In the excitement of every game, the anticipation of every shot and the wonder of every memorable performance by a star player, it's easy to forget how quickly things can be turned on their head in the NBA.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers have been a stark reminder of that unpredictability early this season.
The Thunder are a perennial 55-win team who've been to the Western Conference Final in three of the last four seasons, led by the reigning MVP in Kevin Durant, another top-10 superstar in Russell Westbrook and a third All-Star caliber talent in Serge Ibaka.
A month ago, they were easily one of the five clear cut favorites to win the championship this season.
A couple of weeks into 2014-15, they're now living and dying with the status of players like Perry Jones III (no disrespect to PJ3, who has played well to start the year) and signing journeymen like Ish Smith out of desperation.
"It is what it is," head coach Scott Brooks said before the Thunder took on the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday. "We have to figure out how to stay in games and make it competitive."
From dreaming of confetti to just trying to keep games competitive. That's what a month of bad luck can do.
"This is obviously rare," Brooks said of the unprecedented string of injuries that's bit his team. "There's no book to read about how to approach it or how to navigate your way through these waters."
Reggie Jackson says sometimes he questions why them, but the Thunder guard also understands that OKC was fortunate for years.
"We've been a team that's been blessed over the years of our franchise being in Oklahoma City that really avoided injury," Jackson said in the Thunder locker room Tuesday.
"We've had a few tough ones now with Russell two years ago, Serge last year and KD as well this year. Everyone just continues to go down. But for the most part we've been a healthy team, so we've been blessed in that facet," Jackson said before playing through a leg injury himself against the Raptors.
Including the postseason, Durant suited up for 535 out of a possible 549 games before a Jones fracture was discovered in his right foot last month. Westbrook played in 439 consecutive games to start his career before suffering a knee injury during the 2013 playoffs.
The Thunder also had James Harden, of course, for a chunk of that time, but haven't been able to get over the championship hump.
Now Russ can't seem to stay on the floor (he's currently out with a broken hand) and everyone will be holding their breath when KD returns.
The Thunder may very well make a championship run if both can return to peak form this season, and they do still have time together beyond this year. But Durant will be a free agent in 2016, and this whole Thunder fiasco is at least a reminder that titles can never be presumed, no matter how loaded with young talent a team may be.
Spurs-type longevity is exceptionally rare, not the norm.
Less than 10 months ago, the Pacers were 33-7 and led by a 23-year-old MVP candidate. It seemed their foray into the true contenders pantheon had only just begun.
Ten months later, Paul George is sidelined after a gruesome, freak leg injury suffered in a Team USA scrimmage, Lance Stephenson is playing on a honeycomb floor in Charlotte, David West and George Hill are banged up, and Roy Hibbert is left to steer a ship where Donald Sloan's scoring is an X-factor and the team is relying on A.J. Price for guard depth.
The Pacers suddenly appear closer to shifting back into full fledged rebuild mode than they do to sniffing contender status again.
In a 30-team league, it's incredibly hard to win even one championship when everything goes right, let alone when you factor in the unpredictability of injuries and carouseling personnel.
Heck, as the Pacers have now learned, it's tough to even remain legitimately competitive in the title picture for longer than a half-season, let alone a full year or two.
Titles and sustainable contention are always the goal for management, and are often assumed by fans and pundits alike when a seemingly surefire young team is assembled. But as the Thunder and Pacers remind us early on this season, not everything can be controlled on the court, no matter how much talent you collect.
Sometimes a team's first shot at glory is also its last - a cold reality even harder to swallow in OKC, where Harden was let go in hopes of cheaper, sustainable contention years down the road.
