Last season was one of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments in recent memory. Only three teams seeded higher than No. 10 won a game, and none of them made the Sweet 16. No seed higher than No. 12 advanced past the first round.
In the era of the transfer portal and NIL money, it's increasingly difficult for small schools to compete with their power conference foes. It feels like the days of a 15- or 16-seed taking down one of the best teams in the sport are over.
That said, this year's March Madness will still have upsets. While the top teams in the country stand out, the middle of the pack is very average. There are tons of opportunities for teams in the 7 vs. 10, 6 vs. 11, and even 5 vs. 12 games to make a Cinderella journey.
Here's a look at some of the most likely candidates.
South Florida
It's a rare thing to say about about a lower-seeded mid-major team, but South Florida is the more athletic group in its Round of 64 matchup against Louisville. The Bulls rank No. 12 in dunks and are the 15th-fastest team in the nation. They use their size and physicality to get to the hoop at will, ranking second in the country in rim attempts per game.
On the other side, Louisville relies on skill and finesse. The Cardinals are No. 4 nationally in the share of shots taken from beyond the arc - 52.8% of their attempts are threes. If they aren't hitting from long range, there's not much else the Cardinals do well. Case in point: Louisville is 10-2 against top-100 opponents when it makes at least 33% of its threes and 4-8 when it shoots below that clip.
If Louisville has a monster game from beyond the arc, South Florida's athleticism and rim pressure won't matter. But if star Cardinals point guard Mikel Brown Jr. can't return from the back injury that's kept him out for the last two weeks, or backcourt mate Ryan Conwell has a cold shooting game, this Louisville squad is certainly beatable.
If South Florida did advance, the Bulls would likely meet a Michigan State squad known for its defense and rebounding that would probably be a stiffer test. But in this era, even one win as an 11-seed would be a great accomplishment.
Santa Clara
Three of the four 7 vs. 10 matchups feature a power conference team as the lower seed. Those teams don't qualify as true bracket-busters, as they're relatively even with their opponents on paper. Instead, let's turn our eyes to Santa Clara against Kentucky.
Kentucky famously has one of the most expensive rosters in the country, reportedly spending over $20 million on its players. Santa Clara, meanwhile, is entering its first NCAA Tournament in 30 years.
The Broncos have been solid against power conference opponents this year, producing a 19-point win at Xavier, an 11-point victory over Minnesota, and a narrow loss to Arizona State in which they once led by 19 points. While none of those teams are of Kentucky's caliber, the Wildcats are vulnerable in this matchup.
Santa Clara is 35th in KenPom's rankings, which is higher than nine SEC squads. Kentucky has lost three games to teams ranked below the Broncos, including one at home versus Missouri. The first-round foes also have a common opponent in Gonzaga. Although Santa Clara dropped all three of its meetings with the Zags, the deficits were 12, eight, and 11 points. Compare that to Kentucky, which lost to the Bulldogs by a whopping 35 points in December.
If the Broncos do upset the Wildcats, though, an even tougher matchup with Iowa State would almost certainly await.
Northern Iowa
St. John's seems to have been underseeded on the 5-line, considering Rick Pitino's group went 28-6 - including 18-2 in the Big East - and secured a league tournament title Saturday in a dominant win over UConn. The committee did the Red Storm no favors with their matchup, either, as Northern Iowa looks to play spoiler.
The Panthers rank 24th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, trailing only St. John's, UConn, and Seton Hall among Big East teams. Their greatest strengths on that end are forcing opponents to win with jumpers and limiting extra possessions. They rarely turn the ball over, allow offensive rebounds, or send players to the free-throw line.
That creates a potentially difficult matchup for St. John's, which thrives in havoc. The Red Storm crashes the offensive glass at will, forces a ton of turnovers, and uses their physicality to get to the free-throw line often (37th-highest rate in the country). Northern Iowa will be hell-bent on preventing those actions.
Of course, there's a world in which St. John's is too big and physical and Northern Iowa's game plan is rendered obsolete. But the Red Storm have a scarcity of playmaking guards. If the Panthers can make other players become offensive focal points, they'll have a chance at a big upset.
Akron
If JT Toppin were available, this game would be pegged as a surefire blowout, not to mention Texas Tech almost certainly would've been higher than a 5-seed. Without their superstar, the Red Raiders have become largely dependent on threes; at least 45% of their shots have come from deep in every game he's missed, including over 60% in two of their last three.
That's music to the ears of the Zips, who are one of the 20 shortest groups in the country and have one rotation player taller than 6-foot-6. In Akron's lone power conference game this season, Purdue outscored the Zips 52-28 inside the arc and outrebounded them 45-26.
But even though Texas Tech now lacks the personnel to punish the undersized Akron down low, its backcourt duo of Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell holds the advantage over MAC Tournament MVP Tavari Johnson and MAC championship hero Shammah Scott.
Both teams are among the top 15 3-point shooting squads in the country. If Akron is the hotter team Friday, it can come away with a win. But at minimum, the Zips shouldn't get pummeled on the interior, which is often the biggest issue for mid-majors. Of the five potential upsets outlined here, this one is the least likely to happen, but the path to a surprise victory does exist.
Miami (OH)
After much debate over its inclusion in the NCAA Tournament, 31-1 Miami (Ohio) will begin its journey at the First Four in Dayton, where it will have to take down SMU to reach the Round of 64. The Mustangs are 1-5 in their last six games, and the status of injured starter B.J. Edwards remains in question, putting the RedHawks in position to potentially steal a win.
If they do move on, a fascinating tilt against Tennessee - perhaps the sport's most physical team - would follow. The Volunteers rank No. 1 in offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 45.1% of their misses on the year. Miami is a good defensive rebounding group, but it hasn't faced a power conference opponent all season and has played only one team among the top 75 in offensive rebounding. In that meeting, the RedHawks lost the rebounding battle 46-31 to Kent State.
Still, Tennessee hasn't proven that it can score consistently when generating second chances. In games against top-100 teams in which the Volunteers grabbed 50% of their misses, they've produced just a 4-4 record.
One area of Miami's game that's never in question is its shotmaking ability (sixth nationally in effective field goal percentage). The Volunteers' switching defense forces opponents to make highly difficult shots, which the RedHawks can do. Miami will have an opportunity to upset Rick Barnes' squad, but only if it gets past SMU first.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
