Let's start a game of blind resume for a trio of quarterbacks in their most recent season as a starter:
| Yards per comp. | Yards per game | TD | INT | QBR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 6.2 | 233.8 | 22 | 10 | 35.6 |
| Player B | 6.9 | 231.8 | 19 | 8 | 39.9 |
| Player C | 6.9 | 205.5 | 16 | 8 | 53.8 |
Player A is Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers legend should be headed to Canton in five years, but his drop-off in play made him comparable to Player B - Jared Goff in 2021.
Before we get to Player C and what the drop-off could be for whoever starts for Pittsburgh, let's take a look at what the market expectations are for a team that actually made the playoffs last year.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.0 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +1000 |
| Conference | +5000 |
| Super Bowl | +9000 |
The Ravens, Browns, and Bengals all have relatively high expectations, so it doesn't matter if we're not ready to buy into the presumption that the Steelers will be weakened; markets can only set Pittsburgh's win total so high.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CIN | +6.5 |
| 2 | NE | +1 |
| 3 | @CLE | N/A |
| 4 | NYJ | -3.5 |
| 5 | @BUF | +9.5 |
| 6 | TB | +5.5 |
| 7 | @MIA | +4.5 |
| 8 | @PHI | +3.5 |
| 10 | NO | -1.5 |
| 11 | CIN | +2.5 |
| 12 | @IND | +4.5 |
| 13 | @ATL | -2.5 |
| 14 | BAL | +2 |
| 15 | @CAR | +1 |
| 16 | LV | +1.5 |
| 17 | @BAL | +5.5 |
| 18 | CLE | N/A |
The Steelers opened last season in Buffalo as touchdown underdogs, lost every key stat category, and still won the game despite only 188 passing yards from Roethlisberger and 3.6 yards per rush. They get a similar situation in Cincinnati this year and are back in Buffalo at a projected point spread even higher than last season.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
The Steelers have proven they can win with Player C's numbers, which are from Mitch Trubisky's 2020 season. Trubisky was often a frustrating watch in Chicago, even though he quarterbacked the Bears to a pair of playoff appearances, but he's the veteran option.
The last time we saw Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, the team ran out rookies Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges in 2019 for 14 of 16 games. They combined for 2,828 passing yards, a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 18:17, and a QBR in the 30s. Despite the awful quarterback play, the Steelers went 9-6-1.
This is a telling example of how everything is relative in the betting market. While Pittsburgh's offense may not be its strength, it will be relative to the perception of most bettors. Whether they turn to Trubisky and his mobility or rookie Kenny Pickett, the Steelers have enough surrounding talent to play complementary football.
Weaknesses
Pittsburgh's strength in 2019 and 2020 was the defense's ability to carry the offense. However, despite T.J. Watt winning Defensive Player of the Year, the unit took a step back in 2021. The Steelers were in the back half of the NFL in yards per play allowed, opponents' yards per pass attempt, and takeaways in 2021. This group will need to return to its 2020 level.
Opportunities
Pittsburgh looked awful throughout the first half of the vast majority of games last year but excelled in the second half to get enough wins to make the playoffs. We'll credit the coaching staff. Tomlin's group had victories over Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cleveland (twice) that felt like they were done using smoke and mirrors. I believe those wins come from coaching continuity and teams being able to find edges in game-planning and special teams.
Threats
The other three AFC North teams are the biggest threat to Tomlin extending his non-losing-season streak, which is essentially what a bet on Pittsburgh's win total hinges on. The Steelers' season would also be torpedoed if Trubisky and Pickett play worse than Rudolph and Hodges did three years ago.
How to bet the Steelers
Pickett (+600) is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite because he's the most likely first-year quarterback to play. However, avoid him in this market for now because we're not sure he'll be the Week 1 starter.
Trubisky (+1200) is a sneaky choice for Comeback Player of the Year. After a season in Buffalo watching Josh Allen and listening to Brian Daboll, he may be in a better spot to use the talent that made him a No. 2 pick.
Tomlin (+3000) is a perfect candidate to get the credit for salvaging a transitional year. He'd need to make the playoffs, but given that Pittsburgh's +175 to go over eight in the alternative win total markets, it's worth a shot for a big payout.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
