The real battle Friday night will happen between your viewing needs and social obligations, as the CFP semifinals land on New Year's Eve for the first time since 2016.
While you can comfortably watch the Cotton Bowl without an eye on the clock, the Orange Bowl will need to be a true classic for it to be worth the relationship strife.
Jim Harbaugh's Michigan makes its long-awaited debut in the College Football Playoff, and its reward is a date with Georgia - the undisputed best team in college football this season prior to being punched in the mouth in the SEC championship game. Was the Bulldogs' loss simply a one-off, or an indication they're not as good as we once thought?
Michigan vs. Georgia (-7.5, 45)
Line movement
Outside of making a few appearances at -8.5, this line has mostly remained steady at -7.5 for Georgia. In a few locations, the line dipped to -7 overnight on Wednesday only to pop back up to -7.5. The total opened low at 43 and has quietly risen to 45 in the last week.
Michigan's offense vs. Georgia's defense
Georgia does what Michigan does, only better.
Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum have been the key to the Wolverines offensively, but they will run into a literal wall by the name of Jordan Davis on Friday night. The core of the outstanding Bulldogs' defensive line is not something Michigan has had to deal with in games against Iowa and Ohio State - their last two significant matchups.
I backed Michigan in the Big Ten championship, and Iowa's vaunted run defense simply couldn't prevent the big play. Georgia's defense - which gave up the third-fewest yards per carry and yards per game - takes it personally if you go anywhere near the end zone, giving up just three rushing touchdowns this season. The next lowest total was six (Texas A&M).
Georgia's defense got a dose of reality in the SEC championship game, but it wasn't the first time Alabama exposed some weaknesses in a very good team, nor will it be the last. Having Bryce Young is going to help with that. For as good as Cade McNamara has been in commanding one of the nation's most efficient offenses, he doesn't provide the same consistent threat down the field that can beat the Bulldogs.
Georgia's offense vs. Michigan's defense
For all the criticism Stetson Bennett endured after a subpar SEC championship game, his statistics are virtually the same as McNamara's. The thing that hurt Bennett is he wasn't able to keep up with Young. Hours later, anything McNamara did looked good in comparison to the horrific Iowa offense.
Obviously, the Wolverines' defense has proven its worth, with Aidan Hutchinson getting a front-row seat at the Heisman ceremony as the runner-up and David Ojabo scheduling team meetings at the quarterback with him. However, a defense that good is always going to look great against Iowa, Penn State, and other Big Ten teams not known for their offense.
Against Ohio State and their pass-happy offense, C.J. Stroud had 394 yards and two touchdowns, but Michigan was able to outscore the Buckeyes that day in Ann Arbor. They weren't quite able to outscore the Spartans in East Lansing, who got almost 200 yards on the ground and five touchdowns from Kenneth Walker.
Georgia is multi-dimensional and uses the mobility of Bennett, who is more willing and dangerous on the ground than both Stroud and the Spartans' Payton Thorne. Zamir White and James Cook provide equally dangerous options in the backfield.
The final wrinkle is the status of Dax Hill, who was reportedly left behind on the trip to Miami due to a COVID-19 issue. The star safety would theoretically play a major role in defending a key Georgia weapon - tight end Brock Bowers.
Special teams
Michigan has the highest-rated special teams unit in the country, according to Football Outsiders, in part thanks to Lou Groza Award winner Jake Moody, the nation's best kicker. Georgia is much closer to average in special teams, but Jack Podlesny made 18 of 22 field goals this season, so it's not an area of weakness, either.
How to bet the game
Somewhere along the way from being touchdown favorites vs. Alabama to losing to Nick Saban's juggernaut, Georgia seemed to lose its urgency. Perhaps beating the daylights out of every SEC opponent - and Clemson - was a bad thing? While it was nowhere to be found against 'Bama, the reality-inducing loss will certainly help the Bulldogs rediscover their sense of urgency.
A month of preparation for a team Georgia is better than should set Kirby Smart up for a rematch with Saban. Meanwhile, a lack of market faith for the Bulldogs' coach-and-quarterback combo or the always prevalent Michigan support might provide a flat 7 to bet on before kickoff. We'll wait for that, but will still back the Dawgs at the current price if it doesn't come. Expect them to hold the Wolverines' offense down in something resembling a 27-13 type of game.
Pick: Georgia -7.5 (look for -7 and play at -120 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
