3e:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/0ljiaa2y9-itx.js","/_next/static/chunks/1yt446igj3lq7.js","/_next/static/chunks/356hjhwwhmsuf.js","/_next/static/chunks/2r-_tyrcnf7v8.js","/_next/static/chunks/0lpwqoi233qvk.js","/_next/static/chunks/2i18aoqym1npm.js","/_next/static/chunks/1-khaq6h6j2wy.js","/_next/static/chunks/2sfb3o3xvfqdd.js","/_next/static/chunks/3h-vnkfj9r7jx.js","/_next/static/chunks/15xqj1mmjxy46.js","/_next/static/chunks/41u_8ogfbuc3t.js","/_next/static/chunks/0x_ky3o94upvj.js"],"default"] 3a:T1e55,

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Nobody knows anything.

Outside of Caleb Williams going No. 1 to Chicago (-20000 to be the first pick), the common theme for this week's NFL draft is uncertainty.

Three weeks ago, the second overall pick was a near-coin flip. Jayden Daniels then became a strong favorite, only to see the market return to a coin flip, and now Daniels is back up to -500.

However, there are no verified reports that a decision has been made in Washington. No one knows anything for sure.

With that in mind, playing on uncertainty and looking for plus-money prices seems the prudent way to play the draft, along with our gambit that the offensive/defensive player split will be 21-11 in the first round. The idea is that you may not even have to win half your bets to turn a profit.

Draft order

PICK	TEAM
1	Bears
2	Commanders
3	Patriots
4	Cardinals
5	Chargers
6	Giants
7	Titans
8	Falcons
9	Bears
10	Jets
11	Vikings
12	Broncos
13	Raiders
14	Saints
15	Colts

Best bets

First defensive player drafted: Laiatu Latu (+175)

We missed the best odds on Latu going off the board first among defenders, but there's still some value left. He's the favorite to go eighth to the Falcons. With no clear suitor for Dallas Turner, and rumors that Atlanta likes Latu more, we'll bet that the UCLA product is the first defender chosen.

To be a top 10 pick: JC Latham (+400)

Ten players are more likely to go in the top 10 than Latham, meaning just one needs to fall out for this bet to clash. With three teams needing to bolster their offensive line in the top 10, 4-to-1 odds make this worth a shot.

First cornerback drafted: Terrion Arnold (+100)

Two weeks ago, we discussed how Quinyon Mitchell might be a vulnerable favorite to be the first cornerback taken at -200. Sure enough, this market has tightened. It's now a two-horse race with Mitchell and Arnold both lined at 15.5 in their draft positional markets. Where there's smoke, there may be fire, so betting on Arnold's momentum to continue into Thursday night is the play.

Draft position: J.J. McCarthy - Over 5.5 (+105)

It wouldn't be unheard of for a team to trade up to take a quarterback in the top five, but doing so for the presumed fourth-best quarterback is. Mac Jones, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, and Will Levis all fell in their respective drafts as the fourth quarterback selected. The main presumption is that someone trades into the No. 5 slot to take McCarthy. The problem with that is two-fold.

The Vikings are the only team with an obvious need and the draft capital to make a deal, but there's no need to jump in front of the Giants, Titans, Falcons, Bears, and Jets at a high cost. Plus, McCarthy's production and measurables don't match those getting picked this high.

Draft position: Joe Alt - Over 7.5 (+260)

It seems like everyone assumes Alt is going to Tennessee at No. 7. What this bet presupposes is, "What if he doesn't?" There are so many offensive linemen on the board. Tennessee, desperate for a young playmaker, could always just take one of the high-end wide receiver prospects.

Draft position: Brock Bowers - Over 11.5 (+100)

Many have Bowers penciled in for the Jets at No. 10. However, New York needs to keep its 40-year-old quarterback upright this season, and the Jets are playing a dangerous game by relying on the health and effectiveness of a pair of 33-year-old tackles. Bowers could then slip through Minnesota, leaving Denver as the make-or-break team at No. 12. A tight end feels like a luxury the Broncos can't afford, making over 12.5 a bet worth searching out.

With a huge pool of players in a particular position, there might be a guy teams like more than the market's consensus candidate. That makes it much easier for a player like Bowers to slip than for bettors to pinpoint a player to go earlier than expected.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

3b:T1e55,

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Nobody knows anything.

Outside of Caleb Williams going No. 1 to Chicago (-20000 to be the first pick), the common theme for this week's NFL draft is uncertainty.

Three weeks ago, the second overall pick was a near-coin flip. Jayden Daniels then became a strong favorite, only to see the market return to a coin flip, and now Daniels is back up to -500.

However, there are no verified reports that a decision has been made in Washington. No one knows anything for sure.

Draft order

PICK	TEAM
1	Bears
2	Commanders
3	Patriots
4	Cardinals
5	Chargers
6	Giants
7	Titans
8	Falcons
9	Bears
10	Jets
11	Vikings
12	Broncos
13	Raiders
14	Saints
15	Colts

Best bets

First defensive player drafted: Laiatu Latu (+175)

To be a top 10 pick: JC Latham (+400)

First cornerback drafted: Terrion Arnold (+100)

Draft position: J.J. McCarthy - Over 5.5 (+105)

Draft position: Joe Alt - Over 7.5 (+260)

Draft position: Brock Bowers - Over 11.5 (+100)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Caleb Williams seems like a shoo-in to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Of course, that means he'll be the first quarterback drafted.

Part of the allure of the NFL draft is the positional nature of the sport. You can pick 23rd and still get the best available player at a position. In turn, each position group has its corresponding market to bet for the first player to hear his name called.

First wide receiver drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Marvin Harrison Jr.	-600
Malik Nabers	+250
Rome Odunze	+2500

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

This market is similarly prohibitive to where the No. 1 overall pick market sat all season, with Marvin Harrison Jr. priced as 85.7% likely to become the first receiver off the board. It asks the bettor to either be sure that the presumed pick is a certainty - like in the case of Williams - or to come up with an alternative player whose stock may soar at the last minute.

First running back drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Trey Benson	+150
Jonathon Brooks	+250
Jaylen Wright	+400
Blake Corum	+500
MarShawn Lloyd	+500
Braelon Allen	+2500
Audric Estime	+3000
Bucky Irving	+3000

Players listed at 40-1 or longer are not listed

The odds for a tailback to go in the first round aren't high, meaning we likely won't see one picked until the second. Any number of teams could take a flier on a running back that fits their needs (zone-blocking scheme, heavy pass offense, pass-protection responsibilities, etc.). Trey Benson might have the most talent, but he may not be the best fit. So, looking at an underdog here is the move.

First offensive lineman drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Joe Alt	-400
Taliese Fuaga	+350
Olumuyiwa Fashanu	+650
JC Latham	+1000
Troy Fautanu	+2300
Amarius Mims	+4000

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

At -400, the implication is that Notre Dame's Joe Alt is 80% likely to be the first offensive lineman selected. That assessment might be low given his potential at left tackle, but it's best to steer clear from laying four units to win one two weeks out with four other offensive linemen capable of going in the top half of the first round.

First defensive player drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Dallas Turner	-190
Laiatu Latu	+400
Jared Verse	+600
Quinyon Mitchell	+600
Byron Murphy II	+1200
Terrion Arnold	+2500
Chop Robinson	+4500

Players listed at 80-1 or longer are not listed

Like former Alabama teammate Will Anderson last year, Dallas Turner is the favorite to become the first defensive player off the board in 2024. However, the markets for offensive linemen and wide receivers are more certain than here. Mel Kiper has Turner (No. 8) four spots ahead of Quinyon Mitchell (No. 12) in his latest mock draft, but the key is positional scarcity.

Top edge rushers are relatively scarce this year, so teams are incentivized to pounce on the one or two standouts. The Falcons (No. 8) have an obvious need at edge rusher, which also increases Turner's chances of going first among defenders.

First cornerback drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Quinyon Mitchell	-200
Terrion Arnold	+200
Cooper DeJean	+500
Nate Wiggins	+2000
Kool-Aid McKinstry	+5000

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

Mitchell has shorter odds here than Turner has among defensive players. However, four corners, including Mitchell, are slotted in between No. 12 and No. 22 in Kiper's mock draft. Cornerback is rife with viable options, so that cluster may collectively drift down in favor of players manning more scarce positions. At which point, Arnold, DeJean, Wiggins, or even McKinstry could be taken over Mitchell if a team prefers their skill set for its defensive scheme.

As you can see, there are a multitude of ways to think about these markets with two weeks to go until the 2024 NFL Draft.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

3d:T1e74,

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Caleb Williams seems like a shoo-in to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Of course, that means he'll be the first quarterback drafted.

First wide receiver drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Marvin Harrison Jr.	-600
Malik Nabers	+250
Rome Odunze	+2500

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

First running back drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Trey Benson	+150
Jonathon Brooks	+250
Jaylen Wright	+400
Blake Corum	+500
MarShawn Lloyd	+500
Braelon Allen	+2500
Audric Estime	+3000
Bucky Irving	+3000

Players listed at 40-1 or longer are not listed

First offensive lineman drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Joe Alt	-400
Taliese Fuaga	+350
Olumuyiwa Fashanu	+650
JC Latham	+1000
Troy Fautanu	+2300
Amarius Mims	+4000

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

First defensive player drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Dallas Turner	-190
Laiatu Latu	+400
Jared Verse	+600
Quinyon Mitchell	+600
Byron Murphy II	+1200
Terrion Arnold	+2500
Chop Robinson	+4500

Players listed at 80-1 or longer are not listed

First cornerback drafted

PLAYER	ODDS
Quinyon Mitchell	-200
Terrion Arnold	+200
Cooper DeJean	+500
Nate Wiggins	+2000
Kool-Aid McKinstry	+5000

Players listed at 100-1 or longer are not listed

As you can see, there are a multitude of ways to think about these markets with two weeks to go until the 2024 NFL Draft.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Joe Alt

Joe Alt

Chargers kick off Harbaugh era by taking Alt at No. 5

Best bets for the 2024 NFL Draft: Capitalizing on 1st-round uncertainty

NFL draft betting: The many ways to play positional 1st-pick markets