take pride in playing stingy defense. Logical reasoning suggests the Vikings will run the ball early and often to neutralize the 49ers' pass rush, while San Francisco will do the same to ease the load on Jimmy Garoppolo in his first playoff start. These teams ranked second and third in run play percentage this season.
But in this case, with a relatively low total, plenty of running won't necessarily lead to a lock for the under. Both teams run the ball effectively, which will help these offenses stay on the field and force the defenses to put more men in the box. That should open spaces in the secondary for Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins to attack, with both passing offenses well equipped to take shots downfield.
The two secondaries are prone to giving up big plays, too. The 49ers allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 10.3 yards per completion, and seven touchdown tosses over the final four weeks of the season, as well as 29.4 points against per game. The Vikings' secondary, meanwhile, has struggled for much of the campaign while giving up a 66.3 completion percentage (27th), and the team's defense allowed 25.4 points per game against playoff teams in the regular season.
Pick: Over
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 47
This is another game featuring two run-oriented offenses, with the Titans and Ravens deploying the NFL's most effective rushing attacks.
The Titans were third this season while averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and the Ravens led the league at 5.5 yards. Tennessee is average at stopping the run, and the team hasn't faced a rushing attack of Baltimore's caliber. The Ravens' defense was much better against the run while allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season (21st).
There's no doubt running is the way to attack Baltimore, as its defense is incredibly stingy through the air. Derrick Henry will be a handful, but can Ryan Tannehill make enough plays with his arm to prevent the Ravens from stacking the box?
Baltimore's offense should continue to roll, but we might not get enough of a contribution from the Titans to reach this number. The Ravens' defense has held opponents to 17 or fewer points in nine of the club's last 11 games.
Pick: Lean under
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 51
It's hard to envision this Chiefs offense not scoring 30-plus points on Sunday.
Since Patrick Mahomes returned from injury the Chiefs have been averaging 28.4 points per game (31.3 at Arrowhead). Kansas City's offense ranked third this season in points per play and second in yards per play. Houston's defense, meanwhile, finished 30th in yards allowed per play while giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs' offense also placed first in third-down conversion percentage, with the Texans' defense ranking 31st in that regard.
How is Houston going to stop Kansas City then?
Which brings us to the total, and whether the Texans can do enough to reach this number. They're averaging just 14.4 points per game in the playoffs under Bill O'Brien, and Kansas City's defense has drastically improved over the past month while allowing only 10.4 points per contest since the team's Week 12 bye.
Still, Deshaun Watson has elevated his play to an elite level, and the Texans possess enough offensive weapons to not fall too far behind in a track meet. I'm taking the Chiefs to cover, but the Texans should be able to help just enough to get this game over the number, even if some of their scoring comes in garbage time.
Pick: Lean over
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Total: 46.5
The Seahawks remain one of the NFL's most fraudulent teams. The Eagles were so banged up offensively last week that the Washington Huskies could have held them under 10 points, so don't let the 17-9 score fool you.
The Seahawks still field a defense that allowed 5.9 yards per play during the regular season (27th), 23.9 points per game (20th), 4.8 yards per rush (27th), and 7.0 yards per pass attempt (21st). The unit is below average in every important metric, and the Seahawks' only chance to win this game will come from Russell Wilson and the offense keeping pace with Aaron Rodgers. Seattle isn't built to win a defensive battle on the road.
Overall, the Packers' offensive numbers aren't all that impressive, but a deeper look reveals how much more efficient the unit is at home. The Packers ranked 18th this season while averaging 5.4 yards per play, but managed 6.2 at Lambeau Field (fourth), and they shouldn't struggle to pile up both yards and points against an underwhelming Seatle defense.
The good news for the Seahawks is they're built to attack a Green Bay defense that gave up 4.7 yards per carry this season (27th). Wilson's mobility will also help keep the Packers' pass rush at bay during a likely shootout.
The over is 4-0 when the Seahawks have been road underdogs with Wilson in the playoffs, and that trend should continue in this spot.
Pick: Over
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.