You can't make it to every holiday party with the same spirit, and you can't bet on every bowl game with the same confidence. Nor should you. However, a bowl confidence pool is a nice way to keep you engaged on a Tuesday afternoon or at the end of a Christmas movie marathon late on a Thursday night.
Let's talk strategy. Nineteen of the 41 games have point spreads at around a field goal or less. With so many pick'em games, that's where we'll try to make our hay since the pool will often be split 50-50 on who will win that game outright. We'll also lean on games late in the bowl schedule. After all, this is an exercise in entertainment, so keeping hope alive is part of the fun. We'll deploy big upsets sparingly, and mostly with low confidence since even if you can catch a big upset for low confidence you're still gaining on the group.
Here's the list from least confident to most confident as we hope for a merry holiday bowl season.
1 point: Miami (OH) over UAB
Why not kick things off with a low-stakes upset pick? UAB is looking forward to the Trent Dilfer era, so maybe the team won't be too into this one. A Miami (Ohio) win might give us a 1-0 lead on the rest of the pool. A loss? Well, we'll get it back later.
2: Tennessee over Clemson
At the moment, I have no idea what to expect from what will be left of these two teams, so let's bury this game here.
3: LSU over Purdue
This game has a double-digit spread, but I'm not totally buying that LSU romps. Of course, not enough to take a swing with Purdue, whose head coach bailed for his alma mater.
4: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan
This is the "favorite we're not psyched about, and we'd be OK if it loses" zone.
5: Houston over Louisiana-Lafayette
We never know what we're getting from Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game, but we've been against Louisiana all season.
6: Washington State over Fresno State
Fresno State is popular, having seen the spread swing to the Bulldogs as the favorites. We'll take a low-risk shot on that being the wrong move.
7: Utah State over Memphis
Time for some upset shots. This line has dropped from +10 down to +7, so maybe Utah State is live here.
8: Pittsburgh over UCLA
This would be higher value-wise if we knew whether Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet were playing, but even with them in, Pitt is live to win.
9: Syracuse over Minnesota
Look for Dino Babers to have "New York's team" up for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's reason to believe Minnesota might lose a bowl game under P.J. Fleck for the first time.
10: Rice over Southern Mississippi
We much prefer Southern Mississippi when it's in the role of underdog, so let's see if Rice, in its first bowl game in eight years, can pull off a modest upset of its own.
11: Kentucky over Iowa
The first of a handful of coin-flip games where we have no idea if it will land heads or tails. Will Levis opting out has flipped the line, but Iowa's offense isn't worth backing.
12: North Carolina State over Maryland
Pool players will be attracted to picking Taulia Tagovailoa, so we'll go the other way and rely on North Carolina State's defense to pull off a win.
13: BYU over SMU
BYU started as the favorite, but now it's SMU. We'll back the oddsmakers' initial instinct.
14: Washington over Texas
No Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson means it may be on Quinn Ewers to compete with Washington's offense, including a motivated Michael Penix.
15: Texas Tech over Mississippi
Texas Tech got Mississippi State last year, so why not make it a "Dixie" double?
16: Troy over UTSA
This is as big as I'm willing to go on a first-day game that could go either way, but Troy's defense can do a better job against Frank Harris than anyone in Conference USA did this season.
17: Cincinnati over Louisville
Cincinnati took Louisville's coach, so let's hope it can take the Fenway Bowl as well.
18: Oregon over North Carolina
Oregon is the biggest favorite on the board, so we'll use the Ducks, but there are other places where we want to make our move.
19: Georgia Southern over Buffalo
Georgia Southern is favored by enough to inspire some confidence, but not so much that Kyle Vantrease moving the offense with ease is a lock.
20: UConn over Marshall
The biggest meaningful underdog shot we'll take is trusting Jim Mora Jr. to use this surprising opportunity against UConn as a springboard for a program that likely never dreamed it would be in a bowl game - especially against a vulnerable opponent.
21: Tulane over USC
This closes out the strategic top half of our picks, so why not do so with a fade of USC, knowing that most in the pool will be taking the Trojans despite them being under a field-goal favorite.
22: South Alabama over Western Kentucky
The spread might be getting a little high, but South Alabama has lost twice all season, and to good teams. Western Kentucky doesn't necessarily qualify.
23: Toledo over Liberty
Hugh Freeze is on his way to Auburn, and on his way out, Liberty lost to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, the MAC champion has had some time for dual-threat star quarterback DeQuan Finn to get healthier.
24: Ohio over Wyoming
Christmas will be in the rearview so it's time to get serious with most of our big confidence plays coming. As the bowls get bigger, so do the point totals.
25: Georgia over Ohio State
Only in a confidence pool can the importance of a College Football Playoff semifinal be nestled in between MAC teams just looking to do their conference proud.
26: Bowling Green over New Mexico State
Getting to a bowl game is one thing for New Mexico State, but winning one is another. This is especially true when five of its six wins came against two FCS teams and three of the programs teams in the country (New Mexico, Hawaii, UMass).
27: South Carolina over Notre Dame
Quarterback Drew Pyne and star tight end Michael Mayer are out for Notre Dame. Meanwhile, South Carolina has last year's bowl upset over North Carolina and a pair of stunning wins to end the season to instill belief that the Gamecocks can add the Irish to their trophy case.
28: Missouri over Wake Forest
Wake Forest lost four of five to close a disappointing season, while Missouri's group is all-in for this game. Always give me the motivated side, even though it'll need every bit of it to slow Sam Hartman.
29: Kansas over Arkansas
Kansas is into this game - its first bowl since 2008 - whereas Arkansas is not. The Razorbacks' offense won't burn the Jayhawks like some in the Big 12 did this season.
30: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State
We've seen what Oklahoma State's offense looks like without Spencer Sanders, and now he's in the transfer portal.
31: Alabama over Kansas State
Your fellow poolies will probably be taking a shot on Kansas State. Getting Alabama with beneficial "pot odds" would be quite attractive.
32: Oregon State over Florida
We don't have enough space to list all of Florida's opt-outs. Oregon State should be more interested in playing football in Las Vegas, and a big point spread move in favor of the Beavers suggests as much.
33: Florida State over Oklahoma
In what should be a shootout, Oklahoma won't stop Florida State, while the Seminoles' defense should be able to get off the field once or twice.
34: Boise State over North Texas
North Texas is in disarray, but Boise State hasn't done quite enough to warrant top-tier confidence, even as a double-digit favorite.
35: Illinois over Mississippi State
Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach died Monday. Condolences to his family. There's no word at the time of publication about the status of the ReliaQuest Bowl. Any bowl cancellation should shift points accordingly.
36: Air Force over Baylor
Our biggest point risk on an outright underdog. If you can't trust the troops to show up, who can you trust? Baylor's defense has been prone to giving up the big play, and Air Force can lull the Bears into lapses.
37: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee
Put the kids to bed early under threats of cole in their stockings and gently tell your partner that we've got some major confidence points riding on the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. San Diego State might be the only team in the country unaffected by the island climate and vacation vibes.
38: Duke over Central Florida
Central Florida opened as the favorite, which was rectified quickly, so while this game seems like a toss-up, we'll follow the market in backing Duke. It helps that we've liked the Blue Devils numerous times this season and have faded UCF frequently.
39: Michigan over TCU
Enough of your competition will talk themselves into TCU being able to win this game, and much of the rest will respect the Horned Frogs enough to put less confidence in a Michigan pick. Let's steal some points with the Wolverines.
40: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina
Why the second-most confidence? A line move from East Carolina -7 up to 10 points, Coastal Carolina's indifference at the end of the season, and the fact that no one will put this game so high on their priority list.
41: Utah over Penn State
Saving our biggest play for last, we'd prefer backing an underdog with a chance to jump up the leaderboard, but hopefully, we're high enough in pool standings that the big points will do enough of the work for us. Penn State's seen some key opt-outs, while Utah has unfinished business in the Rose Bowl.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
