CFB bowl betting: Analyzing opening lines, early moves of all 41 games

It's frantic. The matchups trickle out Sunday afternoon, get plugged into the spreadsheet, and out pops a point spread. Betting lines then open and are almost immediately on the move.

Is the coach going anywhere? Who's in the transfer portal? Will the pro prospect play or decide not to risk injury before the draft? Are those who participate interested in going all-out for a non-playoff game, or are they here for the vacation?

How does all of this apply to a change in a point spread that would usually be based on power ratings built off a body of work over a three-month season?

Those are the questions. If you're looking for answers, here are the notes I wrote myself after last year's bowl season:

• Players wanted to play
• Don't worry so much about openers or opt-outs unless everyone leaves like Purdue
• Look at early moves because fading those won
• Your two biggest early bets saw the line move the other way and still won easily

Spread projections, openers and moves

With the understanding that patience is a virtue, let's look at every bowl game with what the point spread should have been (based on estimated market ratings), how it opened, where it went (as of noon Monday), and why that's the case.

The opening line makes sense if you used preseason ratings. But the market spent much of the season souring on Georgia Southern, so we'll see where this ends up.

Maybe a late blowout of UL-Monroe gave Louisiana a bump, and a season finale loss for Jacksonville State hurt its rating. Grabbing anything under a field goal is a play on the Gamecocks.

The line toggling around -4 makes sense, especially after Miami (OH) pulled off a MAC title Saturday while Troy overwhelmed Appalachian State.

The reason the Aggies are the favorites is in the name. It's something of a home game for New Mexico State. Another factor? Fresno State, losers of three straight to end the season, will be without head coach Jeff Tedford due to health reasons.

Boise State trucked UNLV, finishing the season a cut above everyone in the Mountain West. UCLA finished its campaign with a home loss to California. No wonder the market likes the Broncos more than the oddsmakers were ready for.

California winning at UCLA and Texas smoking Texas Tech might have tightened this line from projections. But the Red Raiders' superior talent should win out, so grab -3 while you can.

Western Kentucky star quarterback Austin Reed flirted with transferring last year before the bowl game but then threw four touchdowns for the Hilltoppers. Reed potentially pulling the trigger on a move this time around is the only reason for this line to come across a pick'em. Keep an eye out for news before making a bet here.

Marshall's been a tricky rating down the stretch. But I can't get down to -8.5 even when giving the Thundering Herd credit for beating Arkansas State in its last game. Bet UTSA at anything under -10.

There's nothing to argue here, so we'll break down the matchup next week.

Georgia Tech had a penchant for the upset this season and was frisky against Georgia in its finale. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the Yellow Jackets stunned another more talented team, news on player availability is required to convince me that this line shouldn't be higher.

No Mike Elko. No Riley Leonard. Troy's playing close to home. Plus, there's a little value on the Trojans under a touchdown.

Wrong team favored?! Inside a field goal, a spread a little bit off likely won't matter, but we'll see if Northern Illinois has the matchup to be the right side.

This looks correct, but the Air Force's quarterback situation will be telling.

Utah State barely got its postseason ticket. Is that enough to make Georgia State - losers of five straight - the favorite by more than a field goal?

Eastern Michigan's rating can't get any lower, and oddsmakers know it.

Cameron Rising never played this season, Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson are in the portal, and Utah is still -9.5 against Northwestern.

These two teams are headed in opposite directions, so we might not have seen the last move toward San Jose State.

Athan Kaliakmanis entered the portal, but is that much of a loss for Minnesota?

The downgrade from J.T. Daniels to freshman AJ Padgett doesn't seem to warrant a line this high.

Getting crushed in the Mountain West title game didn't do much for UNLV's reputation.

Tulane head coach Willie Fritz is off to Houston. Might Michael Pratt be next to go?

North Carolina without Drake Maye. Think about that for a second.

USC without Caleb Williams.

We'd need to downgrade Texas A&M further than it has been all season to get to this number.

SMU got downgraded before the American Athletic Conference title game due to Preston Stone's injury but outperformed those expectations despite three first-half turnovers from his replacement.

With Tyler Van Dyke in the portal, Miami should be down to a third-string quarterback.

Will Howard's pending transfer has put the ball into freshman Avery Johnson's hands.

Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is heading to Mississippi State, and Dillon Gabriel's in the portal.

Nothing to see here yet.

Jonathan Smith is off to Michigan State, and D.J. Uiagalelei is back in the portal.

Memphis gets a home game against a Power 5 team. We'll see if this line gets closer to our projection.

Kyle McCord somewhat surprisingly entered the transfer portal, but is that worth this line move?

Penn State hammered inferior competition in its final two games, and its rating bounced back up. Will that work against Ole Miss?

Looks good. No notes.

Right or wrong, this spread is why Florida State didn't get a place in the College Football Playoff.

After getting run through by Miami (OH), the market doesn't think Toledo's up for getting barrelled into by Wyoming in a bowl game. Hard to argue.

Questions abound about whether Jayden Daniels will play. However, LSU can be explosive even if he doesn't.

Iowa's defense gets credit for limiting opponents' yardage, but they haven't faced SEC skill this season.

Liberty will be thrilled to be there, but there are questions about whether Oregon will share that feeling.

Michigan had a higher rating than Alabama all season.

What changes do you make to the ratings for Texas and Washington after great performances last weekend?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.