If Braylon Mullins' game-winner to complete UConn's improbable comeback over Duke didn't excite you enough, then this should: Both Final Four spreads are expected to close under two points for the first time in over 60 years, setting up unbelievable theater Saturday night.
UConn and Illinois will kick off the festivities in Indianapolis, while Arizona versus Michigan has the potential to be one of the best tournament games of all time. Michigan and Arizona respectively own the third- and fourth-highest KenPom ratings ever, creating a thrilling matchup with a trip to Monday's title game on the line. We've got you covered with a spread pick from each game and player props.
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π Pick: UConn +1.5
I'm done betting against Dan Hurley, who's undefeated against the spread in the Sweet 16 and onward. UConn's win in the Elite Eight demonstrated how much it wears opponents down over 40 minutes. After escaping Michigan State and Duke last weekend, the Huskies have a favorable matchup against Illinois.
Not to take away anything from Illinois' run, but its last three wins came against VCU, Houston, and Iowa. That's not quite the gauntlet UConn has gone through. The Fighting Illini possess the nation's best offense, but the Huskies own a top-10 defensive unit. This game will come down to whether Illinois can successfully limit UConn's offensive attack, which I'm skeptical of.
The Illini have mostly faced offenses - in conference play and the NCAA Tournament - that rely on guard creation and ball screens. But that's not how UConn operates. The Huskies' constant movement and off-ball screening make them incredibly difficult to guard, even though they don't have as much talent as previous squads. Illinois' personnel, mostly because of its size, isn't equipped to guard UConn's offense away from the ball. In a coin-flip game like this, it's also worth looking at the coaching matchup to find an edge. Hurley is in his third Final Four in four seasons and is undoubtedly the best coach in the sport. With nearly a week to prepare, he'll likely outcoach Brad Underwood, who's making his first Final Four appearance. - Oshtry
π Pick: Michigan -1.5
These are the top two teams in KenPom's net rating metric this season, and they're both among the top five highest-rated teams in KenPom's history. So, this contest isn't just the game of the year; it's a historically good matchup that doesn't come around often.
The biggest advantage in this game lies with Michigan, which is comfortable shooting from distance. Arizona, meanwhile, sits 338th in 3-point attempts per contest. The Wolverines have arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the country, averaging 6.1 blocks per game - the second-highest mark among D-I teams. It will be tough for the Wildcats to score inside, where they usually dominate. I foresee Michigan forcing them to play an unfamiliar style.
The Wolverines are shooting an insane 45% from deep throughout the tournament, and I think that's where Saturday's game will be won. I'll pick Michigan to cover this small spread and head to the national championship. - Deeg
π Pick: Alex Karaban over 12.5 points (-115)
Alex Karaban's five-point outing in the Elite Eight almost sent UConn home, but that was a blip in what's otherwise been a solid tournament for the senior. Karaban scored at least 17 points in each of the first three tourney games. Even when he struggled against Duke, the volume existed, as he finished 2-of-10 from the field and 1-of-6 from three.
I'd expect Karaban's efficiency to improve versus Illinois, given the advantageous matchup. The Huskies will use off-ball actions to drag the Illini bigs away from the basket and create mismatches for Karaban. Illinois prioritizes cutting off drives, often surrendering catch-and-shoot threes, so Karaban should have plenty of looks from deep. I trust the nearly 38% 3-point shooter to have a bounce-back game. - Oshtry
π Pick: Brayden Burries over 2.5 made threes (+135)
Brayden Burries is the only Wildcat who's made at least 50 threes this season. At this point, everyone knows Arizona can't shoot and rarely even attempts threes. It would much rather bully opponents in the paint and on the offensive glass. Although Michigan has a stronger front line than most, the Wildcats' approach won't change. The Wolverines are likely to sell out to protect the rim by packing the paint, sitting in gaps, and doubling in the post.
Burries will be guarded consistently because he's a 40% 3-point shooter. However, opportunities will be there for Arizona's sharpshooter, who has drilled at least three 3-pointers in three of the Wildcats' four tournament games. - Oshtry
π Pick: David Mirkovic over 12.5 points (-115)
Since mid-January, Mirkovic has averaged 14.9 points per game, and the freshman will cause fits for UConn's half-court defense Saturday. He can score going downhill and light up opposing defenses from deep. Mirkovic has been a massive part of Illinois' pick-and-roll offense of late, meaning he'll have the ball in his hands often versus the Huskies.
He tallied eight points against UConn in November but played just 18 minutes, his fewest in a game this year. Mirkovic has exceeded 12.5 points in eight of his last 13 contests. I think there's a ton of value here, as this number feels too low. - Deeg
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