NFL Week 2 over/under best bets
Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Last week saw two high-scoring over affairs led by the Chiefs and Ravens, while a late surge from the Cardinals foiled under bettors.
Here are our best bets on totals for Week 2.
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Total: 40.5
The lowest total of the week is also an enticing under play. The Bears scored just three points in their home opener behind a horrid performance from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. It could spell trouble against a familiar face in Denver coach Vic Fangio, who served as the Bears' defensive coordinator from 2015-18.
Teams coming off three-point outings at home are 17-9 to the under in the past four seasons, including 6-1 with a total under 41. The Broncos' offense didn't inspire much confidence either after a 16-point dud against the Raiders on Monday night.
Two middling offenses with high-upside defenses always make a tasty recipe for an under, and this total doesn't reflect just how ugly things could get Sunday.
Pick: Under
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 46.5
We all saw what the new-look Ravens offense can do against an incompetent defense in Week 1. Yes, the Dolphins are terrible, but is the Cardinals' defense that much superior? Arizona graded out as the fifth-worst defense in 2018, per Pro Football Focus, and struggled in coverage in Week 1 behind a battered secondary still missing suspended star Patrick Peterson.
Only six teams this century have been 13-point home favorites after scoring 50 points the week before. The over went 5-1 in those games. In that span, road dogs coming off a tie are 1-6 against the spread but 5-2 to the over, allowing an average of 31.3 points per game.
Lamar Jackson looks like the real deal, and Kyler Murray showed similar promise near the end of Sunday's tie. Even if the Ravens hold the Cardinals to a Dolphins-esque 10 points - which seems unlikely - Baltimore's offense alone could carry this game over the total.
Pick: Over
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Total: 44.5
There was a lot to like about both of these defenses in Week 1, as the Vikings and Packers each received top-five defensive grades from PFF. Meanwhile, Minnesota's offense excelled behind a dominant ground attack, though Green Bay's offense looked pedestrian with a questionable run game and a mediocre showing from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Since Minnesota hired Mike Zimmer in 2014, the under is 7-2-1 when the Vikings are short road dogs (three points or less) and 11-4 when the opponent scored 14 or fewer points in its previous game. A defensive struggle could also coax a more conservative approach from Zimmer, who called on Kirk Cousins for just 10 pass attempts in Week 1.
The Packers are 7-3 to the under in 10 games against Zimmer's Vikings. The signs point to another under Sunday.
Pick: Under
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.