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College football Week 11 underdog plays: Ride red-hot Illinois

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Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.

Last week, we called Purdue as an outright winner and Houston as a massive underdog, though Florida got nipped as a 'dog in the final minutes. Looking ahead, here are our best bets for Week 11.

Purdue (+2) at Northwestern

Opening line: Purdue -1.5

Purdue came through last week against an overvalued favorite in Nebraska, and the Boilermakers have a chance to do it again this week against arguably the shakiest favorite of the last two years.

Since the start of 2018, only one team has been favored more than three times without covering the spread in that spot: Northwestern, which is now 0-6 ATS in that spot and failed to cover those six games by an average of 11.4 points. This year, the Wildcats have struggled overall, losing six of nine ATS, including three straight blowout losses.

Purdue actually opened as a short favorite and will likely have no problem shutting down a Northwestern offense that hasn't topped 15 points in its last six games. Purdue coach Jeff Brohm is 5-2 ATS as a road 'dog and should cash yet again on Saturday.

Nevada (+17) at San Diego State

Opening line: San Diego State -17

San Diego State got shut out of the initial College Football Playoff rankings despite a one-loss resume, so maybe the Aztecs are out for blood. But recent history suggests they'll struggle to blow out Nevada on Saturday.

Since the start of last season, SDSU is 3-10-1 ATS as a favorite, the worst mark of any team with more than 10 chalk spots. Under coach Rocky Long, the Aztecs are 10-16-1 ATS when giving 17 or more points, and they've won by at least 17 just once in the last two seasons.

Nevada hasn't gotten off to a raucous start, but this team is still above .500 and can stay within two touchdowns under the lights. Fade the Aztecs as big favorites.

Illinois (+14.5) at Michigan State

Opening line: Michigan State -13

Oddsmakers continue to give Michigan State serious respect despite three straight blowout losses and a 2-6 ATS record on the year. Meanwhile, the Illini have quietly won three straight games in impressive fashion and are riding a 5-1 ATS streak into East Lansing, where the Spartans are 2-10 ATS since the start of 2018.

Illinois stunned the college football world with its upset over Wisconsin and carried that momentum into convincing wins over Purdue and Rutgers. Michigan State fell 38-0 to that same Wisconsin team a week earlier amid a three-game skid and will enter Saturday without leading receiver Darrell Stewart Jr. and starting center Matt Allen.

The Spartans have faced a tougher road of late - there's no questioning that. But attrition is wearing on this group, and giving more than two touchdowns to an Illinois team with momentum is simply too much. Take the points.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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