College football Week 10 underdog plays: Take Florida in pivotal rivalry
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Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, we highlighted Duke as a live underdog in a rivalry and screamed for bettors to fade Nebraska against Indiana. Looking ahead, here are our best bets for Week 10.
Purdue (+3) vs. Nebraska
Opening line: Nebraska -2
We advised against betting Nebraska in last week's article and we're dipping in the well again. Why? Because the Cornhuskers have lost seven of their last eight against the spread - including five as favorites - and bettors just can't seem to quit them.
The Boilermakers haven't fared well straight up, but they've covered three of their last four and kept it close against Iowa on the road. They also blew out a similar Nebraska team in 2018 under coach Jeff Brohm, who's 6-2 ATS at home coming off a home loss.
Coach Scott Frost used to be a strong bet as a favorite, but he's 4-8 ATS in that spot with the Huskers, and oddsmakers continue to install him as one amid a mediocre campaign. Take advantage.
No. 6 Florida (+6.5) vs. No. 8 Georgia
Opening line: Georgia -4
What more does Florida need to do to get some respect around here? The Gators blitzed Auburn in a convincing win two weeks ago, went toe-to-toe with LSU in Death Valley, and seized control late on the road against South Carolina - which, of course, beat Georgia in Athens the week before.
The Bulldogs followed up that miserable display with a grisly offensive showing against Kentucky, and that unit will be tested mightily on Saturday. Wideout Lawrence Cager is questionable after missing a game and a half with a shoulder injury, and quarterback Jake Fromm struggled without him. Even if Cager returns at mostly full strength, Florida's elite secondary should cause problems for Fromm and Co.
Florida's Kyle Trask isn't a Fromm-level talent, but he's been stout for the Gators. He needs to play merely above-average to keep his side in it while getting nearly a touchdown, a line that could rise before kickoff. On a neutral field, expect a close one.
Houston (+22) at UCF
Opening line: UCF -23
You may have missed it, but UCF went from one of college football's safest bets to one of the worst in an instant. Before the Pittsburgh loss in Week 4, the Knights had lost just seven games ATS in their previous 28 dating back to the start of the 2017 season. They're just 1-4 ATS since with two outright losses and don't have much to play for with a New Year's Six bowl bid all but dashed.
This isn't to say Houston is much better, having essentially punted the season after star quarterback D'Eriq King and senior receiver Keith Corbin redshirted four games into the campaign. Still, the Cougs are 2-1 ATS while catching points since losing those two and enter Saturday as a frisky underdog getting more than three touchdowns.
Even during their dominant run, the Knights were mediocre as massive favorites, with a 5-5 ATS record since 2017 when giving three touchdowns or more. This feels like a solid spot to play perception and motivation.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.