And then there were eight. Although this NCAA Tournament has already produced more games decided by 20 or more points than any before it, we've also had our fair share of thrilling finishes - and we should see more in these intriguing quarterfinal matchups. We've got you covered with a pick for all four Elite Eight contests.
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Sunday's slate
π Pick: Tennessee +7.5
Michigan has rolled through the tournament without facing much adversity, but it'll likely encounter its first roadblock here.
Tennessee matches up well against a Wolverines squad that thrives on the glass. The Volunteers rank third in total rebounding and first in offensive boards per game. We saw this play out against Iowa State as Tennessee posted an absurd plus-21 rebounding advantage. Forward Felix Okpara - a key cog in the ninth-ranked defense in KenPom's efficiency metric - is an elite shot-blocker and interior defender who can give Michigan's bigs fits.
Michigan likes to play fast, but Tennessee can throw a wrench into that game plan - the team ranks 245th in tempo. That's huge for underdogs covering a spread. The Volunteers have also been great at keeping games close over the last couple of months, as they haven't lost by more than seven points in 20 straight contests. I like Tennessee to give the 1-seed Wolverines a fight on Sunday afternoon. - Deeg
π Pick: Duke -4.5
It's hard to ignore Dan Hurley's 9-0 record against the spread with UConn in the Sweet 16 or later. But that streak must end at some point, and it will end against Duke. The Blue Devils might've faced their toughest test of the tournament in Friday's physical outing against a well-coached St. John's group.
Duke has struggled recently against frontcourt size and teams that pressure Cameron Boozer away from the rim. St. John's had the personnel to challenge Duke's offense. Instead, the Blue Devils only attempted 14 threes and dominated inside. If the Red Storm couldn't stop Duke, nobody can. While the Huskies were impressive against Michigan State, they don't have the frontcourt to stop Duke. Plus, Duke shot 16 more free throws than St. John's. The Blue Devils own real estate at the free-throw line this tournament, and that spells trouble for a Huskies team that's 227th in the nation in foul rate.
Finally, Duke is healthy at the right time. Patrick Ngongba II returned earlier this tournament, and Caleb Foster came back for the Sweet 16 after missing the last three weeks. Foster scored 11 points in 19 minutes. At full strength, Duke - which has lost one game since Jan. 1 - is unstoppable. - Oshtry
Saturday's slate
π Pick: Arizona -5.5
Arizona is an unstoppable force defying everything we know about modern basketball. The formula for most teams these days is to deploy shooters and fire a ton of threes. The Wildcats have gone in the other direction, recording the lowest 3-point rate among power conference teams. So, how do they own the fourth-best offense? By dominating inside and relentlessly crashing the offensive boards to create extra scoring chances. Not a single team in the country is equipped to deal with Arizona's size and rebounding prowess; Purdue certainly isn't.
As prolific as Purdue's offense is, the Boilermakers barely - and I mean barely - snuck past Texas, and they struggled versus Miami in the Round of 32. Arizona, meanwhile, has the sport's third-best defense and has won all three of its tournament games convincingly. Purdue doesn't have the athleticism to keep the Wildcats off the glass, which is key to staying in games against them. The Boilermakers' lucky run will end Saturday night, while Arizona's inevitable journey will continue on to the Final Four. - Oshtry
π Pick: Illinois team total over 73.5
This line is discounted because Illinois' elite offense had an off night against Houston. The Fighting Illini shot just 43% but still scored 65 points and now get a better matchup versus Iowa.
The Hawkeyes rank 166th in opponent 3-point field-goal percentage, which is where the Illini thrive. They attempt the ninth-most shots from deep among all D-I programs, thanks in large part to sharpshooters Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic. They also average 84.2 points and rank second in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. But Illinois' biggest advantage is on the glass, where the team is ninth in offensive rebounding; Iowa is 355th. The Illini should have plenty of opportunities for second-chance points Saturday.
Everyone knows the Hawkeyes like to slow the game down, but that approach fits into the strengths of the Illini, who rank 325th in tempo. Illinois scored 75 points when these teams met in January, and I expect the Illini's offense to bounce back in the Elite Eight. - Deeg
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