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CFB Week 13 best bets (Part 2): Value available in Saturday's slate

Mike Mulholland / Getty Images Sport / Getty

They're not necessarily the biggest games of the week, nor are our best bets all underdogs where we're getting a couple more points than we should. But after celebrating a four-day weekend with Part 1 of Thanksgiving weekend's best bets, like the last of the leftovers, we're back for more Saturday. Last week was a struggle as lines continue to get tighter and teams get as unpredictable as ever. Still, a 77-61-3 total record on our plays here means we have 10 more units than we started with this season. That's something to be thankful for.

No. 3 Michigan @ No. 2 Ohio State (-8, 56.5)

OK, maybe one of these is the biggest game of the week.

When you play a schedule as soft as these two have - where you're between 15- and 40-point favorites every week, and your season comes down to this game - you devote time throughout the campaign to your main rival. You watch every play, track every tendency, and plan for everything.

The familiarity that goes beyond just facing each other on this weekend every year lends itself to a close game. Ohio State's offense can be defended within reason, but Michigan won't get to CJ Stroud the way it did in 2021. The Wolverines also won't be able to run it with impunity like they did in the convincing win that propelled them to last year's College Football Playoff. However, these teams are more evenly matched than this spread suggests, and it'll come down to a final drive to decide who goes to the Big Ten title game.

Pick: Michigan +8

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (-8.5, 62.5)

I wish we'd known this before the season, but strangely, West Virginia's best efforts have come every second week. Neal Brown is on the hot seat because the Mountaineers haven't been consistent, but they can play with an Oklahoma State team that's run out of things to play for.

The Cowboys are bowl-eligible but came up woefully short in the Bedlam Game last week. Oklahoma State isn't any healthier than when it struggled with Iowa State at home, and it couldn't stop Oklahoma in the first half last week.

Pick: West Virginia +8.5

Louisville @ Kentucky (-3, 43.5)

It hasn't been pretty offensively for Kentucky lately, but that's not what's going to be the difference in the Bluegrass State's biggest rivalry. The Wildcats held Georgia to just 16 points last week, showing they haven't quit on the season. Head coach Mark Stoops will have them ready to shutdown Malik Cunningham like they did in last year's 31-point win in Louisville and 2019's 32-point victory at home. Will Levis won't need to do much again, and the Wildcats' run game should support the defense in a similar showing - important for regional recruiting.

Pick: Kentucky -3

Purdue @ Indiana (+10.5, 53.5)

This game only matters to Purdue if Iowa gets knocked off by Nebraska on Friday, so let's take the points with Indiana now before we find out what happens in that game. Even if the Huskers shock the Hawkeyes, this number is inflated. Jeff Brohm as a big favorite is usually a bad idea. And we saw last week that Tom Allen's Hoosiers are still engaged with a win at Michigan State. Indiana finds ways in the dark areas to stay in games, and it can grind its home finale into a close contest.

Pick: Indiana +10.5

Iowa State @ No. 4 TCU (-10, 47.5)

Best of luck if you need Matt Campbell to win a big pick'em between two equals. However, you can sign me up if you need his Iowa State teams to keep a game close against a more talented opponent.

TCU's streak of "just getting by" continued last week. Also, given how banged up the Horned Frogs are, this game won't be much fun with the Big 12 championship on the horizon. Campbell's teams are exactly the type to get up for their last game with a chance to spoil someone's undefeated season. That makes them valuable here.

Pick: Iowa State +10

Kansas @ No. 15 Kansas State (-11.5, 62.5)

Kansas has been good to us this campaign, but it's clear the team's ready for some time off to get fired up for a well-earned bowl game. The Jayhawks' fatal flaw is their run defense, and that's problematic in a matchup with Kansas State. The Wildcats will go "Marshawn Lynch" on you - running at you over and over and over and over. It'll be a long 60 minutes for Kansas, so even a spread this large may look short by the fourth quarter.

Pick: Kansas State -11.5

No. 12 Washington @ Washington State (+1.5, 60.5)

Washington State might be the best team you've never seen. The Cougars scored a win at Wisconsin and should have one over Oregon. Their other losses are what we'd call "boxscore competitive," and they're the only defense to contain USC's Caleb Williams this season.

Offensively, Cameron Ward should excel against Washington's shaky defense in what should be an electric Apple Cup. With the home-field advantage that The Palouse provides, expect Washington State to pull off the mini-upset in its biggest game of the season.

Pick: Washington State +1.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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