CFB Week 7 picks: Can Oregon continue dominance in Big Ten showdown?

How is it already Week 7? It feels like just yesterday we were talking about Texas and Penn State - now both unranked two-loss teams - as the favorites to win the national title. Few teams have separated themselves as locks to make the College Football Playoff, setting up an intriguing final stretch of the season.

We're 9-4 in our last 13 selections, so let's keep it rolling.

👉 Check out all college football Week 7 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 12 p.m. ET

🏈 Pick: Ohio State -14.5

There's Ohio State, then a sizable gap, and then everybody else. The Buckeyes boast exceptional talent on both sides of the ball. They seem immune to a letdown game, having answered the call against Texas, Washington, and lowly Minnesota. Illinois is no slouch, especially when quarterback Luke Altmyer is at home. However, the Fighting Illini's only ranked opponent was Indiana, and they lost 63-10. It won't be that ugly Saturday, but Ohio State should win handily.

Game time: 12 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Alabama -2.5

Don't write Kalen DeBoer's obituary just yet. Since Alabama's opening loss to Florida State, it's looked like a top team in the country and is now coming off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents Georgia and Vanderbilt. Missouri is another tough top-15 road test, but Ty Simpson is playing quarterback better than anyone in the nation. He's led the Crimson Tide to the country's fifth-best passing offense.

Missouri has a sturdy defense, but its strength is stopping the run. The Tigers have allowed the nation's fewest rushing yards per game and rank 10th in passing yards allowed. Alabama should find ways to exploit Missouri through the air. For all of DeBoer's inexcusable losses to inferior opponents, he's 17-3 against ranked teams.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Texas -1.5

Oddsmakers can't quit Texas, which is now 3-2 and a long shot to make the playoff. Texas can't lose another game if it wants a chance to qualify for the postseason, making this year's Red River Rivalry a must-win for the Longhorns. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer isn't officially ruled out for this weekend's game. If he plays, how healthy will he be just weeks after undergoing hand surgery? The Sooners have only played one game without Mateer, who was the Heisman favorite before his injury, but that was against Kent State. As disappointing as Arch Manning and Texas' offense have been, this is a good spot for them to bounce back at home after last week's loss to Florida.

Game time: 3:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Indiana +7.5

Oregon had a bye after its incredible win at Penn State, so this isn't a true potential letdown spot. I'm taking Indiana because the gap between the Hoosiers and the Ducks isn't as wide as the spread indicates, even with the game being played in Eugene.

Indiana is even better than its playoff iteration last year, especially at quarterback. Although Fernando Mendoza threw his first interception of the season in last week's win over Iowa, he's been a reliable passer. The Hoosiers' offense is balanced, using both Mendoza's arm and the nation's fifth-best rushing attack. Indiana averages the fifth-most points per game. While Oregon's offense is also prolific, Indiana's defense has allowed the third-fewest points per game. Indiana will score enough and earn timely stops, keeping the game within a touchdown.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Georgia -3.5

This Georgia defense is comically bad compared to previous units under Kirby Smart. However, it still made strides in a win over Kentucky last week. Yes, it's just Kentucky, but the Bulldogs' one loss came against Alabama - the only school Smart struggles to beat.

Auburn is on a two-game losing streak after facing two opponents ranked in the top six (Oklahoma and Texas A&M). There's no shame in those losses. However, the Tigers' offense struggles to move the ball, ranking outside the top 100 in yards per game. Auburn won't be able to take advantage of Georgia's suspect defense, leading to a sound Bulldogs road win.

👉 Check out all college football Week 7 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Game time: 12 p.m.

🏈 Pick: Michigan State -8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for UCLA after earning its marquee win of the season - also, its first win of any kind - over Penn State as a massive home underdog. Michigan State is a bottom-tier Big Ten team, but UCLA, which lost to Northwestern two weeks ago, is even worse. Michigan State has three nonconference wins and was somewhat competitive against USC and Nebraska.

The Spartans are the more talented group, while the Bruins are traveling east and coming down from the emotional high of the Penn State upset.

Game time: 7:30 p.m.

🏈 Pick: USC -2.5

USC hasn't received enough respect as a top-tier Big Ten program. Its only loss is to Illinois, a top-20 team in the country. USC is coming off a bye and is at home. Meanwhile, Michigan's most impressive win is a close victory over Nebraska - and that's using "impressive" loosely.

Michigan's defensive strength lies in stopping the run, but USC's offense relies heavily on passing. The Trojans average the third-most passing yards per game. While the Wolverines have the seventh-best rushing defense, they don't rank in the top 50 in passing defense. USC should move the ball through the air with ease, and Michigan's run-heavy offense won't keep pace.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more coverage.

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