Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Texans' Watson outproduce Mahomes?
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With training camp in full swing, theScore's Justin Boone is releasing his offensive projections for all 32 teams, including his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player.

Projections are based on the following point values in PPR leagues:

  • Passing Yards: 1 point per 25 yards
  • Passing TDs: 4 points
  • Interceptions: -2 points
  • Rushing Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
  • Rushing TDs: 6 points
  • Receptions: 1 point
  • Receiving Yards: 1 point per 10 yards
  • Receiving TDs: 6 points
  • Fumbles Lost: -2 points
  • Two-point Conversions: 2 points

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
AFC South
JAX | IND | HOU | TEN
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
NFC North
DET | GB | MIN | CHI
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson, QB

Fantasy Points 339.2
Attempts 536
Completions 359
Pass Yards 4295
Pass TDs 28
INTs 12
Carries 106
Rush Yards 614
Rush TDs 4
Fumbles Lost 3
2PT 0

Watson's 23 NFL games form a small sample size, but his 6.3 percent touchdown rate tops every active quarterback bar Patrick Mahomes. If it weren't for Mahomes' unbelievable 2018 campaign, the fantasy community would be gushing over Watson, who's been outstanding through one-and-a-half seasons of action. Watson's dual-threat ability raises his floor and gives him a ceiling as high as any fantasy quarterback, including Mahomes. Though we still project the Chiefs' QB to lead the position in fantasy scoring, Watson isn't far behind and has the best chance of anyone to take the throne.

Quarterback depth: Despite some hype early in his career, AJ McCarron has settled in as an average backup signal-caller. If Watson hits the trainer's table, McCarron wouldn't be able to support all the receiving weapons and would negatively impact the rushing game due to his lack of mobility.

Lamar Miller, RB

Fantasy Points 166.8
Carries 201
Rush Yards 902
Rush TDs 5
Fumbles Lost 1
Targets 37
Receptions 26
Rec. Yards 166
Rec. TDs 1
2PT 0

How is Miller still the starting running back in Houston? It seems like we ask that question every year, and yet he continues to sit atop the depth chart, offering solid but unspectacular stats in real life and fantasy. His tendency to break down late in the season is particularly detrimental for fantasy owners. Facing the second-hardest fantasy schedule for running backs in 2019, this may finally be the year the Texans look elsewhere for help, something they should have done this offseason. Miller is a high-end RB3/flex who will leave you unsatisfied with his production far too often.

Running back depth: The Texans waived D'Onta Foreman and brought in Duke Johnson, who'll have an opportunity to play a significant role in Houston's backfield. If Miller fades in the final months again, it wouldn't be surprising to see Johnson emerge as the team's top fantasy back by the end of the year. Rookie Damarea Crockett is a big-bodied bruiser and, at 225 pounds, might siphon off some of the goal-line work in an effort to keep Miller fresh.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Fantasy Points 310.9
Targets 161
Receptions 105
Rec. Yards 1459
Rec. TDs 10
Carries 0
Rush Yards 0
Rush TDs 0
Fumbles Lost 1
2PT 0

A minor ankle injury kept Hopkins on the sidelines for the first four days of training camp, but he's back on the field and ready for another season as one of fantasy's elite wideouts. Hopkins will have no issues leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. However, his numbers could be affected ever so slightly by the increasing number of reliable pass-catchers in Houston's arsenal. Even so, Hopkins is second only to Davante Adams in our projections.

Will Fuller, WR

Fantasy Points 186.8
Targets 88
Receptions 58
Rec. Yards 868
Rec. TDs 7
Carries 0
Rush Yards 0
Rush TDs 0
Fumbles Lost 0
2PT 0

Fuller's otherworldly production with Watson under center has, unfortunately, been a tease for fantasy managers since the pair have only suited up together 11 times over two seasons. In those contests, Fuller has caught 14 touchdowns. Coming off a torn ACL and dealing with a more involved Keke Coutee, he's unlikely to sustain that record-breaking pace with Watson. The speedster will still flirt with WR3 numbers, including some massively spiked weeks.

Keke Coutee, WR

Fantasy Points 139.7
Targets 86
Receptions 59
Rec. Yards 608
Rec. TDs 3
Carries 3
Rush Yards 19
Rush TDs 0
Fumbles Lost 0
2PT 0

Coutee has also been limited by injuries, playing in just six games as a rookie. He bookended those appearances with an 11-catch, 109-yard performance in his Week 4 debut and an 11-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown outing in the team's playoff loss. Watson has admitted that he needs to find ways to get Coutee the ball, so we can confidently expect a bigger role for him in Year 2. With Hopkins and Fuller healthy, his fantasy output could be sporadic, making him more of a high-upside bench stash.

Receiver depth: With such an impressive top three, it's understandable that the Texans don't have much else behind them. DeAndre Carter has shown flashes, but it would require a couple of injuries for him to crack the fantasy radar.

Jordan Thomas, TE

Fantasy Points 109.2
Targets 55
Receptions 41
Rec. Yards 442
Rec. TDs 4
Carries 0
Rush Yards 0
Rush TDs 0
Fumbles Lost 0
2PT 0

Thomas will be moving up in my next rankings update after his training camp highlights led me to dig deeper into his projection. After the top 20 or so tight ends, it's really a crapshoot where fantasy managers should be looking for supreme upside. Thomas has that as an athletic 280-pounder in an exciting offense.

Tight end depth: One of the reasons Thomas has been going underhyped is the depth Houston has at the position and the perceived lack of clarity on the roster because of it. Jordan Akins and Kahale Warring could both make cases to earn significant snaps and veteran Darren Fells is one of the league's better blocking tight ends. Thomas is rising to the top of this group and you should try to get him before everyone realizes.

2019 Fantasy Projections

AFC East
NE | BUF | NYJ | MIA
AFC North
BAL | CIN | PIT | CLE
AFC South
JAX | IND | HOU | TEN
AFC West
DEN | KC | OAK | LAC
NFC East
DAL | PHI | NYG | WAS
NFC North
DET | GB | MIN | CHI
NFC South
ATL | NO | CAR | TB
NFC West
LAR | SF | SEA | ARI

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Fantasy: 2019 Projections - Will Texans' Watson outproduce Mahomes?
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