41:I[29208,["/_next/static/chunks/0ljiaa2y9-itx.js","/_next/static/chunks/1yt446igj3lq7.js","/_next/static/chunks/356hjhwwhmsuf.js","/_next/static/chunks/2r-_tyrcnf7v8.js","/_next/static/chunks/0lpwqoi233qvk.js","/_next/static/chunks/2i18aoqym1npm.js","/_next/static/chunks/1-khaq6h6j2wy.js","/_next/static/chunks/2sfb3o3xvfqdd.js","/_next/static/chunks/3h-vnkfj9r7jx.js","/_next/static/chunks/15xqj1mmjxy46.js","/_next/static/chunks/41u_8ogfbuc3t.js","/_next/static/chunks/0x_ky3o94upvj.js"],"default"] 3b:T1f82,

It's the season of lying in the NFL.

Misinformation is the name of the game in the lead-up to the draft, presenting a particularly difficult challenge in an event based entirely on information.

With two weeks to go before the first round, teams are doing whatever they can to create an advantage, using the media to pump up the value of their pick in hopes of inducing a trade that will set them up for years to come. Since some pick trades will happen, it can be difficult to predict where players will be drafted.

Let's take a look at the draft position over/unders for individual players and try to determine where the valuable bets might be.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	O/U ODDS
Aidan Hutchinson	1.5	+225/-280
Travon Walker	3.5	+185/-230
Ikem Ekwonu	3.5	-110/-120
Evan Neal	3.5	-200/+155
Kayvon Thibodeaux	5.5	-130/+100
Charles Cross	7.5	-150/+120
Ahmad Gardner	8.5	+160/-200
Kyle Hamilton	8.5	-150/+120
Jermaine Johnson II	9.5	+110/-140
Derek Stingley Jr.	10.5	-105/-125
Garrett Wilson	10.5	-115/-115
Drake London	10.5	-125/-105
Jordan Davis	13.5	-160/+130
Jameson Williams	16.5	+150/-200
Trevor Penning	16.5	-125/-105
George Karlaftis	16.5	-135/+105
Trent McDuffie	17.5	-105/-125
Chris Olave	17.5	-115/-115
Devin Lloyd	18.5	+100/-130
Treylon Burks	23.5	-120/-110
Andrew Booth Jr.	26.5	-115/-115
Tyler Linderbaum	27.5	-105/-125

Like any bet, the goal is to beat the market before either a price adjustment or a line adjustment. Many of these draft position lines are created with a team in mind - a player may be considered sought-after by a franchise that's drafting at a particular spot.

Best bets

Aidan Hutchinson over 1.5 (+225)

Call it a conspiracy theory, but I'm not sold on the Jaguars taking Hutchinson. With the Detroit Lions picking at No. 2, the Jags might think the Michigan Wolverine is attractive enough to get the Lions to make a modest trade up, or maybe he'll entice another team to deal into the top spot. If that happens, this bet loses, but no other prospect has the same appeal, so the Jaguars have no reason to give us the impression they'll take anyone else.

You may want to fade Hutchinson as first pick overall by trying to hit on who will go No. 1, but there are too many other good candidates for Jacksonville. If the Jags do keep the pick, I've made the case for why they may still select an offensive lineman, but there's fire to go with the smoke that is Travon Walker's move up the board.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson at just -280 this close to the draft is a potential clue - the No. 1 pick is often a much heavier favorite at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux under 5.5 (+100)

As with the previous bet, we'd prefer to make draft bets that have two chances to win.

With two picks in the first seven selections, the Giants should have two primary targets - a pass-rusher and an offensive lineman. Who's available depends in part on what their MetLife Stadium roommates do, as the Jets hold the fourth pick.

This market suggests that the first three picks will be Hutchinson, Walker, and Ekwonu in some order. That would leave the Jets to decide between Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or a star cornerback. If they take Thibodeaux, this bet cashes. If they take either Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley, then the Giants can grab the Oregon pass-rusher - who at one point was suggested as the first overall pick - at No. 5.

With the Panthers expected to draft a quarterback sixth overall, Neal would still be free for the Giants at No. 7. On top of that, if the Lions or Texans go for a cornerback with their first pick, the Giants would be assured that they could get an offensive tackle with their next selection.

Garrett Wilson under 10.5 (-115)

There are two ways this wins: either the Falcons find Marcus Mariota someone to throw to besides Kyle Pitts at No. 8, or the Jets add a playmaker for Zach Wilson at No. 10.

Jordan Davis over 13.5 (-160)

When betting these props, remind yourself what teams desire in the modern NFL. A run-stuffing defensive tackle is something of a luxury that the Ravens would be happy to add to their defense with the 14th pick. However, Davis is unlikely to draw enough attention for anyone to trade in front of Baltimore. There are too many other good prospects at prime positions like pass-rusher, cornerback, offensive line, wide receiver, and quarterback for a team to reach on Davis.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3c:T1f82,

It's the season of lying in the NFL.

Misinformation is the name of the game in the lead-up to the draft, presenting a particularly difficult challenge in an event based entirely on information.

Let's take a look at the draft position over/unders for individual players and try to determine where the valuable bets might be.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	O/U ODDS
Aidan Hutchinson	1.5	+225/-280
Travon Walker	3.5	+185/-230
Ikem Ekwonu	3.5	-110/-120
Evan Neal	3.5	-200/+155
Kayvon Thibodeaux	5.5	-130/+100
Charles Cross	7.5	-150/+120
Ahmad Gardner	8.5	+160/-200
Kyle Hamilton	8.5	-150/+120
Jermaine Johnson II	9.5	+110/-140
Derek Stingley Jr.	10.5	-105/-125
Garrett Wilson	10.5	-115/-115
Drake London	10.5	-125/-105
Jordan Davis	13.5	-160/+130
Jameson Williams	16.5	+150/-200
Trevor Penning	16.5	-125/-105
George Karlaftis	16.5	-135/+105
Trent McDuffie	17.5	-105/-125
Chris Olave	17.5	-115/-115
Devin Lloyd	18.5	+100/-130
Treylon Burks	23.5	-120/-110
Andrew Booth Jr.	26.5	-115/-115
Tyler Linderbaum	27.5	-105/-125

Best bets

Aidan Hutchinson over 1.5 (+225)

Meanwhile, Hutchinson at just -280 this close to the draft is a potential clue - the No. 1 pick is often a much heavier favorite at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux under 5.5 (+100)

As with the previous bet, we'd prefer to make draft bets that have two chances to win.

Garrett Wilson under 10.5 (-115)

There are two ways this wins: either the Falcons find Marcus Mariota someone to throw to besides Kyle Pitts at No. 8, or the Jets add a playmaker for Zach Wilson at No. 10.

Jordan Davis over 13.5 (-160)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Gardner","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://d1si3tbndbzwz9.cloudfront.net/transparent_default_headshot_small.png"},"api_uri":"/ncaaf/players/137908","colours":["FD0026","000000"],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"touchdown","default":false,"display":"Touchdown"},{"key":"sack","default":true,"display":"Sack"},{"key":"interception","default":true,"display":"Interception"},{"key":"fumble","default":true,"display":"Forced Fumble"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"}],"has_transparent_headshots":false}],"display_type":"default"}}] 3d:T72f,

All-American cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner will bypass his senior season at Cincinnati and enter the 2022 NFL Draft, he told Yahoo Sports' Pete Thamel.

"My work at Cincinnati is done," Gardner said. "I came in and did everything I was supposed to do. I listened to everything the coaches were telling me to do to get in a better position to take care of my family."

Gardner co-anchored the Bearcats' heralded secondary alongside senior cornerback Coby Bryant. The 21-year-old could become the first Cincinnati player to go in the opening round of the NFL draft since 1971 when the Detroit Lions selected defensive lineman Bob Bell.

"I really think he's going to be a better pro," Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said. "Even where he went from last year to this year, in his body and his ability to be a pro, take care of himself, work the game a little more, and change his body. I think he's going to grow more. A (coach) who is going to play more coverages is going to play to his strength. He's a really smart football player."

Gardner didn't surrender a touchdown at Cincinnati and finishes his college career with nine interceptions - three each year. A consensus All-American in 2021, he helped the Bearcats reach the College Football Playoff, where they fell to Alabama in the semifinals.

3e:T72f,

All-American cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner will bypass his senior season at Cincinnati and enter the 2022 NFL Draft, he told Yahoo Sports' Pete Thamel.

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Any interest in early bowl games for New Year's Eve has been wiped out due to cancellations and various matchup changes, meaning the runway is cleared for the College Football Playoff.

The first semifinal sees Nick Saban's SEC winners and defending national title champions, Alabama, take on a Cincinnati team making history as the first Group of Five program to appear in the CFP.

Cincinnati vs. Alabama (-13.5, 57.5)

Line movement

The Crimson Tide opened as 14-point favorites, though early support for the Bearcats took it off the key number. The total has fallen from 59 to 57.5.

Cincinnati's offense vs. Alabama's defense

The Bearcats' best chance to win rests on the legs of Jerome Ford and Desmond Ridder. Ford, Cincinnati's star running back, had 1,238 rush yards and 19 touchdowns, while Ridder chipped in with 361 rushing yards of his own as a passer. Given the Bearcats' relatively soft schedule, they rarely needed Ridder to contribute on the ground as much as he could have. But can Ridder use his legs against Alabama?

Unsurprisingly, Alabama's run defense was outstanding this year, giving up just 2.51 yards per carry (second-best in the country). While that presents a challenge for Ford, the Crimson Tide allowed 76 yards on the ground to passer Emory Jones when Florida almost shocked Alabama early in the season.

Guess what? Saban saw that and immediately fixed it. Here are the following rushing outputs from capable quarterbacks on the Tide's schedule:

OPPONENT	QB	CARRIES-YARDS
Ole Miss	Matt Corral	10-3
Tennessee	Hendon Hooker	13-10
Arkansas	K.J. Jefferson	13-22
Georgia	Stetson Bennett	7-11

Meanwhile, in the Bearcats' two toughest games of the season, against Notre Dame (10 carries, 26 yards) and Houston (seven carries, 19 yards), Ridder was contained on the ground.

Given how unlikely it is that Cincinnati gets an explosive running play, the team will need to use the short passing attack to convert first downs and keep the ball out of the hands of Bryce Young and the Alabama offense.

With eight different players producing over 200 receiving yards, but none over 900, Cincinnati spreads it around in the passing game. The Tide can't focus on eliminating one weapon, but the Bearcats are unlikely to be explosive via the air, either.

Alabama's offense vs. Cincinnati's defense

Since last we saw the Tide, they've gotten healthier at tailback and less so at wide receiver with John Metchie tearing a knee ligament in the SEC Championship. While Alabama is known for having more than enough talent, pass protection has been this team's weakness. Against Georgia, Saban devised a quick passing attack that took advantage of the Bulldogs' defensive weakness - their secondary - while not exposing the Tide's offensive line.

However, the Bearcats' secondary is their greatest defensive strength, featuring NFL cornerback prospects Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant. Whether it's Gardner playing the boundary side or Bryant, Cincinnati can rely on the duo to hold up in man coverage knowing Jameson Williams is Bama's sole reliable threat. Luke Fickell can dial up pressures with an underrated front seven the same way Auburn and LSU did against the Tide in close losses.

Despite its Heisman-winning quarterback, Alabama's advantage still exists in the run game. We'll see Saban deploy the same game plan he used against Ole Miss, where the Tide ran the ball repeatedly and dared their opponent to stop Brian Robinson and the fleet of runners that give him a breather. This could be an old-school Alabama offensive effort.

Special teams

When Alabama has lost (or come close to it) under Saban, something has often gone awry in the third phase. Football Outsiders has the Tide ranked 48th in total special teams, in comparison to the 18th-rated Bearcats. Will Reichard was 16-for-20 on field goals this season, with misses coming against Arkansas, LSU, and Tennessee, all over 40 yards.

Cincinnati's kicking situation has been a major issue this season, with three different kickers getting the chance to step up. Given the house money the Bearcats are playing with just by being in the playoff, I expect Fickell to give his offense four downs to work with and go for it anywhere near midfield.

How to bet the game

It's understandable why the total has come down as neither offense should be explosive in this one, and I think it could be lower by kickoff. The Bearcats will play offense with an academy-style approach - just get to third-/fourth-and-short. Meanwhile, the Tide will wear down Cincinnati slowly by racking up a high number of plays.

I bet the Bearcats on the +14 open, and if we see that number return on gameday, I'd recommend betting it again up to a price of -120. Asking Alabama to win by three scores in what I think will be a tightly played contest is a lot.

Like most playoff games of this type, the Tide will likely have a 10-to-17-point lead in the fourth quarter, and it'll come down to a late score to settle the spread. The under will be more comfortable as I doubt both teams can get to 25-plus points since, stylistically, Cincinnati won't let this be a blowout.

Bet: Cincinnati +14 (at -120 or better), under 57.5, Brian Robinson rushing yards over (play up to 110.5)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

40:T1f37,

Any interest in early bowl games for New Year's Eve has been wiped out due to cancellations and various matchup changes, meaning the runway is cleared for the College Football Playoff.

The first semifinal sees Nick Saban's SEC winners and defending national title champions, Alabama, take on a Cincinnati team making history as the first Group of Five program to appear in the CFP.

Cincinnati vs. Alabama (-13.5, 57.5)

Line movement

The Crimson Tide opened as 14-point favorites, though early support for the Bearcats took it off the key number. The total has fallen from 59 to 57.5.

Cincinnati's offense vs. Alabama's defense

Guess what? Saban saw that and immediately fixed it. Here are the following rushing outputs from capable quarterbacks on the Tide's schedule:

OPPONENT	QB	CARRIES-YARDS
Ole Miss	Matt Corral	10-3
Tennessee	Hendon Hooker	13-10
Arkansas	K.J. Jefferson	13-22
Georgia	Stetson Bennett	7-11

Meanwhile, in the Bearcats' two toughest games of the season, against Notre Dame (10 carries, 26 yards) and Houston (seven carries, 19 yards), Ridder was contained on the ground.

Alabama's offense vs. Cincinnati's defense

Special teams

How to bet the game

Bet: Cincinnati +14 (at -120 or better), under 57.5, Brian Robinson rushing yards over (play up to 110.5)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Ahmad Gardner

Ahmad Gardner

Jets snag Ahmad Gardner with No. 4 overall selection

2022 NFL Draft betting: Player position over/unders

Cincinnati's Gardner declares for NFL draft after 3 seasons

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