This is arguably the most interesting game of the divisional round because we didn't get to see it the first time around. If Week 17's contest had been completed, we'd have a better understanding of the legitimacy of one of the most divisive pregame point spreads of the regular season.
The Bills closed -2.5 on the road at kickoff that night, which makes the opening line of Bills -3.5 for this week's game in Buffalo perplexing. Going by market-based power ratings of that Week 17 game - and after flipping home-field advantage - Buffalo should theoretically be favored by at least six points. A Bengals win on that fateful Monday night would've helped disprove those ratings, but now bettors have jumped on the Bills - stabilizing the line at -5.5.
Bengals @ Bills (-5.5, 48.5)
Now that this line is more closely balanced to when the market closed the first time around, bettors are required to ask a single question in handicapping this game on the field: Can the Bengals move the ball with a makeshift offensive line?
The market is fully aware that Cincinnati's re-made offensive line has been suddenly torn down with injuries to household names in La'el Collins (Week 16), Alex Cappa (Week 18), and Jonah Williams (wild-card round). They're replaced by the poorly rated Hakeem Adeniji, Jamal Jackson, Andre Jackson, Max Scharping, and Cordell Volson. That group is so anonymous that you probably didn't notice that the Jacksons aren't even Bengals, but rather a fictional offensive line brother duo from the 2000 film "The Replacements."
Once Williams exited the wild-card round, the Ravens sacked Joe Burrow whenever the Bengals ran plays that required time for receivers to get downfield. That forced Cincy to mostly abandon five-step drop-backs. It survived despite just 234 total yards on offense and thanks to the highest-leverage play of the playoffs: a 98-yard fumble return for a touchdown.
The case for the Bengals to find success on offense is that they're not facing the Ravens this week and that the Bills allowed 24 offensive points to Skylar Thompson. The problem with that argument is that the Dolphins only mustered 3.3 yards per play, so the Bills' defense wasn't as vulnerable as the final score suggested. The healthy Bengals were a top-five team in converting red-zone opportunities to touchdowns this season, but the Bills were second in that category defensively.
Last season, the Bengals made the Super Bowl with a sub-par offensive line. In their last four games, they've only exceeded four yards per play once - thanks to a big first half in New England.
The Ravens went for long, sustained drives that chewed up enough time to limit Cincinnati to just seven drives last week. Josh Allen, however, will continue to stretch opposition defenses. The Bengals allowed 11.2 yards per completion this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL, so they'll surely miss star cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who suffered a season-ending injury at the end of October.
Pick: Bills -5.5 / Bengals team total under 21.5 points
Joe Burrow longest pass completion: Under 36.5 yards (-115)
We faded Burrow last week and won with 60 yards of cushion on his total because Cincinnati couldn't find a connection longer than 19 yards through the air. Burrow's total, at 279.5 yards, is worth a look to the under, but the Bengals' struggles to run block, along with the Bills' ability to score, means the quarterback could crawl over this total on a high volume of short passes.
Buffalo should be prepared for Burrow's best option - the three-step drop. Even if they're not, being forced to nickel-and-dime the Bengals down the field means Burrow will need a complete breakdown in the Bills' tackling to have a long completion.
Devin Singletary under 41.5 rushing yards
There are three hurdles to Singletary going over this total:
- Singletary is losing carries to James Cook (12-10 last week).
- The Bengals' stout run defense when run-stuffing tackle D.J. Reader is in the lineup.
- The Bills will likely go back to last week's game plan of using empty-backfield sets to take advantage of their opponents' secondary depth.
Samaje Perine over 10.5 receiving yards
The Bengals' long-time passing-down running back, Perine is known as a better pass-blocker than Joe Mixon. Last week, as the Bengals suffered another injury to their line, Perine played 31 snaps to Mixon's 26. Perine played 38% or more of the snaps even after Mixon came back from injury in Week 14. With Burrow needing to get the ball out quickly, look for more screen passes to be in the plan - a week after the Bills allowed 14.5 yards per catch to Dolphins' tailbacks, on nine targets.
Bonus bet: Cole Beasley anytime touchdown (+400)
Like it or not, the Bills ran plays both on fourth down and at the goal line for Beasley, and he had the third-most snaps of all Buffalo receivers. At +400 or longer, he's worth a small bet on principle.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
