NFL Week 3 over/under best bets
We're back to highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Last week, we looked at two low-scoring contests that cashed for under bettors, both involving defensive-minded NFC North teams.
Here are our best bets on totals for Week 3.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 46.5
This total opened as low as 44.5 at some books and sits at 46.5 despite health concerns for Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. The team hasn't thrived with him under center through two games, though, as it's ranked in the bottom five on offense, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Panthers' spot as 0-2 road favorites historically favors over bettors. In the last 20 years, Week 3 games with an 0-2 road favorite are 7-2 to the over, with the road team surrendering 27.7 points per game.
Arizona certainly has the weapons to put up points, as Kyler Murray has played well through his first two games. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals' defense has been below average. Sunday's game has the makings of a high-scoring affair between bad teams.
Pick: Over
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 47.5
The Cowboys' offense has been nothing short of spectacular through two games, and Miami's defense has been an abject disaster. This week's trade of Minkah Fitzpatrick for draft picks - what a shock - leaves an already vulnerable secondary without arguably its only above-average player.
While that sounds like the perfect recipe for the over, we need to acknowledge that the Dolphins' offense has been even worse than the defense has been. Miami has scored a combined 10 points through two games and would likely need to reach 10 here to help out Dallas, which could feed Ezekiel Elliott early to minimize risk in a probable blowout.
In the last 30 years, games featuring a 21-point favorite are 3-2 to the under, with the overs including the 2007 Patriots and 2013 Broncos in games with a total above 50. These Cowboys aren't quite at that level, so hit the under here and hope the 'Fins don't allow more than one pick-6.
Pick: Under
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 47
Two weeks of data is hardly enough to write off good offenses as bad - and vice versa - but it can be enough to trick bettors into moving the wrong way on reactive totals.
In the last four years, teams opening the season with two straight unders are 20-6-2 (76.9%) to the over in Week 3, including an impressive 11-1-2 (91.7%) with a total higher than 44. Two games qualify this week: the Buccaneers versus the Giants (48) and the Falcons at the Colts (47).
We'll highlight Atlanta here, which has the firepower offensively but opened the season against two talented defenses. Indy's offense has also impressed under the steady hand of Jacoby Brissett and dynamic back Marlon Mack, who together lead the eighth-best offense and third-best run game through two weeks, according to PFF. The two teams combine for appealing over potential on Sunday.
Pick: Over
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.