For a team that made an exhilarating run to a conference championship game and hasn't made any significant roster changes, the 49ers sure have a lot of question marks just a few months later.
The lack of roster changes is, in a way, the upheaval. Jimmy Garoppolo is, as of this writing, still in San Francisco despite the plan to move him and elevate Trey Lance to the starting position. Deebo Samuel is, as of this writing, still around despite his own trade request as part of a contract dispute - something the 49ers likely didn't plan for at all.
If this were a video game, with the key pieces (currently) in place for the 49ers, there wouldn't be an issue, but that's not how it works in real life. The range of outcomes for San Francisco widens with a move toward Lance and a potentially discontented multi-positional star in Samuel.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.0 (+100/-120) |
| Division | +160 |
| Conference | +750 |
| Super Bowl | +1600 |
Since Samuel wasn't moved at the draft, it became increasingly clear that the 49ers weren't going to acquiesce to his trade demand. As a result, the market is working under the assumption that Lance - another assumption as starting quarterback - will have Samuel to rely on, making the Niners the fourth choice in the NFC.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CHI | -6.5 |
| 2 | SEA | -8 |
| 3 | @DEN | +2.5 |
| 4 | LAR | +1 |
| 5 | @CAR | -2.5 |
| 6 | @ATL | -6.5 |
| 7 | KC | +1 |
| 8 | @LAR | +4.5 |
| 10 | LAC | PK |
| 11 | @ARZ | -2.5 |
| 12 | NO | -4 |
| 13 | MIA | -3.5 |
| 14 | TB | PK |
| 15 | @SEA | -3 |
| 16 | WSH | -6 |
| 17 | @LV | +1.5 |
| 18 | ARZ | -3 |
There are two survivor pool opportunities to start the season for San Francisco if you're willing to take them on the road in Week 1 or in a divisional matchup in Week 2. The schedule gets considerably tougher after that, with tighter projected spreads. So if Lance can't get it done in those two games, a scarlet flag will be raised.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Kyle Shanahan gets credit for making it work with whoever is taking snaps, even if the quarterback's tools are limited. Is it really that easy? Obviously not. In some cases, having exceptional talents like George Kittle gives a coordinator more options. On the other hand, the offense became more efficient when the staff deployed Samuel out of the backfield - a creative use of the high-end talent.
The 49ers' defense was tied for third in the league in yards per play allowed, and they return the vast majority of the depth chart. The secondary was upgraded with an eye on forcing more takeaways, particularly when a front seven led by Nick Bosa creates the type of pressure good enough for third in sack percentage.
Weaknesses
Assuming Lance gets the full reins of the offense, it wouldn't be surprising if some growing pains come from inexperience, mixed in with the flash plays created by next-level athleticism. Turnovers are the great neutralizer for any high-octane offense.
Even with the addition of Charvarius Ward, the 49ers' secondary is still going to be the weak link. Between second-year corner Ambry Thomas, the well-traveled Darqueze Dennard, and the oft-injured Jason Verrett, there are no reliable playmakers.
Opportunities
The betting opportunities lie in the highs and lows for the 49ers, and as frustrating as it was at times during the regular season last year, I have had a belief in San Francisco relative to the betting markets. Until Garoppolo is dealt, there's a higher floor for the 49ers. A bet on San Francisco relies on Lance to be good, and if he is, the ceiling increases significantly.
Threats
In turn, a bet against the 49ers suggests that Garoppolo will be moved, and Lance will struggle enough to undermine the field position the 49ers' defense sets up for him. A Week 5 loss on the road at the Cardinals last year is the prime example, where Lance ran for 89 yards, but the Niners mustered just 10 points while losing numerous high-leverage plays.
How to bet the 49ers
An alternative win total of 11 is available at +250, which is a more interesting bet to me than taking the 49ers to win the division (+160), given the Rams aren't going anywhere and could win 13 games or more.
If Elijah Mitchell (+3500) or any other running back were allotted anything close to 250 carries, they'd become very interesting to win the rushing title. Bosa had 15.5 sacks in his first year back after missing a season with a torn ACL, and while he's no secret at 15-1 for Defensive Player of the Year, his candidacy is undeniable. Any pass-rusher has a chance at Defensive Rookie of the Year, so second-round pick Drake Jackson is in play since he could do a lot with a little playing time at 30-1.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
