Big Ten win totals and best bets

College football season kicks off in August and Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas released its win totals for the Big Ten conference Monday. Two familiar faces open with the highest numbers, while lowly Rutgers is expected to have another tough season.

Ohio State (37) and Michigan (42) have combined to win 79 Big Ten titles and that trend is expected to continue in 2019. The Wolverines opened with the highest win total at 10.5, and Ohio State is right behind at 10. Both schools are among the five favorites to contend for a national championship this season. The teams have the fourth- and fifth-shortest odds to win the College Football Playoff with Michigan at 12-1 and the Buckeyes 14-1.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have the lowest win total in the Big Ten at 2.5. Two-and-a-half wins may not seem like a lot, but it would more than double Rutgers' win total from a year ago when they finished 1-11. While no one expects the Scarlet Knights to compete for a conference title, they recorded three wins in two of the last three seasons, which would put them over their 2019 total.

Here's the complete list of Big Ten win totals:

Best Bets

Minnesota Over 7.5 (-150)

Over 7.5 on Minnesota is my favorite college football win-total bet of the season. The Golden Gophers were the youngest team in college football last year, with freshmen accounting for a nation-leading 32.9 percent of their starts. Starting all those young players will pay off for Minnesota this year. The Gophers return 37 of 44 players from last season's two-deep roster that finished 7-6. That's 90 percent of the offensive production and 66 percent of the defensive production coming back.

Returning talent isn't the only reason to like Minnesota - the Gophers' schedule also doesn't include Big Ten favorites Michigan or Ohio State. Minnesota gets a soft early-season slate with its first five games against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, and Illinois. The Gophers have a good chance to be 5-0 when they host Nebraska on Oct. 12, and their next two games are against Big Ten bottom-feeders Maryland and Rutgers.

S&P+ ranks Minnesota No. 33 entering the season and projects 7.5 wins for the Gophers with 8.9 wins as their ceiling. Everything lines up for Minnesota to reach nine wins this year and challenge for the Big Ten West title if sophomore quarterback Zack Annexstad stays healthy. I'll be on the over 7.5.

Michigan Under 10.5 (-190)

Michigan is a very good football team, but for my money, the Wolverines enter 2019 overvalued.

Michigan's win total is up there with Alabama (11.5), Clemson (11.5), and Georgia (11). The Wolverines simply aren't in that class. I have them as a 9-10 win team this year after they went 10-3 last season with more talent. Now, Michigan must replace six defensive starters. For all the Shea Patterson hype, he hasn't become an elite quarterback, with 39 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions in two seasons as a starter.

There's still a lot to like. Michigan has four returning starters on what should be one of the nation's top offensive lines. Despite losing six starters, we know Jim Harbaugh's team will be tough on the defensive side of the ball. However, looking solely at numbers, 10.5 wins for a team that faces Army, Wisconsin, Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State makes me strongly consider the under.

S&P+ projects nine wins for Michigan with a ceiling of 10.1. That sounds right. I wouldn't bet the under at Caesars because it's juiced to -190, but I'll be looking at what other books offer on the Wolverines' win total.

Illinois Over 4 (-110)

Lovie Smith is 9-27 in three years as Illinois head coach. To say he's on the hot seat is an understatement.

Though I'm not sure if Smith will save his job, the schedule does set up Illinois to go over four wins in 2019. Granted, no opponent is a gimmie for the Fighting Illini right now, but if Lovie can't win five games with a schedule that includes Akron, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, and Rutgers, he deserves to be fired.

Again, when it comes to win totals, I'm looking for value. The schedule and 17 returning starters, many who are upperclassmen, put Illinois in position to post five or six wins. If the Illini can take advantage of a soft non-conference schedule and start off 3-0, they'll only need to defeat Rutgers at home to get to four wins and a push. I like Illinois' chances of going over its modest win total.