How the West will be won: Projecting the AFC's tightest division race
There's a three-way tie atop the AFC West with four weeks to go in the regular season.
The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Oakland Raiders took different paths to 6-6, but after 13 weeks of play, they each have a shot at a division title and the playoff spot that comes with it.
| Team | Record | Streak |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 6-6 | 4L |
| Chargers | 6-6 | 3W |
| Raiders | 6-6 | 2W |
| Broncos | 3-9 | 8L |
Who will win the wild, wild West? It's anybody's guess. But here's a prediction for how each team will finish out the year:
Chiefs
After five weeks of play, the Chiefs owned the league's best record and realistic odds of reaching the Super Bowl. Ah, what a time that was.
There was a time when the Chiefs were good.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 4, 2017
We remember it like it was 7 weeks ago ... Those were the days. pic.twitter.com/jrTRG2Hf4s
Since then, Kansas City has dropped six of its last seven games, including the last four. The last three defeats have come to teams with a combined record of 13-23.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been adamant about keeping Alex Smith as his starting QB, and the veteran rewarded his coach with a four-touchdown performance Sunday. It wasn't good enough to end the slide, however. Neither was handing the playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
So when will the losing end?
Remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent's record |
|---|---|---|
| Week 14 | vs. Raiders | 6-6 |
| Week 15 | vs. Chargers | 6-6 |
| Week 16 | vs. Dolphins | 5-7 |
| Week 17 | at Broncos | 3-9 |
The schedule affords the Chiefs three advantages over their two AFC West competitors:
- The next three games will be played at home.
- They own the most games remaining against division opponents (3).
- They have the weakest remaining strength of schedule.
But if results were based purely on location and records, the Chiefs wouldn't be mired in a four-game losing streak.
Projected final record: 8-8
Expect K.C. to end the bleeding with a win in Week 14 against the Raiders. The Chiefs' passing game came to life Sunday and Smith will welcome a matchup against a porous pass defense. The Raiders won the Week 7 meeting, but that game was played in Oakland and came down to the final play.
The Chiefs will then meet the Chargers in a Saturday spotlight game in Week 15 with the division lead at stake. Los Angeles is healthy and confident, and will be salivating at a chance to declare the AFC West theirs.
To finish up, it's likely Kansas City splits its final two games, outscoring the impotent Dolphins but falling to the Broncos and their fifth-ranked defense.
Chargers
The Chargers are as hot as the Chiefs are cold. They're looking to become only the second team in league history to start a season 0-4 and reach the playoffs.
Of the three teams in the running, the Chargers own the best odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl.
NFL Super Bowl updated
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) December 4, 2017
Patriots 2/1
Steelers 7/2
Vikings 6/1
Eagles 6/1
Saints 12/1
Seahawks 12/1
Rams 14/1
Falcons 20/1
Chargers 25/1
Jaguars 25/1
Panthers 30/1
Chiefs 40/1
Raiders 40/1
Titans 40/1
Packers 40/1
Cowboys 80/1
Ravens 80/1
L.A.'s pairing a top-10 offense with a ball-hawking defense tied for fourth in turnovers created and third overall in turnover differential.
With their upcoming slate of games, the magic should continue for the Chargers.
Remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent's record |
|---|---|---|
| Week 14 | vs. Redskins | 5-7 |
| Week 15 | at Chiefs | 6-6 |
| Week 16 | at Jets | 5-7 |
| Week 17 | vs. Raiders | 6-6 |
Projected final record: 9-7
The Chargers could realistically be 9-6 entering their season finale against the Raiders.
They'll face the turnover-heavy Redskins on Sunday, before facing the sliding Chiefs in a game they'll be favored in. Finally, they can go shot for shot with a Jets team that can score but can't defend.
The Raiders represent a difficult stylistic matchup, as evidenced by L.A.'s one-point victory over Oakland in October. They can match the Bolts in points and own an offensive line capable of thwarting the Chargers' pass-rush.
Even if Oakland can't catch their California rivals in the standings by Week 17, they'll likely be playing for head coach Jack Del Rio's job.
Raiders
As surprising as it is to see the Chargers challenging for a division title, it's just as stunning to see the Raiders doing the same.
Oakland also had a four-game losing streak early in the season, and at one point lost six of eight. Only wins against the disappointing Broncos and Giants have allowed the Raiders to even think postseason.
They own, by far, the toughest final four-week stretch.
Remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent's record |
|---|---|---|
| Week 14 | at Chiefs | 6-6 |
| Week 15 | vs. Cowboys | 6-6 |
| Week 16 | at Eagles | 10-2 |
| Week 17 | at Chargers | 6-6 |
Projected final record: 7-9
The Raiders will have to contend with four playoff-hopeful teams. After meeting the desperate Chiefs, they'll face a Cowboys team bracing for Ezekiel Elliott's return and an Eagles club with its eye on the NFC's top seed.
The mountain is just too steep for a team that has only beaten one opponent that owns a winning record.
Conclusion
Our predictions have the Chargers riding their winning streak to six games and an AFC West division championship. The Chiefs will finish at .500 and have to battle with a number of worthy playoff contenders for a wild-card spot.