Yes, there's still a bowl game to be played before we pivot to the national championship game. While I can't tell you why a standalone game between a massively disappointing 6-6 SEC team and a 7-5 Big-12 team with no quality wins exists on a Tuesday night in January, I can tell you it is, in fact, happening. And that's what betting is for.
LSU vs. Kansas State (-4.5, 47.5)
Line movement
LSU opened as a -2.5 favorite a month ago and it didn't take long for the market to realize that was a mistake. Bettors have had plenty of time to bet Kansas State at a bargain price, with the line making a slow climb to -4.5. The total actually rose from 46.5 to 48 before ticking down to 47.5.
On the field
The shoulder shrug emoji best represents LSU. New head coach Brian Kelly has other things to do, so first-year assistant Brad Davis is at the helm in NRG Stadium. There's a better chance this game gets stricken from LSU record books immediately than the team showing up with any sort of energy.
The big mystery surrounds the quarterback position for the Tigers, with Max Johnson transferring from LSU to Texas A&M. The Tigers could use Garrett Nussmeier if his redshirt can be kept, but they need a waiver so they can be exempt from burning his redshirt status. Whether you look at past NCAA practices or the line movement in this game, it seems clear that despite listing Nussmeier atop their depth chart, LSU will more likely be forced to use senior wide receiver Jontre Kirklin as a wildcat-style quarterback.
If that ends up being the case, we need to handicap this game by determining what to expect from the Kansas State defense. They are 27th-best in rush yards allowed per game despite a schedule that saw three of their four toughest opponents come to Manhattan.
Meanwhile, LSU uncharacteristically struggled to run the football this season. If it weren't for a 287-yard explosion by Tyrion Davis-Price against Florida, the Tigers would have been lower than 116th in the country in rushing yards per game. Naturally, Davis-Price is unavailable Tuesday, as he's headed to the NFL Draft.
The most reliable side of the ball for either team is the Kansas State offense, which is a wild sentence to type. But with veteran quarterback Skylar Thompson back for the bowl game, along with a healthier unit as a whole, it's actually true. Former quarterback and interim offensive coordinator Collin Klein knows how to use Thompson along with other potential game-breakers Deuce Vaughn and Daniel Imatorbhebhe. They could be explosive against an LSU defense that's been ravaged by opt-outs as well.
Pick: Kansas State -4.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
