College football Week 4 underdog plays: Spartans, Longhorns in trouble
Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, Pittsburgh nearly toppled Penn Stats as a huge 'dog, while UNC and Syracuse were both on the wrong side of late swings in narrow losses against the spread. Here are our best bets for Week 4:
Northwestern (+9.5) vs. Michigan State
Opening line: Michigan State -6.5
Michigan State is a week removed from an ugly loss to Arizona State, a team with a mediocre offense but enough defense to shut down the Spartans. Enter Northwestern, which owns the Big Ten's least-productive offense but has held opponents to a combined three offensive touchdowns this year.
Since 2015, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is 3-9 ATS as a road favorite and 8-14 ATS overall when giving up more than a touchdown, including 1-3 ATS on the road. The Wildcats have won three straight outright as 'dogs against the Spartans, averaging 40.7 points in those games.
Northwestern could win this game outright, but even if Michigan State hangs on, it likely won't have the juice to win by two scores.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5.5) at No. 12 Texas
Opening line: Texas -7
The public is betting Texas hard in this one, which isn't surprising given the allure of Sam Ehlinger as a relatively short home favorite. But sharps are hitting the visiting Cowboys, who opened as seven-point 'dogs and are down to +5.5 as of Thursday.
Tom Herman is delightful as a 'dog but just 1-4-1 ATS as a home favorite against Big-12 teams in his three years at Texas. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, meanwhile, has covered eight of nine as an underdog and six of seven in-conference.
Led by star receiver Tylan Wallace, the Cowboys' aerial attack should have a field day against Texas' shoddy secondary. Though not elite, Oklahoma State's pass defense also ranks in the top 45 in pass efficiency (118.88) and could be enough to tip the scales between two teams more similar than their line suggests.
Air Force (+7.5) at Boise State
Opening line: Boise State -9.5
Word to the wise: Stop pricing Air Force as a big 'dog. Since 2014, the Falcons are 10-2-2 ATS getting at least seven points, with 10 of those games coming on the road.
Air Force attempted fewer than 18 passes in 10 of those 12 games. This team is hell-bent on running the ball, which naturally keeps margins closer by game's end. It's been no different against Boise State, which is 1-5-1 ATS this decade when giving at least a touchdown to Air Force.
The Broncos are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS, though their first two wins came by seven or fewer points before a walloping of Portland State a week ago. Expect Air Force to keep it much closer this week.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.