The closest the Carolina Panthers will come to the Super Bowl this season might be when their fans watch the big game for the commercials. It appears Baker Mayfield will be the Week 1 starter for coach Matt Rhule, with his quarterback competition being Sam Darnold and the very green Matt Corral.
Rhule has never had the quarterback you would hope for when taking over a franchise. He's also finding out that building a championship-caliber NFL team is vastly different than rebuilding a college football program up to the middle tier.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +1000 |
| Conference | +6000 |
| Super Bowl | +13000 |
Oddsmakers have made the smallest adjustment upward for the Panthers with Mayfield joining the team, presumably taking just enough money on the over for the price to rise a handful of cents. Beyond that, Carolina's prospects for large-scale success aren't discernibly better.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | PK |
| 2 | @NYG | PK |
| 3 | NO | +1 |
| 4 | ARZ | +1.5 |
| 5 | SF | +2.5 |
| 6 | @LAR | +7.5 |
| 7 | TB | +5.5 |
| 8 | @ATL | -1.5 |
| 9 | @CIN | +7 |
| 10 | ATL | -4.5 |
| 11 | @BAL | +5.5 |
| 12 | DEN | +2.5 |
| 14 | @SEA | +1 |
| 15 | PIT | -1 |
| 16 | DET | -4 |
| 17 | @TB | +7.5 |
| 18 | @NO | +3 |
The big move stemming from Mayfield's trade to the Panthers is seen in Week 1. The Browns have gone from 4.5-point favorites to a pick'em. The market seems to think that Deshaun Watson definitely won't be available. Since Mayfield is no longer the backup plan, that means the sound you hear is Jacoby Brissett's music. It's debatable how much of that 4.5-point swing is the downgrade to Brissett versus the Panthers' upgrade to Mayfield.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Carolina's defense was sneaky good last year, ranking in the top 10 in both rush yards per attempt allowed (4.1) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.3), combining for the third-lowest yards per play allowed. The rush defense makes some sense with Derrick Brown anchoring the line, but a secondary perceived as quite thin held up surprisingly well in retrospect. That might have been due to a strong pressure rate from the front seven.
Offensively, Christian McCaffrey's return is the reason to be optimistic for whoever takes most of the snaps. Carolina's offense changes when he's on the field, especially as an ideal pass-catching option.
Weaknesses
The Panthers' offensive line needs to be overhauled after getting rated 31st by Pro Football Focus at the end of last season.
| OUT | IN | |
|---|---|---|
| LT | Cam Erving | Ikem Ekwonu |
| LG | Michael Jordan | Brady Christensen |
| C | Matt Paradis | Bradley Bozeman |
| RG | John Miller | Austin Corbett |
| RT | Taylor Moton | Taylor Moton |
Moton gets to stay because he had the best PFF rating of the group at 77.8. Otherwise, the rest of the offensive line should get revamped with first-round pick Ekwonu taking over someone's blindside and veterans Bozeman and Corbett added to the interior.
Of course, change doesn't always mean drastic improvement. However, if the Panthers' offense is suddenly clicking midway through the season, this might be the reason that no one's talking about.
Opportunities
McCaffrey's health, the gelling of the offensive line, and a healthy Mayfield playing with a chip on his shoulder that somehow adds to his effectiveness all add up to the possibility of this team clicking.
With nine games lined near a pick'em, the market at least thinks there's some hope for Carolina, but to do what?
Threats
McCaffrey's played less than 10 games in the last two seasons combined. History shows that you don't just get back to 100% of your former self when you miss that much time in the NFL. That said, 80% of its star at his peak would be welcome for Carolina.
The Panthers are likely competing with the Falcons to see who from the NFC South can talk themselves into being in wild-card contention. After two seasons, Rhule's lack of success due to his roster is one thing, but his in-game decision-making has been suboptimal. The NFL is too competitive to give away possessions and implied points from coaching calls alone.
How to bet the Panthers
Even considering where the games are played, I won't have the Panthers rated as highly as any of the teams they're facing in the first five contests this season - all are lined inside of a field goal. However, a bitter Mayfield is a guy I'm willing to back, and that's what we should get in Week 1.
If McCaffrey puts up numbers anywhere near those prior to his injury issues, then he should run away with Comeback Player of the Year (+750). One of his competitors for that award would be Mayfield, but what is he coming back from exactly? The days of McCaffrey lingering in the MVP conversation or atop the list of Offensive Players of the Year (+1600) might be over, so that's the better low-risk way to back his return.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
