After seven straight wins, capped by Bill Belichick's voodoo victory in the freezing cold Buffalo winds, it looked like the NFL coaching GOAT was headed for another Coach of the Year award. Then the New England Patriots relinquished the division by losing three of four to end the season and were annihilated in their return trip to Orchard Park for the playoffs.
The next time we saw Belichick, he was going way off the board at the NFL draft for guard Cole Strange - a pick befitting the young man's sir name. Has the venerable head coach lost it? As with everything in sports, the answer is maybe. The betting markets can't quite quit the Patriots, though.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +500 |
| Conference | +2500 |
| Super Bowl | +5000 |
There's nothing that says "we don't know either" from oddsmakers than an 8.5-win total in the NFL. Setting the line at .500 for a team as unlikely to be tremendous as they are to be terrible means the decision on these tickets will be up in the air for a while. Despite the uncertainty, there was no other number this could be. A nine-win total - asking the Pats to win 10 games - would have been too high. An eight-win total - asking the Pats to lose 10 games for an under - would have been too low.
Where the odds become interesting is the divisional market. One could argue that the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are taking up too much win probability.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @MIA | +2.5 |
| 2 | @PIT | -1 |
| 3 | BAL | PK |
| 4 | @GB | +5 |
| 5 | DET | -6.5 |
| 6 | @CLE | N/A |
| 7 | CHI | -6 |
| 8 | @NYJ | -2.5 |
| 9 | IND | PK |
| 11 | NYJ | -6 |
| 12 | @MIN | +1.5 |
| 13 | BUF | +3 |
| 14 | @ARZ | +2.5 |
| 15 | @LV | +3 |
| 16 | CIN | +1 |
| 17 | MIA | -1.5 |
| 18 | @BUF | +7 |
Belichick and Co. are getting points in Week 1, which will be hard to pass up. That game in Miami should go a long way to determine whether the Patriots are underdogs in their subsequent two contests. The season's final two months are loaded with toss-up matchups before a Week 18 game with the Bills. That contest will likely mean something to the standings, or it won't mean anything because Buffalo won the division as easily as its odds suggest. Either way, I'll want the points with New England.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
It's still all about coaching. Even though Josh McDaniels departed and the NFL know-it-alls have had a good laugh about the Patriots not knowing who would call plays, I'm going to assume Belichick has it under control. It's not even August, after all.
Mac Jones excelled as a rookie last year. The fact that I can't confidently tell you who the best receiver, running back, or tight end is on the roster is exactly what New England is trying to accomplish for Jones. Strange is one of a few minor changes to an offensive line that didn't have anyone graded lower than 73.0 last year, according to Pro Football Focus, and that player is no longer on the team.
The offense was largely average in 2021 but excelled in yards per pass attempt. The defense was also largely average but excelled in creating turnovers. On both sides of the ball, the Patriots did those most important things at a top-10 rate. With all but one projected defensive starter new to the system, continuity is there for Belichick's group to do their job.
Weaknesses
There's little in the way of peak talent that'll blow your mind for New England. The club opted to load its roster with good-not-great athletes who make themselves good football players with their knowledge, recognition, and efficiency. With that week-to-week baseline, this high floor welcomes all the NFL teams that seem content with beating themselves.
Opportunities
The Patriots won't beat themselves and thrive in close games in which their advantage comes from the small edges they get from their collective preparation and head coach. Getting points, even as few as two, will always be an opportunity, whether New England is favored or the underdog.
Threats
Not being able to keep up with a talented and well-coached team is the eventual end of the line for New England. The good news is that so few of those squads exist.
How to bet the Patriots
If you're looking for a +500 divisional bet that has the best chance to leave you thinking, "Well, of course, that happened," then this might be your play. The Patriots just need to be better than Miami and hope the Bills aren't all they're cracked up to be.
Needing to win multiple games against quality teams come playoff time probably spells doom for New England. By then, Belichick (+2000) may have already won Coach of the Year. Matt Judon (+5000) remains the most likely Defensive Player of the Year candidate on a club that may give up the fewest points this season.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
