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You can't make it to every holiday party with the same spirit, and you can't bet on every bowl game with the same confidence. Nor should you. However, a bowl confidence pool is a nice way to keep you engaged on a Tuesday afternoon or at the end of a Christmas movie marathon late on a Thursday night.

Let's talk strategy. Nineteen of the 41 games have point spreads at around a field goal or less. With so many pick'em games, that's where we'll try to make our hay since the pool will often be split 50-50 on who will win that game outright. We'll also lean on games late in the bowl schedule. After all, this is an exercise in entertainment, so keeping hope alive is part of the fun. We'll deploy big upsets sparingly, and mostly with low confidence since even if you can catch a big upset for low confidence you're still gaining on the group.

Here's the list from least confident to most confident as we hope for a merry holiday bowl season.

1 point: Miami (OH) over UAB

Why not kick things off with a low-stakes upset pick? UAB is looking forward to the Trent Dilfer era, so maybe the team won't be too into this one. A Miami (Ohio) win might give us a 1-0 lead on the rest of the pool. A loss? Well, we'll get it back later.

2: Tennessee over Clemson

At the moment, I have no idea what to expect from what will be left of these two teams, so let's bury this game here.

3: LSU over Purdue

This game has a double-digit spread, but I'm not totally buying that LSU romps. Of course, not enough to take a swing with Purdue, whose head coach bailed for his alma mater.

4: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

This is the "favorite we're not psyched about, and we'd be OK if it loses" zone.

5: Houston over Louisiana-Lafayette

We never know what we're getting from Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game, but we've been against Louisiana all season.

6: Washington State over Fresno State

Fresno State is popular, having seen the spread swing to the Bulldogs as the favorites. We'll take a low-risk shot on that being the wrong move.

7: Utah State over Memphis

Time for some upset shots. This line has dropped from +10 down to +7, so maybe Utah State is live here.

8: Pittsburgh over UCLA

This would be higher value-wise if we knew whether Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet were playing, but even with them in, Pitt is live to win.

9: Syracuse over Minnesota

Look for Dino Babers to have "New York's team" up for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's reason to believe Minnesota might lose a bowl game under P.J. Fleck for the first time.

10: Rice over Southern Mississippi

We much prefer Southern Mississippi when it's in the role of underdog, so let's see if Rice, in its first bowl game in eight years, can pull off a modest upset of its own.

11: Kentucky over Iowa

The first of a handful of coin-flip games where we have no idea if it will land heads or tails. Will Levis opting out has flipped the line, but Iowa's offense isn't worth backing.

12: North Carolina State over Maryland

Pool players will be attracted to picking Taulia Tagovailoa, so we'll go the other way and rely on North Carolina State's defense to pull off a win.

13: BYU over SMU

BYU started as the favorite, but now it's SMU. We'll back the oddsmakers' initial instinct.

14: Washington over Texas

No Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson means it may be on Quinn Ewers to compete with Washington's offense, including a motivated Michael Penix.

15: Texas Tech over Mississippi

Texas Tech got Mississippi State last year, so why not make it a "Dixie" double?

16: Troy over UTSA

This is as big as I'm willing to go on a first-day game that could go either way, but Troy's defense can do a better job against Frank Harris than anyone in Conference USA did this season.

17: Cincinnati over Louisville

Cincinnati took Louisville's coach, so let's hope it can take the Fenway Bowl as well.

18: Oregon over North Carolina

Oregon is the biggest favorite on the board, so we'll use the Ducks, but there are other places where we want to make our move.

19: Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Georgia Southern is favored by enough to inspire some confidence, but not so much that Kyle Vantrease moving the offense with ease is a lock.

20: UConn over Marshall

The biggest meaningful underdog shot we'll take is trusting Jim Mora Jr. to use this surprising opportunity against UConn as a springboard for a program that likely never dreamed it would be in a bowl game - especially against a vulnerable opponent.

21: Tulane over USC

This closes out the strategic top half of our picks, so why not do so with a fade of USC, knowing that most in the pool will be taking the Trojans despite them being under a field-goal favorite.

22: South Alabama over Western Kentucky

The spread might be getting a little high, but South Alabama has lost twice all season, and to good teams. Western Kentucky doesn't necessarily qualify.

23: Toledo over Liberty

Hugh Freeze is on his way to Auburn, and on his way out, Liberty lost to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, the MAC champion has had some time for dual-threat star quarterback DeQuan Finn to get healthier.

24: Ohio over Wyoming

Christmas will be in the rearview so it's time to get serious with most of our big confidence plays coming. As the bowls get bigger, so do the point totals.

25: Georgia over Ohio State

Only in a confidence pool can the importance of a College Football Playoff semifinal be nestled in between MAC teams just looking to do their conference proud.

26: Bowling Green over New Mexico State

Getting to a bowl game is one thing for New Mexico State, but winning one is another. This is especially true when five of its six wins came against two FCS teams and three of the programs teams in the country (New Mexico, Hawaii, UMass).

27: South Carolina over Notre Dame

Quarterback Drew Pyne and star tight end Michael Mayer are out for Notre Dame. Meanwhile, South Carolina has last year's bowl upset over North Carolina and a pair of stunning wins to end the season to instill belief that the Gamecocks can add the Irish to their trophy case.

28: Missouri over Wake Forest

Wake Forest lost four of five to close a disappointing season, while Missouri's group is all-in for this game. Always give me the motivated side, even though it'll need every bit of it to slow Sam Hartman.

29: Kansas over Arkansas

Kansas is into this game - its first bowl since 2008 - whereas Arkansas is not. The Razorbacks' offense won't burn the Jayhawks like some in the Big 12 did this season.

30: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

We've seen what Oklahoma State's offense looks like without Spencer Sanders, and now he's in the transfer portal.

31: Alabama over Kansas State

Your fellow poolies will probably be taking a shot on Kansas State. Getting Alabama with beneficial "pot odds" would be quite attractive.

32: Oregon State over Florida

We don't have enough space to list all of Florida's opt-outs. Oregon State should be more interested in playing football in Las Vegas, and a big point spread move in favor of the Beavers suggests as much.

33: Florida State over Oklahoma

In what should be a shootout, Oklahoma won't stop Florida State, while the Seminoles' defense should be able to get off the field once or twice.

34: Boise State over North Texas

North Texas is in disarray, but Boise State hasn't done quite enough to warrant top-tier confidence, even as a double-digit favorite.

35: Illinois over Mississippi State

Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach died Monday. Condolences to his family. There's no word at the time of publication about the status of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Any bowl cancellation should shift points accordingly.

36: Air Force over Baylor

Our biggest point risk on an outright underdog. If you can't trust the troops to show up, who can you trust? Baylor's defense has been prone to giving up the big play, and Air Force can lull the Bears into lapses.

37: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee

Put the kids to bed early under threats of cole in their stockings and gently tell your partner that we've got some major confidence points riding on the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. San Diego State might be the only team in the country unaffected by the island climate and vacation vibes.

38: Duke over Central Florida

Central Florida opened as the favorite, which was rectified quickly, so while this game seems like a toss-up, we'll follow the market in backing Duke. It helps that we've liked the Blue Devils numerous times this season and have faded UCF frequently.

39: Michigan over TCU

Enough of your competition will talk themselves into TCU being able to win this game, and much of the rest will respect the Horned Frogs enough to put less confidence in a Michigan pick. Let's steal some points with the Wolverines.

40: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

Why the second-most confidence? A line move from East Carolina -7 up to 10 points, Coastal Carolina's indifference at the end of the season, and the fact that no one will put this game so high on their priority list.

41: Utah over Penn State

Saving our biggest play for last, we'd prefer backing an underdog with a chance to jump up the leaderboard, but hopefully, we're high enough in pool standings that the big points will do enough of the work for us. Penn State's seen some key opt-outs, while Utah has unfinished business in the Rose Bowl.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

3f:T48d9,

Here's the list from least confident to most confident as we hope for a merry holiday bowl season.

1 point: Miami (OH) over UAB

2: Tennessee over Clemson

At the moment, I have no idea what to expect from what will be left of these two teams, so let's bury this game here.

3: LSU over Purdue

This game has a double-digit spread, but I'm not totally buying that LSU romps. Of course, not enough to take a swing with Purdue, whose head coach bailed for his alma mater.

4: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

This is the "favorite we're not psyched about, and we'd be OK if it loses" zone.

5: Houston over Louisiana-Lafayette

We never know what we're getting from Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game, but we've been against Louisiana all season.

6: Washington State over Fresno State

Fresno State is popular, having seen the spread swing to the Bulldogs as the favorites. We'll take a low-risk shot on that being the wrong move.

7: Utah State over Memphis

Time for some upset shots. This line has dropped from +10 down to +7, so maybe Utah State is live here.

8: Pittsburgh over UCLA

This would be higher value-wise if we knew whether Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet were playing, but even with them in, Pitt is live to win.

9: Syracuse over Minnesota

Look for Dino Babers to have "New York's team" up for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's reason to believe Minnesota might lose a bowl game under P.J. Fleck for the first time.

10: Rice over Southern Mississippi

We much prefer Southern Mississippi when it's in the role of underdog, so let's see if Rice, in its first bowl game in eight years, can pull off a modest upset of its own.

11: Kentucky over Iowa

The first of a handful of coin-flip games where we have no idea if it will land heads or tails. Will Levis opting out has flipped the line, but Iowa's offense isn't worth backing.

12: North Carolina State over Maryland

Pool players will be attracted to picking Taulia Tagovailoa, so we'll go the other way and rely on North Carolina State's defense to pull off a win.

13: BYU over SMU

BYU started as the favorite, but now it's SMU. We'll back the oddsmakers' initial instinct.

14: Washington over Texas

No Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson means it may be on Quinn Ewers to compete with Washington's offense, including a motivated Michael Penix.

15: Texas Tech over Mississippi

Texas Tech got Mississippi State last year, so why not make it a "Dixie" double?

16: Troy over UTSA

This is as big as I'm willing to go on a first-day game that could go either way, but Troy's defense can do a better job against Frank Harris than anyone in Conference USA did this season.

17: Cincinnati over Louisville

Cincinnati took Louisville's coach, so let's hope it can take the Fenway Bowl as well.

18: Oregon over North Carolina

Oregon is the biggest favorite on the board, so we'll use the Ducks, but there are other places where we want to make our move.

19: Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Georgia Southern is favored by enough to inspire some confidence, but not so much that Kyle Vantrease moving the offense with ease is a lock.

20: UConn over Marshall

21: Tulane over USC

This closes out the strategic top half of our picks, so why not do so with a fade of USC, knowing that most in the pool will be taking the Trojans despite them being under a field-goal favorite.

22: South Alabama over Western Kentucky

The spread might be getting a little high, but South Alabama has lost twice all season, and to good teams. Western Kentucky doesn't necessarily qualify.

23: Toledo over Liberty

Hugh Freeze is on his way to Auburn, and on his way out, Liberty lost to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, the MAC champion has had some time for dual-threat star quarterback DeQuan Finn to get healthier.

24: Ohio over Wyoming

Christmas will be in the rearview so it's time to get serious with most of our big confidence plays coming. As the bowls get bigger, so do the point totals.

25: Georgia over Ohio State

Only in a confidence pool can the importance of a College Football Playoff semifinal be nestled in between MAC teams just looking to do their conference proud.

26: Bowling Green over New Mexico State

27: South Carolina over Notre Dame

28: Missouri over Wake Forest

29: Kansas over Arkansas

Kansas is into this game - its first bowl since 2008 - whereas Arkansas is not. The Razorbacks' offense won't burn the Jayhawks like some in the Big 12 did this season.

30: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

We've seen what Oklahoma State's offense looks like without Spencer Sanders, and now he's in the transfer portal.

31: Alabama over Kansas State

Your fellow poolies will probably be taking a shot on Kansas State. Getting Alabama with beneficial "pot odds" would be quite attractive.

32: Oregon State over Florida

33: Florida State over Oklahoma

In what should be a shootout, Oklahoma won't stop Florida State, while the Seminoles' defense should be able to get off the field once or twice.

34: Boise State over North Texas

North Texas is in disarray, but Boise State hasn't done quite enough to warrant top-tier confidence, even as a double-digit favorite.

35: Illinois over Mississippi State

36: Air Force over Baylor

37: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee

38: Duke over Central Florida

39: Michigan over TCU

40: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

41: Utah over Penn State

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Harris","type":"PlayerTag","images":{"small":"https://assets-sports.thescore.com/football/player/120618/transparent_small_headshot.png"},"api_uri":"/ncaaf/players/120618","colours":["002A5C","FFFFFF"],"subscribable_alerts":[{"key":"touchdown","default":true,"display":"Touchdown"},{"key":"interception","default":false,"display":"Interception"},{"key":"fumble","default":false,"display":"Fumble"},{"key":"40_yard_pass","default":false,"display":"40 Yard Pass"},{"key":"stats_accomplishment","default":false,"display":"Game Milestones"},{"key":"final_player_stats","default":false,"display":"Final Player Stats"},{"key":"player_news","default":true,"display":"Breaking News"}],"has_transparent_headshots":true}],"display_type":"default"}}] 40:T2883,

College football is freakin' awesome.

The Tennessee goalposts are heading to the bar

pic.twitter.com/gieWBzkRwt
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 16, 2022

Where else can you find a group of people carrying goalposts out of a stadium, down the street, and into a river in celebration of last week's 7-0 sweep in our seven underdog value bets against the spread? At least, that's how I remember last Saturday.

For all the excitement, it's worth the reminder that we should save the parlays for bettors who are OK with donating to the sportsbook. Our 52-36-1 (59.1%) overall season-long record has accumulated +12.4 units, so while a seven-game parlay can pay 90-1, it's also a good way to slowly lose money when the goal should be to gradually grow our bankrolls.

Kansas @ Baylor (-10, 58)

Everyone has soured on Kansas, but who is Baylor to be laying double digits here? Having to transition to Jason Bean at quarterback, the Jayhawks watched as he threw four touchdowns in relief of Jalon Daniels against TCU, and Kansas had over 400 yards against Oklahoma.

This line might be due to the 700 yards Kansas allowed to Oklahoma last week, but the Sooners were out for blood after getting crushed by Texas and had Dillon Gabriel back in action. Baylor's offense isn't that level of explosive, and the defense is in the middle of the pack in DVOA and points per game.

Pick: Kansas +10

Duke @ Miami (-9, 58)

With a dominant box score performance at Virginia Tech, Miami should have covered last week, but they didn't. The Hurricanes can't be trusted to close out a win by margin or even show up week-to-week. Meanwhile, Duke got scooped late by its rivals, and the Blue Devils have done nothing but play fight-to-the-finish games, no matter the opponent or situation. If they can survive Drake Maye's onslaught to nearly beat North Carolina, they can hang with Tyler Van Dyke.

Pick: Duke +9

Northwestern @ Maryland (-14, 51)

Northwestern walked into a buzzsaw before its bye, getting smoked by Wisconsin the week the Badgers fired their head coach. That's the only game all year where the Wildcats have been noncompetitive.

They go to Maryland as big underdogs, unsure if they'll be facing Taulia Tagovailoa, who was carted off last week while Maryland struggled to pull away from Indiana. Billy Edwards showed some guile in relief, using his legs to make enough plays to avoid the upset, but if he's the starter Saturday, covering two touchdowns is a lot to ask.

Even if Tagovailoa gets the green light, the Wildcats have enough defense to slow the Terrapins down, and the bye week should mean that they have a few extra offensive plays to get someone open for easy connections from Ryan Hilinski.

Pick: Northwestern +14

West Virginia @ Texas Tech (-6, 65)

We've discussed how Texas Tech should have covered as a big underdog in games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Matching or outgaining those teams in total yardage means Red Raiders bettors deserved better. However, Texas Tech hasn't beaten an FBS team in regulation this season, and it's now supposed to do so against a functional West Virginia team? I'll take the points with the Mountaineers while recognizing the risk that they come out flat after a big prime-time win.

Pick: West Virginia +6

North Texas @ UTSA (-10, 71.5)

It's a little too early to have Group of 5 matchups in our weekly big games betting outlook, but I'm happy to take the points in this Conference USA battle of 3-0 teams.

Frank Harris is no fun to go up against, but unlike in past years, he doesn't have the run game to help him out. Meanwhile, North Texas has its own veteran quarterback in Austin Aune, but he's got a stable of tailbacks who are collectively averaging around six yards per carry to attack UTSA's run defense, which gives up 169 yards per game.

Pick: North Texas +10

Arizona State @ Stanford (-3, 53.5)

Stanford knocked off Notre Dame in South Bend, but it wasn't due to the offense. The defense recovered two fumbles and Tanner McKee did just enough for a 16-14 win. However, Arizona State has the team speed to overwhelm the Cardinal.

Beating Washington showed that Herm Edwards brought enough talent into Tempe and ultimately had to go for other reasons. Even though the victory came with a quarterback controversy, it's possible the Sun Devils have gathered themselves and will finish the season strong. Getting points from a winless team in the Pac-12 is too inviting to pass up.

Pick: Arizona State +3 (-115)

Arkansas State @ Louisiana (-7, 51.5)

Speaking of the Fighting Irish, they lost to Marshall earlier in the season. That made the market think the Thundering Herd were good, but they haven't won an FBS game since. So I'm not too excited about Louisiana's win over Marshall last week. The Ragin' Cajuns also lost to Louisiana-Monroe, who Arkansas State beat comfortably.

The Red Wolves should have won at Southern Miss last week, but they don't need to win here to cash a ticket. Now that we're getting a full touchdown, we'll take the 'dog in a game between similarly mediocre Sun Belt teams.

Pick: Arkansas State +7 (-115)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

41:T2883,

College football is freakin' awesome.

The Tennessee goalposts are heading to the bar

pic.twitter.com/gieWBzkRwt
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 16, 2022

Kansas @ Baylor (-10, 58)

Pick: Kansas +10

Duke @ Miami (-9, 58)

Pick: Duke +9

Northwestern @ Maryland (-14, 51)

Northwestern walked into a buzzsaw before its bye, getting smoked by Wisconsin the week the Badgers fired their head coach. That's the only game all year where the Wildcats have been noncompetitive.

Pick: Northwestern +14

West Virginia @ Texas Tech (-6, 65)

Pick: West Virginia +6

North Texas @ UTSA (-10, 71.5)

It's a little too early to have Group of 5 matchups in our weekly big games betting outlook, but I'm happy to take the points in this Conference USA battle of 3-0 teams.

Pick: North Texas +10

Arizona State @ Stanford (-3, 53.5)

Pick: Arizona State +3 (-115)

Arkansas State @ Louisiana (-7, 51.5)

Pick: Arkansas State +7 (-115)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Week 2 saw our second 4-3 effort with the weekly edition of the seven most valuable underdogs, but it was trumped by our early plays in the week's big games. No complaints, though, as our season-long record sits at 17-10-1 overall. On Tuesday, we already touched on the scariest of underdogs - Nebraska - only to see the team's spread shrink, which leaves more room for mayhem Saturday.

South Alabama @ UCLA (-15.5, 60.5)

South Alabama's wins over Nicholls State and Central Michigan weren't anything to write home about, but were UCLA's victories over Bowling Green and Alabama State?

Toledo transfer Carter Bradley, as well as his receiving duo of Jalen Wayne and Caullin Lacy, can test the Bruins' secondary in a way their previous two opponents couldn't. Ideally, we'd like to see more from the Jaguars' defense before saying they'll slow down Dorian Thompson-Robinson. But since we're getting over two touchdowns, we'll favor South Alabama before the market does.

Pick: South Alabama (+15.5)

Old Dominion @ Virginia (-9, 53)

We're back on Old Dominion after the Monarchs struggled to get up for East Carolina following their upset of Virginia Tech. ECU may be better than the Hokies anyway, so we'll let ODU off the hook. Meanwhile, Virginia disappointed at Illinois by not being able to do anything with the Illini's repeated turnovers.

The Monarchs hang their hat on defense, so I expect them to be better on that side of the ball, especially if Virginia's Brennan Armstrong-led offense appears as lifeless as it did in Champaign. Even though this line has come down through +10, anything above a touchdown is still good.

Pick: Old Dominion +9

Kansas @ Houston (-9.5, 56.5)

Houston dodged a bullet with UTSA in triple overtime in Week 1 but couldn't do the same in overtime with Texas Tech last week. Now the Cougars get a 2-0 Kansas team. (Yes, you read that correctly, the Jayhawks already have two wins!)

Last week, we were on Kansas, which won outright as a two-touchdown road underdog at West Virginia. There's nothing about this matchup that would suggest a blowout, so we're back on the Jayhawks since Jalon Daniels might be the best player Houston has seen this season.

Pick: Kansas +9.5

Toledo @ No. 3 Ohio State (-32.5, 61.5)

It's never a good time to go against any of college football's top three teams. And like many programs above, Toledo hasn't played anyone yet. However, that doesn't mean the Rockets are overrated. This line is as high as it is because we haven't seen the leap yet from DeQuan Finn, but the dual-threat quarterback can annoy Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have banked a win over Notre Dame and open their Big Ten schedule next week with Wisconsin. They shouldn't be overly concerned with the fourth quarter of this one.

Pick: Toledo +32.5

No. 23 Pittsburgh @ Western Michigan (+10, 47.5)

We're not just backing Western Michigan because the Broncos upset Pittsburgh last season, though it helps.

More relevantly, Pittsburgh has lost on a final-minute pick-6 in the "Backyard Brawl" and in overtime to Tennessee last week. Further, both Kedon Slovis and backup Nick Patti got hurt during the Volunteers game. It's unlikely either quarterback will be 100% for a road game against a capable team - if they're available - and it'll be even worse if Pitt has to dive further down the depth chart.

Pick: Western Michigan +10

UTSA @ No. 21 Texas (-12.5, 60.5)

Speaking of injuries, Texas' duo at the pivot took a beating in a valiant effort against Alabama. Not only have the Longhorns not bounced back well from close defeats in recent history, but they now get a visit from a capable UTSA team and a dangerous veteran quarterback in Frank Harris.

The Roadrunners could be gassed after back-to-back overtime games, but they've had this matchup circled on the schedule since the spring. Texas, meanwhile, has its Big 12 slate starting next Saturday. An outright upset would be very on-brand for both teams.

Pick: UTSA +12.5

Fresno State @ No. 7 USC (+13, 74)

Maybe USC's unsustainable number of created turnovers is actually sustainable, and we'll just drop units fading the Trojans all season. However, we have to rely on the metrics after both Stanford and Rice moved the ball against Lincoln Riley's inherited defense.

Riley's built-on-the-fly offense does look as hot as the midday sun in the Coliseum, but this game has a 74-point total. That suggests Jeff Tedford's team will get theirs, too. Given how good Jake Haener is, it's entirely possible Fresno can churn up yardage without giving the ball away like USC's previous opponents.

Pick: Fresno +13

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

43:T2767,

South Alabama @ UCLA (-15.5, 60.5)

South Alabama's wins over Nicholls State and Central Michigan weren't anything to write home about, but were UCLA's victories over Bowling Green and Alabama State?

Pick: South Alabama (+15.5)

Old Dominion @ Virginia (-9, 53)

Pick: Old Dominion +9

Kansas @ Houston (-9.5, 56.5)

Pick: Kansas +9.5

Toledo @ No. 3 Ohio State (-32.5, 61.5)

Pick: Toledo +32.5

No. 23 Pittsburgh @ Western Michigan (+10, 47.5)

We're not just backing Western Michigan because the Broncos upset Pittsburgh last season, though it helps.

Pick: Western Michigan +10

UTSA @ No. 21 Texas (-12.5, 60.5)

Pick: UTSA +12.5

Fresno State @ No. 7 USC (+13, 74)

Pick: Fresno +13

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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If we didn't already know to tread lightly in bowl season, Friday's games were a reminder. Despite a season full of data points, many bowl games come down to which team is more interested. While we thought Toledo would care more than Middle Tennessee, the opposite was true, particularly in the fourth quarter. The Blue Raiders opened +9 and closed +10.5, yet won outright.

While our CLV loser got bowl season off to an alarming start, Saturday's 3-2 result put us back where we started, minus the juice.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Wyoming (-3, 59)

Line history

Wyoming opened as a -4.5 favorite, but Kent State has taken enough money to bring that down to -3. The total has gone up from 57 to 59.

On the field

Kent State has been popular with bettors in its last two games, which were both critical for the team's season-long goals. The Golden Flashes earned a dramatic overtime win against Miami (OH) to reach the MAC championship, only to fall to Northern Illinois in Detroit.

These are the highs and lows that Kent State's style generates. Dustin Crum leads a fast-paced offense, but the Golden Flashes don't play much defense (ranked 117th in SP+), and they give away field position on special teams.

Wyoming started the season 4-0, including two wins over bowl-bound MAC teams. Since then, the Cowboys have been inconsistent in their own league, winning just two games, though one came against Mountain West champion Utah State.

Pick: Pass. For pools, use Wyoming -2.5 or better, Kent State +3 or better

Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. San Diego State (-3, 49)

Line history

UTSA moved from -2.5 favorite to underdog, as San Diego State is now favored by 3. The total has come down from 50 to 49.

On the field

Sincere McCormick opted out for UTSA, but if the star running back's absence is the only reason this line has flipped 5.5 points and switched favorites, that's an overreaction.

Frank Harris can hand the ball to hungry runners who can shine in a high-octane Roadrunners ground game. He might also do damage through the air, even though San Diego State's defense is 12th in the SP+ ratings.

The Aztecs' best player is their punter, so they would've been interesting underdogs with an edge in the game's less exciting elements. Even though they're now favorites, they have a decisive disadvantage at quarterback. I'll take the points between two teams I have evenly rated.

Pick: UTSA +2.5

Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs. Army (-4, 57)

Line history

Army spent just enough time on opening line Sunday at -3 to be a suitable pick. The line has since risen above football's key number despite the Black Knights' loss to archrival Navy. The total has come down from 60 to 57.

On the field

Missouri's run defense is as bad as it gets for a Power 5 team and is unbecoming of an SEC squad. Bets on Army are based on the premise that it'll be able to run on the Tigers. We have numerous historical examples of academies being more interested in mid-tier bowl games, which can result in a blowout if the opponent doesn't feel like defending the triple option for 60 minutes.

Army's defense has issues too. Don't forget: This team gave up 70 points to Wake Forest. However, Missouri doesn't have a quarterback nearly as good as Sam Hartman - in fact, the Tigers are having an open competition given incumbent Connor Bazelak's struggles.

I'm sticking with my Army -3 bet from the open, but the more I look at this matchup, the more I think both teams could score via the big play. With the total dropping, it's now an option for a bet.

Pick: Army -4 / Over 57

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

45:T18a4,

While our CLV loser got bowl season off to an alarming start, Saturday's 3-2 result put us back where we started, minus the juice.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Wyoming (-3, 59)

Line history

Wyoming opened as a -4.5 favorite, but Kent State has taken enough money to bring that down to -3. The total has gone up from 57 to 59.

On the field

Pick: Pass. For pools, use Wyoming -2.5 or better, Kent State +3 or better

Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. San Diego State (-3, 49)

Line history

UTSA moved from -2.5 favorite to underdog, as San Diego State is now favored by 3. The total has come down from 50 to 49.

On the field

Sincere McCormick opted out for UTSA, but if the star running back's absence is the only reason this line has flipped 5.5 points and switched favorites, that's an overreaction.

Pick: UTSA +2.5

Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs. Army (-4, 57)

Line history

On the field

I'm sticking with my Army -3 bet from the open, but the more I look at this matchup, the more I think both teams could score via the big play. With the total dropping, it's now an option for a bet.

Pick: Army -4 / Over 57

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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We finished last week's Thanksgiving feast of games strong at 8-7, giving us an 81-63-4 record for the regular season. When you add some of our underdog moneyline wins, we cashed approximately +15 units this season depending on your market entry point.

However, this is conference championship weekend. While it may mean more to the players, coaches, and alumni, it's no different for us. We don't need to make a big bet on any game, but if you're looking to try a side in the Group of 5 title games, here's my take.

C-USA championship:
Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

We've liked both teams this season and were on UTSA in the first matchup, a 52-46 Road Runners win in Bowling Green. However, I like the Hilltoppers to get their revenge.

Western Kentucky had just played three smash-mouth-style games against Army, Indiana, and Michigan State, so a track meet with UTSA was a big ask early in the season. They'll have more success in the trenches on both sides of the ball this time around, and Bailey Zappe won't have the same hobble he came into that game with. WKU has a better chance to deal with UTSA's dynamic duo in Sincere McCormick and Frank Harris, so when WKU puts up 30 second-half points, it'll be to stretch a lead versus making a comeback.

The line move from WKU as home favorites to short underdogs happened almost instantly on Sunday's open. That's the right move.

Pick: WKU -1

MAC championship:
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

The Kent State defense doesn't stop anyone. Their special teams are nothing to write home about either, so Rocky Lombardi's offense should have ample opportunity to keep up with Dustin Crum.

If this game was still lined close to Kent State -1, then I'd lean that way, but knowing that Northern Illinois always finds the advantage in the dark areas, I would take the points with the Huskies.

Pick: Northern Illinois +3

MWC championship:
Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

Utah State is the surprise participant of this whole group, and while we give them credit for that, the Aztecs are capable of shutting them down. You can only play the teams on your Mountain West schedule, but Utah State avoided SDSU, Nevada, and Fresno State this season, which is an incredible stroke of luck.

San Diego State has in-conference wins over Nevada and Boise State, along with an early season win over Utah, so I'm willing to bet SDSU will be on another level over the Aggies.

Pick: SDSU -5.5

Sun Belt championship:
Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

The line for this game is moving in the opposite direction, but I'm more likely to let it climb than to jump on App State. Ragin' Cajuns coach Billy Napier is headed to Florida, but even if his on-field decision-making leaves something to be desired, the team will still be invested in the outcome of this game.

This is my least favorite play on the Group of 5 board, but I'll take my chances with a field goal in my pocket.

Pick: ULL +3

AAC championship:
No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

This is my favorite bet of these five. No one should want Cincinnati to lose this game. I'm not saying they will, I'm just saying their final step toward the College Football Playoff isn't going to be an easy one with Dana Holgorsen's group coming up the hill to Nippert Stadium, presumably with tricks up their sleeve and nothing to lose.

The Cougars are long branded as the high-octane offense, but this season it's been the defense leading the way. Ninth in the country in opponent's rush yards per carry at 3.02, Houston hasn't lost since its first game of the season. While the Bearcats' defense has the better NFL-ready talent, it would be surprising if either team were able to move the ball up and down the field - even with the veteran presence of both Desmond Ridder and Clayton Tune at quarterback.

If the Cougars are going to spoil the Bearcats' party, the offense will have to be better than it has been, even though it has putt up no less than 28 points in every game since that Week 1 loss. However, given the double-digit line in this game, we're not asking them to be explosive on Saturday, just good enough to give Cinci a scare.

Pick: Houston +10.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

47:T19de,

C-USA championship:
Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

We've liked both teams this season and were on UTSA in the first matchup, a 52-46 Road Runners win in Bowling Green. However, I like the Hilltoppers to get their revenge.

The line move from WKU as home favorites to short underdogs happened almost instantly on Sunday's open. That's the right move.

Pick: WKU -1

MAC championship:
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

The Kent State defense doesn't stop anyone. Their special teams are nothing to write home about either, so Rocky Lombardi's offense should have ample opportunity to keep up with Dustin Crum.

If this game was still lined close to Kent State -1, then I'd lean that way, but knowing that Northern Illinois always finds the advantage in the dark areas, I would take the points with the Huskies.

Pick: Northern Illinois +3

MWC championship:
Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

San Diego State has in-conference wins over Nevada and Boise State, along with an early season win over Utah, so I'm willing to bet SDSU will be on another level over the Aggies.

Pick: SDSU -5.5

Sun Belt championship:
Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

This is my least favorite play on the Group of 5 board, but I'll take my chances with a field goal in my pocket.

Pick: ULL +3

AAC championship:
No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

Pick: Houston +10.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Our hero of the season, Jayden de Laura, saved a push in the wee hours of Sunday. While it doesn't forgive Penn State giving up a long touchdown for Michigan's win and cover, or Oklahoma's offensive horror show, at least Week 11's damage was limited to 2-3-1. And we're still profitable at 25-18-2 in our early look ahead to the big games in college football.

No. 7 Michigan State @ No. 4 Ohio State (-19, 66.5)

It seems like every other week we're talking about a top-five matchup where the perennial powerhouse is a three-touchdown favorite over the school that's "not supposed to be there." Last week, Ohio State's offense exploded to crush Purdue.

Michigan State likely won't be able to stop the Buckeyes, either. But this is a classic situation where the Spartans' hope is that their Heisman candidate, Kenneth Walker, can help limit the total possessions. He'll live up to the hype this week, and Michigan State will limit the careless mistakes Purdue made.

Pick: Michigan State +19

No. 25 Arkansas @ No. 2 Alabama (-20.5, 57.5)

Alabama's road to Atlanta is now thoroughly paved, as it'd take two losses for the Crimson Tide to miss out on the SEC title game. They won't lose this one, but they might get a scare.

Arkansas edged LSU in Death Valley last week, and it wasn't pretty. That said, the Razorbacks have the run game and high-level talent to create the explosive offensive plays they'll need to stay attached to the Tide. Defensively, there are enough playmakers for Arkansas to make this game look a lot like Alabama's matchup with LSU a couple of weeks ago, where Bryce Young didn't have much room to work.

Pick: Arkansas +20.5 (wait and look for +21)

Virginia @ No. 21 Pittsburgh (-14.5, 66)

The Coastal Division is up for grabs in Pittsburgh. This line is high, which tells me that star quarterback Brennan Armstrong won't be in the lineup again for Virginia. Without him, one of the nation's top offenses was impotent against Notre Dame last week, so don't bet on this game if he's forced to sit. However, if Armstrong makes a heroic return and this line doesn't get adjusted below +10, the Cavaliers are the play here, no matter how much we expect Kenny Pickett to shred Virginia's defense.

Pick: Cavaliers +14.5 (only if Armstrong plays, play down to +10.5)

UAB @ No. 23 UTSA (-4.5, 53.5)

The buzz is palpable ahead of the battle for Conference USA's western division. OK, maybe that's an exaggeration, but UTSA still lingers as one of three undefeated teams in the country. The Roadrunners believe a New Years' Six bowl game is possible should Cincinnati slip up, so everything is on the line for them in this game.

If UTSA is the giant, UAB is the designated giant killer as the conference's second-best team. I'd back the Blazers at home, or if they were laying points against any other team in the conference. However, I believe in the Frank Harris/Sincere McCormick combination to come up big in their last tough test before the potential conference championship game rematch with Western Kentucky.

Pick: UTSA -4.5

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 24 Utah (-3, 59)

Sometimes the line just tells you what you're supposed to play. That's the case here, as Oregon's chances for the College Football Playoff hang in the balance with a trip to Salt Lake City, a place where Pac-12 hopes go to die.

The Ducks' defense has given up more points than you'd expect from a team that prioritizes that side of the ball, and Cameron Rising will have enough success that this game will come down to whether Utah can stop Oregon's ground game. The fact the Utes are favored tells me the market thinks there's a good chance of that happening, which would force Anthony Brown to make the necessary throws. That's problematic for Oregon and the Pac-12's chances at a playoff spot.

Pick: Utah -3 (wait to try to get -2.5)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

49:T1c90,

No. 7 Michigan State @ No. 4 Ohio State (-19, 66.5)

Pick: Michigan State +19

No. 25 Arkansas @ No. 2 Alabama (-20.5, 57.5)

Alabama's road to Atlanta is now thoroughly paved, as it'd take two losses for the Crimson Tide to miss out on the SEC title game. They won't lose this one, but they might get a scare.

Pick: Arkansas +20.5 (wait and look for +21)

Virginia @ No. 21 Pittsburgh (-14.5, 66)

Pick: Cavaliers +14.5 (only if Armstrong plays, play down to +10.5)

UAB @ No. 23 UTSA (-4.5, 53.5)

Pick: UTSA -4.5

No. 3 Oregon @ No. 24 Utah (-3, 59)

Pick: Utah -3 (wait to try to get -2.5)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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C-USA championship:Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

MAC championship:Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

MWC championship:Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

Sun Belt championship:Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

AAC championship:No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

C-USA championship:Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

MAC championship:Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

MWC championship:Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

Sun Belt championship:Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

AAC championship:No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

C-USA championship:
Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

MAC championship:
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

MWC championship:
Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

Sun Belt championship:
Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

AAC championship:
No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

C-USA championship:
Western Kentucky @ No. 22 UTSA (+1, 71.5)

MAC championship:
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (+3, 73.5)

MWC championship:
Utah State @ No. 21 San Diego State (-5.5, 50.5)

Sun Belt championship:
Appalachian St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette (+3, 53)

AAC championship:
No. 24 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5, 53.5)

Frank Harris

Frank Harris

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