As the College Football Playoff committee members lay their heads down on their pillows Tuesday night, they must have been filled with a sense of peace and calm. With ten weeks in the books, the college football season has produced four undefeated conference champions, undoubtedly, the CFP committee’s dream. But we’ve all seen this movie before and know how undefeated seasons can go off the rails in November. Here’s a look at what the “best of the rest” need to do to give the playoff committee some sleepless nights.
No. 5 Ohio State
It’s logical to start with the Buckeyes because they control their own destiny. For Urban Meyer and Co., it’s "win and you’re in." Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes a pair of road trips to conference doormats (sorry, Michigan State, it’s true) and its showdown with Michigan on Thanksgiving weekend at the Shoe.
If the Buckeyes reel off three wins, they’ll face the Big Ten West champion in Indianapolis as a sizeable favorite. Vegas insiders predict that they would be installed as a ten-point favorite over Wisconsin, and a three-touchdown-plus favorite against either Nebraska or Minnesota.
Essentially, Ohio State’s entire season comes down to "The Game," which hasn’t featured a top-five matchup between the Wolverines and Buckeyes since 2006 when the two schools duked it out as the first and second ranked teams in the BCS. Just like that meeting, the winner is all but assured a crack at the national title. For what it’s worth, ESPN's Power Football Index gives Ohio State a 46.7 percent chance of defeating Michigan at home.
No. 6 Louisville
The Cardinals need to keep their head on a swivel because they not only need to leapfrog a couple teams ahead of them, but there remains a realistic possibility that a team or two behind them could surge ahead in the final rankings.
It goes without saying that Louisville needs to win out, but more, they need to win convincingly over a slightly underrated slate of Wake Forest, Houston, and Kentucky. Back in August that trio appeared to feature two cellar dwellers and a potential CFP party crasher. In the topsy-turvy month of November, it features three teams headed to bowl games (pop that champagne, Mark Stoops).
Houston’s fall from grace undoubtedly hurts the Cards, but the potential for Kentucky to win the SEC East could give UL a nice boost in the season finale. Three double-digit wins in their final three games is realistic, as ESPN’s FPI gives them a 79 percent chance of winning out. The problem for UL is the other games they have to watch from the couch. They’ll likely need Washington to fall in the Pac-12 championship game and both Wisconsin and Auburn to fail to pull off significant upsets of Ohio State and Alabama, respectively.
The last piece of the puzzle is that Bobby Petrino’s bunch will also need Michigan to handle Ohio State on the road, thereby taking the prospect of two Big Ten teams making the CFP off the table. As you can see, despite sitting at sixth overall, Louisville needs a lot to go right for them.
No. 7 Wisconsin
The Badgers are the best two-loss team in the nation. A seven-point road loss to Michigan and an overtime defeat to Ohio State are all that’s keeping them out of the top four. The first step for the Badgers making an improbable run to the semifinals starts with their remaining schedule.
Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota stand between them and a Big Ten West title. The FPI loves the Badgers and gives them better than an 83 percent chance against each of the final three regular season opponents. Ideally an undefeated Michigan would meet them in Indianapolis, providing an opportunity to springboard over Louisville.
Would the committee place a two-loss Wisconsin in the CFP over a one-loss Michigan, based solely on the Badgers' conference championship? That, as they say, is the $64,000 question. Finally, just like Louisville, Wisconsin would need Alabama to handle Auburn to prevent a scenario in which the SEC gets to send two programs to the CFP.
No. 9 Auburn
The Tigers have strung together six straight wins - some miraculous (LSU), some going away (Arkansas), and others that qualify as thankful escapes (Vanderbilt). However you slice it, Auburn is one of the nation’s hottest teams and the Tigers' 1-2 start is a distant memory.
Thanks to Alabama’s shutout victory over the Coach O-led Bayou Bengals, Auburn’s road to Atlanta couldn’t be more straightforward. Walk into Bryant-Denny Stadium, beat Nick Saban on his own turf, and your reward will be a SEC title game against a lackluster Eastern division champion. The counterbalance to the simplistic path is that Auburn will have long odds of pulling it off.
The FPI only gives the Tigers a 21.3 percent chance of shocking Alabama and a 12.3 percent chance of winning out. And, just as is the case with Wisconsin, they’d likely require a little help. Namely, a loss by Washington to either Washington State in the Apple Cup or in the Pac-12 championship game.
