College football Week 5 underdog plays: Baylor, Duke eye outright wins
Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, Oklahoma State kept it close in Texas, while Air Force and Northwestern couldn't pull off the upset despite favorable lines. Here are our best bets for Week 5.
Baylor Bears (+3) vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Opening line: Iowa State -2.5
Baylor slaughtered its competition through the first two weeks and beat Rice by eight in Week 3 despite outgaining the Owls by nearly 200 yards. Still, oddsmakers are dealing the Bears as 3-point dogs, a drastic shift from when they opened as field-goal favorites at some shops earlier in the week.
Baylor is on a 10-2 ATS run following a loss against the spread under coach Matt Rhule, whose team is 25th in ESPN's SP+ rankings - just four spots below Iowa State. The Cyclones haven't left home yet this year and have a 51.5% chance of winning this one, per ESPN's FPI rankings.
Baylor's defense has excelled - albeit against light competition - while the Cyclones' attack struggled to get going before last week's rout of Louisiana Monroe. When a shaky offense faces a stout defense on the road, take the home team plus the points, especially in a matchup this close.
Duke Blue Devils (+2.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Opening line: Virginia Tech -2
A 2-1 record doesn't reflect how frustrating this season has been for the Hokies. Five turnovers doomed them in Week 1, while narrow wins over Old Dominion and Furman highlighted an inconsistent offense plagued by a shaky offensive line.
That doesn't bode well against a Duke team tied for 20th nationally in sacks per game. Virginia Tech ranks 17th in sacks, though the Blue Devils' offensive line has been among the nation's elite in protecting senior quarterback Quentin Harris, who ranks 34th in passing efficiency (159.8) through three games.
Neither team has established the run yet, so the Blue Devils' pass-versus-pressure advantage should be the difference. Duke has also covered five of its last six as a road dog, while Virginia Tech is riding a 2-4 ATS run as home chalk. Don't be afraid to bet the moneyline on the road dog if you can't grab +3 by game time.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+27.5) at Michigan Wolverines
Opening line: Michigan -27.5
It's easy enough to pile onto Michigan after the team lost its seventh straight ATS, a streak that began with last year's ATS loss at Rutgers. But a deeper dive into the numbers paints a grim picture for Michigan's chances of covering Saturday.
The Wolverines are on a 2-9 run ATS under Jim Harbaugh when giving 21 points at home, and they've lost four straight ATS when giving at least 27 points - including last year's ATS loss at Rutgers as 37-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights ride a 6-2 ATS run into Ann Arbor while rumors concerning Harbaugh's job security swirl after another dud against Wisconsin.
Michigan will surely win this one outright, but a 27.5-point charge is simply too much for a team that beat Middle Tennessee State and Army by a combined 22 points.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.