We held our heads above water again in last week's Saturday 7. You can't go broke turning an, albeit small, profit. After four straight winning weeks, let's keep things rolling into November.
No. 1 Ohio State @ Rutgers (+18.5, 42.5)
This is the big one for Rutgers. With road games against Michigan and Penn State on the schedule, this is the Scarlet Knights' chance to get the cream of the Big Ten crop at their place this season.
Though Rutgers lost 31-7 at Michigan on Sept. 23 to push as 24-point underdogs, it did well to keep possessions to a minimum - just seven for the Wolverines. However, Michigan's quality overwhelmed the SUNJ. That won't be the case with Ohio State, which ranks far behind its archrival in standard down success rate (SDSR) and EPA/play on both sides of the ball. This 5.5-point difference doesn't do enough to account for the discrepancy in team quality and Big Ten home-field advantage.
We faded the Buckeyes last week versus Wisconsin when they needed to cover a big number on the road. Rutgers has a comparable defense and a better offense than the Badgers, who stayed inside the number throughout the game.
Pick: Rutgers (+18.5)
Arizona State @ No. 18 Utah (-11, 40.5)
Oregon punched some holes in Utah's invincibility at Rice-Eccles Stadium last week and ended the Utes' hopes of getting to the Pac-12 championship without starting quarterback Cam Rising. Moreover, it showed that Utah's offensive explosion against USC was more about the Trojans' defense.
Arizona State's run of covers finally resulted in a win, convincingly over Washington State. The Sun Devils threw for 10.5 yards per pass attempt and ran for 6.0 yards per carry in the contest. That was in keeping with their offensive turnaround after giving Trenton Bourguet the reins at quarterback four games ago. Over that same timeframe, Utah's defensive SDSR has been worse than Arizona State's.
Pick: Arizona State (+11)
No. 9 Oklahoma @ No. 22 Oklahoma State (+6, 61.5)
Show me a team with two starting quarterbacks, and I'll show you one with no starting quarterbacks. It should come as no surprise that, like Arizona State, Oklahoma State has seen better results after finally picking one of its three signal-callers.
It seemed like an upset when the Cowboys beat Kansas State four weeks ago. But three more convincing wins later, and maybe Oklahoma State is simply good. Whereas Oklahoma won the Red River Rivalry versus Texas, potentially tricking the market into thinking it was something more than an upset.
With the Bedlam Series going by the wayside, expect Mike Gundy to have his team - and Stillwater as a whole - riled up in a fervor to send the Sooners to the SEC with a loss.
Pick: Oklahoma State (+6)
Iowa vs. Northwestern (+5, 30.5)
You're not misreading the game total for this one. Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill has an 8.3 QBR, and Brian Ferentz's offense had 11 rushing yards on 28 carries at home against Minnesota. The Hawkeyes spent the bye week firing Ferentz, but the bad news is he's staying on for the rest of the season.
Northwestern's SDSR metrics are in line with the Golden Gophers, who the Wildcats beat before they landed on current starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan. The signal-caller played his best game last week in an upset over Maryland. Look for the Wildcats to score another against anemic Iowa at Wrigley Field.
Pick: Northwestern (+5)
James Madison @ Georgia State (+5.5, 53.5)
Undefeated James Madison still can't play in the postseason, which would be awkward if it finished the campaign without a loss. However, five of the program's seven FBS wins this season came in one-possession games. Also, the Dukes just gave up over 400 yards to Old Dominion, one of the worst offenses in the country.
If there's any vulnerability in James Madison's otherwise impressive defense, Georgia State can expose it. Featuring dual-threat senior Darren Grainger, the Panthers rank just ahead of Texas in EPA/play.
Why is Georgia State home underdogs? A road loss to Georgia Southern last week gave the Panthers their second Sun Belt defeat, so the impression is that they're not in the same class. However, the top tier of the conference is more than just James Madison.
Pick: Georgia State (+5.5)
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State (-3, 55.5)
I don't think even New Mexico State knows how it lost at Hawaii in Week 4. If the Aggies hadn't blown a 17-3 halftime lead and lost 20-17 on a field goal with no time left, they'd have six straight wins. The betting market also would've taken more notice that Diego Pavia has 11 touchdown passes to just one interception in those six games.
The two home contests in that stretch were easy wins, yet New Mexico State is rated the same as Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have just one FBS win this season, pulling out a victory despite getting outgained at home by 3-6 Louisiana Tech.
Pick: New Mexico State (-3)
No. 19 UCLA @ Arizona (+2.5, 50.5)
Colorado came into the Rose Bowl last Saturday night with their usual must-see TV hullabaloo, which must have been fun for UCLA to dominate the Buffaloes' offensive line. But there are still too many questions about the Bruins' offense. Things like, who's the QB this week?
We know Arizona's quarterback. Freshman Noah Fifita has been awesome since taking over as the starter four games ago, recording 11 touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging 288 yards per game. Make it three upsets in a row for the Wildcats.
Pick: Arizona (+2.5)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
