Fantasy: 7 bounce-back candidates to target in 2019 (Updated)
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It's impossible not to let emotions affect your fantasy decisions. If a player let you down last year, you'll likely pass on drafting him this season - but that's not always a wise choice. Here are seven players coming off disappointing campaigns whom we expect to rebound in 2019.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with PPR scoring.
More from this series
- Breakouts to target
- Busts to avoid
- Sleepers to steal
- Risky picks to gamble on
- Bounce-back candidates
- Players who will lead you to a title
Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers
A suspension to start the year derailed Winston's season more than anyone could've anticipated. After Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for over 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns during three straight September games, Winston returned to the lineup and tossed eight interceptions in a three-week span before the coaching staff benched him.
Given a second chance in Week 11, Winston's performance improved dramatically, leading to top-eight fantasy QB numbers over his final seven contests. It also restored hope that Winston may still develop into the franchise quarterback the Bucs thought they were getting with the first overall pick in 2015.
Winston and Fitzpatrick's combined stats from 2018 resulted in the second-most fantasy points among quarterbacks behind only Patrick Mahomes. Normally, replacing the coaching staff behind that kind of offensive production would be worrisome, but Bruce Arians has a resume filled with prolific passing attacks and has long been a fan of Winston.
The 25-year-old signal-caller worked hard to upgrade his conditioning and learn the new system this offseason, drawing praise from both Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich in the process.
Tampa has one of the league's most dangerous sets of playmakers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard leading the way. If Winston can play a full season alongside his talented supporting cast, he could be this year's Mahomes - the late-round quarterback who rises to the top of the fantasy world.
Bounce-back potential: ★★★★★
ADP: 10th round (QB13)
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Freeman is just one year removed from finishing as the RB13 with over 1,100 yards from scrimmage, 36 receptions, and seven touchdowns in 2017. That was despite missing two games due to injuries.
A variety of ailments stifled the 27-year-old's 2018 campaign, sidelining him for nearly the entire season and leaving fantasy owners questioning his ability to withstand the physical punishment an NFL running back faces. That's dropped his 2019 fantasy stock into the third round.
Freeman only missed one outing during his first three years in the league, so it might be premature to write him off as a depreciating asset who can't stay on the field. By all accounts, Freeman is back to full health, with head coach Dan Quinn expressing excitement over having his veteran back in the lineup.
Tevin Coleman's departure in free agency allows Freeman to return as the unquestioned lead back, spelled occasionally by the winner of a camp battle between Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and rookie Qadree Ollison - none of whom pose a significant threat to his touches.
The Falcons invested heavily in the O-line in an effort to continue their offensive success, adding a pair of first-rounders in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. The duo will solidify Atlanta's blocking unit and ensure that Freeman has every opportunity to recapture his fantasy stardom.
In the third or fourth round, any risk associated with Freeman is minimized while his fantasy ceiling as a potential top-10 back remains.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★★★
ADP: 3rd round (RB17)
Tevin Coleman, RB, 49ers
Prior to 2018, Coleman was viewed as an explosive player capable of breaking a game open on any given touch. When Freeman was placed on injured reserve early last season, Coleman was positioned to take over the lead back's duties in his contract year, and expectations hit a high point.
Unfortunately, the Falcons stumbled, as injuries on defense forced them into unfavorable game scripts for the running back. Coleman managed 800 rushing yards, 276 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns, but fantasy owners were left wondering if he'd ever reach his ceiling.
In San Francisco, Coleman is reunited with Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons' offensive coordinator during his breakout 2016 campaign. The former third-round pick put up 941 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in 13 games that season, sharing time with Freeman.
Though some were concerned about a crowded Niners backfield, Jerick McKinnon's recent setback clears things up considerably. Coleman and Matt Breida are the last two men standing in a situation we know will produce big numbers.
Despite a difficult 2018 during which the team lost its starting quarterback to a torn ACL, the 49ers' running backs compiled the fifth-most yards from scrimmage, according to Rotoworld's Rich Hribar.
At worst, Coleman will be part of a two-man committee. The last time we saw him in that role under Shanahan, he finished as a low-end RB2 in fantasy. Don't be scared to draft him in the fifth round and then safeguard your selection by taking Breida several rounds later. Give me a piece of the Shanahan rushing game every season.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: 5th round (RB27)
Allen Robinson, WR, Bears
Matt Nagy took a defibrillator to the Bears' offense and brought them back to life last season. Sadly, that shock to the system didn't return Robinson to the 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown form he displayed with the Jaguars in 2015.
Robinson's first year in Chicago had its moments, including a 10-catch, 143-yard, one-touchdown effort in the Bears' wild-card game loss to the Eagles. But big outings like that were few and far between. Coming off a torn ACL in 2017, he ended last year with 55 receptions, 754 yards, and four scores over 13 appearances.
Despite his modest totals, the 25-year-old was the clear No. 1 option in the Bears' passing game, dominating in both targets and air yards.
"For me, a big difference (this year) is not being injured," Robinson told the Chicago Tribune in May. "Being able to come in and work on stuff that I want to work on.
"This is only the second time in my career that I went into another season with the offensive coordinator that I had the year before. I've been learning new offenses seems like every season. To be back in one that's very familiar is definitely a plus."
Mitchell Trubisky's inconsistent play in 2018 was the biggest issue for the pass-catching corps, a group that featured several new faces. A collective familiarity with the scheme and each other, coupled with Trubisky's natural development as a third-year passer, suggests untapped future upside for everyone in the offense.
Robinson may never get back to being a top-six fantasy wideout, but we should see him deliver low-end WR2 numbers after falling into the WR4 range a year ago.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★★★
ADP: 6th round (WR31)
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
It's impossible to deny that Fitzgerald's time as an impact receiver is almost over, but the arrival of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury could provide us one more useable fantasy campaign from the veteran wideout.
Fitzgerald, who will turn 36 years old at the end of August, posted the lowest yardage total (734) of his 15-year NFL career in 2018. That came after three straight seasons with at least 1,000 yards.
Though age is easy to blame for a down season, almost every Cardinals skill position player saw his stats decline under last year's misguided coaching staff.
As reports about Murray's strong showing in OTAs and training camp have surged, so has Fitzgerald's place in my rankings. Christian Kirk will be the most valuable fantasy receiver in the desert; however, the slower-than-expected assimilation of rookies Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler gives Fitzgerald a chance to remain heavily involved in the new high-volume passing attack.
We won't be seeing Fitz put up top-20 fantasy results, but another go around as a WR3 is very possible.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: 7th round (WR34)
Devin Funchess, WR, Colts
Funchess' playing time last season was drastically reduced once the Panthers decided they weren't re-signing him.
In 2017, the former second-round pick set career highs with 840 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Then, prior to the Panthers' seven-game losing streak that began midway through the 2018 season, Funchess was on pace for 77 catches, 997 yards, and another eight scores.
But as playoff hopes slipped away, Carolina elected to reduce Funchess' playing time in favor of long-term assets like D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. After missing Week 12 with a back injury, Funchess saw just 11 targets the rest of the way.
It's true that Funchess was miscast when the Panthers asked him to be a No. 1 receiver. With the Colts, though, he can thrive as a big-bodied outside threat for Andrew Luck while playing alongside speedsters T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell and overachieving tight end Eric Ebron.
Targets will ultimately cap his ceiling, but Funchess has the potential to crack WR3 status if he can steal some of Ebron's red-zone work, which should be expected.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★☆☆
ADP: 11th round (WR53)
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
Walker only played 39 snaps before suffering a broken ankle in the 2018 season opener, but he caught four passes for 52 yards on seven targets before he went down. It was a glimpse of what could have been had the 35-year-old stayed healthy.
Though he remains without a timetable for recovery, all signs point to Walker being ready for Week 1.
Coming off a serious injury is difficult at any age, but the degree of difficulty heightens for an athlete in his mid-30s, especially with Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firsker waiting to compete for the starting role. The Titans also signed slot man Adam Humphries in free agency and drafted receiver A.J. Brown in the second round, crowding a depth chart that already had top option Corey Davis fighting for targets.
But Walker has been a staple of the Titans' offense since he showed up in 2013, boasting four consecutive 800-yard campaigns.
At a position where fantasy owners struggle to find a set-it-and-forget-it starter, Walker offers exactly that as long as he's on the field. His offseason rehab will need to be monitored, but if reports stay positive, Walker will secure a top-10 spot in my tight end rankings.
Bounce-back Potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: 12th round (TE12)